Pattern Reading Questions for Saturday at PIM

[dlf]

Hi All,
I\'m a semi-regular TG user, by no means a solid pattern-reader. Was hoping someone here could lend a hand with a few questions I have about Saturday\'s Pimlico card.

Race 9 (The Barbaro): Horse #7, Wesley, runs an 11 in his lone two year old start. Then pairs up 4.3s at GP at 7F and 1M in 23 day span. Stretching out to 1 1/8 at AQU, finally breaks his maiden, but running 2+ points slower. Is this a reaction to his paired tops? To the added distance? To both? And how do we view his prospects for today? Leaving aside the distance questions, do we feel the bounce was relatively small enough that he can now take another step forward, or at least get back to his top?

Race 4: Horse #2 (PP#4) Let Me Be Frank  83 lifetime starts(!) for this 6 year old. Ran 24 times last year and got down to a \"5\" twice, both in routes. Each time, he reacted back to double digits. (In fact, he only had two other races below 10 last year.)
Runs another route 5 first time out this year, then bounces to a 10.2, then a 20. Jumps back up to a 5 in a route, gets 8 weeks off (which is a lot for him) and a trainer change, and then....pairs the 5 in a 5F sprint in his 83rd career start, which appears to be his first paired top of his life below 11!
So, my question is...what\'s he supposed to do today?

Thanks in advance for any guidance, and Jerry, hope I didn\'t disclose too much proprietary info...feel free to delete if I did.

[jimbo66]

dlf,

In case TGAB or TGJB don\'t get around to answering this before the race, I will give you an opinion (for what its worth).

We can\'t know whether the reaction by Wesley is because of the distance or just a reaction to the \"4\" he ran combined with the 3 weeks rest.  The \"clues\" would say it is not the distance.  El Prado\'s offspring are a bit better going 1 mile and longer, than they are sprinting, so it would seem the distance should not have been a problem.  The thoropattern says the horse has a 15% chance to run a new top and 39% to pair up.  That seems about right to me.  I would \"pencil\" in a pair and analyze the race from there.  There are two horses faster, the rail and D\'Tara.  The rail is in awful form and as the 8-5 ML favorite, seems like a bet against.  D\'Tara ran a 4 point new top and now comes back in 3 weeks.  Tough spot.  I think your horse is the bet.  He actually has post 6 or better, because the 2 ran today.  If he works out a trip and pairs, he has a shot to win, and at 5-1 is good value.

Tough to like \"Let me be Frank\".  The absolute best you could give him here would be a \"5\" and as you point out, the last pair up is his first in the past 4 years.  Now he comes back on 3 weeks rest, a scenario where he has bounced many many times before.  The \"5\" would be competitive here, but at 5-1, I don\'t think you can bet on it.  The only thing that would convince me otherwise would be if the pair up came after a claim, which it did, but the claim was by a \"move up\" trainer or at least by a very astute one.  I am no expert on the midlantic circuit, but that doesn\'t seem to be the case here.  \"off the glass\" is going to be tough in this spot.  The horse is ouchy, as we can see by the gappy racing schedule, but the ouchy ones usually fire their best shots off the bench, fresh, which this one will be.  If he fires, he is a likely winner.

Good luck

[dlf]

Thanks, Jimbo. Agree with you on Wesley and the other two you mentioned being the next two best choices, with Spurrier a toss.
I\'m playing the P4, however, and I\'m singling what looks like the chalk in leg 2, and the 2nd choice in leg 3, so I need a price in the 1st leg. Maybe I\'m reaching, though. Do plan on using Off the Glass, as well, but will be rooting against him, and hoping for Frank or Wooded. .

[RICH]

Anyone out there love that 10th race at Pimlico today? The best bet of the day at big odds, if you have the sheets, you have to know who it is.

[Rick B.]

My guess is the #1 Headandtales with that buried race, but...is there some reason why you are not very leery of #6 Stay Close?

I know, 6 year old, new top last, back in three weeks, but this horse is improving with age...10-13\'s as a 3 year old, 7\'s and 8\'s at age 4, 3\'s and 4\'s last year...this is my key horse here.

Haven\'t decided whether to use Shakis underneath, or toss him completely.

[TGAB]

Think it\'s the pattern more than the added distance which accounted for his reaction last out. The sire profile as Jim points out speaks to the route prevalence shown by El Prado offspring. The damside sibling data just strengthens this preference.

Now as regards the pattern, Wesley established an 11 top at 2 and then jumped up 6-1/4 points in his first start at three. That\'s huge and the fact that he paired it up on three weeks rest was impressive. That he bounced last time out, three weeks subsequent, is not unexpected. One big effort can knock you out and often if one doesn\'t, two will. As a matter of fact this is more the norm than the succession of tops. This pattern is what we used to call a pair of tops and an off race. And often this type of pattern results in a forward move off the bounce. Younger horses snap back quicker than their older brethren. So I foresee a rebound here for Wesley although I would still prefer a little more time. He is competitive here.

Good job on Let Me Be Frank, Jim.

Suggest you look at the ROTW archives when you have chance. There\'s lots of patterns to look at augmented by comments.