Paid Workout

[jimbo66]

You are right, we are laughing at you.

There ought to be a rule about posting \"winnings on this board\".  $2.60 place bets cannot justify public self-patting on the back.

FKACH, I bought a CD the other day that is getting me 5% interest, want to roll your profits into that?

[miff]

Jim,

The figure may not be overly fast for him(neg 3ish,imo) but it is not indicitive of what he could have done if asked.Macho Again probably got a pair or small new top with Icabod Crane topping.BB\'s pattern may even look like 0 2 x into the Belmont which is why figures alone without visual observation may be misleading.

The track was fast all day with raw times nearing stakes/track records in more than one race.A decent stretch head wind picked up during the day.

The 800 pound gorilla just got heavier.Tricky already commenting that the Japanese supporting Casino Drive will find out that Godzilla(BB) is still alive.

Mike

[Uncle Buck]

It was a paid workout. I just got home from a lovely two day resort stay at Carmel Highlands in Big Sur courtesy of BB\'s Derby romp so I missed today\'s festivities and of course passed the race. I firmly beleive you\'ll never see BB\'s odds higher than 6-5 ever again if he continues to race.

Just watched the Tivo version of the Preakness workout and can honestly say that drugs, jockey, trainer, et al do not make this horse. His heart and mind are as good as I\'ve seen. Did you see how dry he was today? He didn\'t turn a hair and was literally posing for pictures while being saddled on the grass. He looked like Brad and Angelina on the catwalk. On his toes, dappled and dry as a bone, ears pricked. Drugs don\'t fix nerves. Throw in his larger than normal heart, amazing stride and high cruising speed and it\'s see ya bye bye to anyone in this calendar year.

Oh yes. The opportunists will love Casino Drive\'s chances and will also say things like - \"Hey man. Dennis if Cork can totally move forward off the 5 weeks rest and career top in the Derby.\" They will also say \"Did you see Macho Again\'s late stride in Baltimore? Oh man - give this one another furlong and he\'ll gallop right by BB.\"

I think not.

I said it April 10th right here on this board. Big Brown is BOSS. It\'s not even close.

He cruises June 7th right into racing lore and onto the cover of TIME magazine, and every daily newspaper that\'s left, Tricky and the gang becoming instant multi-millionaires off one shining light.

BB will not lose the Belmont Stakes. He will win by as many lengths as Desormeaux allows.

[miff]

The future racing career of Big Brown will be determined by Paul Pompa and the IEAH group,Three Chimneys will have no say.


Mike

[Silver Charm]

The Breeding Career of Big Brown is owned by Three Chimneys. That career will go on and last a helluva lot longer than a six or eight race career on the track.

Three Chimneys has bought the rights in the last five years of maybe the two most popular horses to come along.

Smarty Jones and possibly Big Brown.

I say possibly Big Brown because he has come and perhaps gone like a comet. With up to this point minimal popularity because the Filly Eight Belles got more publicity than he did after the Derby. Big Brown still needs to close the deal.

The guys at Three Chimneys are smart. And these syndication deals are not gimmes. The Point Given deal I believe turned out to be a disaster. A horse which surprise surprise had bad feet and was probably viewed suspiciously after previously breeders got their hands on Real Quiet who had been ground into a racing version of sausage.    

They have anted up $50M and their goal is to get as much ROI as they can. Is it also to improve the Breed? Somebody needs to be asking those questions on Belmont Day and somebody needs to be providing answers. The Smartey Jones examples would be a good place to start. Assuming there are any.

This may be an opportunity to make the gray and black clouds go away. Assuming of course of the two scenarios presented above someone can honestly stand there in front of the camera and give the right answer.............

[miff]

The economics of racing BB if he wins the Belmont are not good but the option to do so will rest with the present owners under advisement from Tricky. When dealing with an asset of $100 million in the racing game, you have to financially believe that it\'s best to stop on him and send off to the breeding shed.The IEAH group is self promoting like crazy right now so it may be tough to read what they will do as opposed to what they should.

It\'s amazing how luck/random plays a part in the racing business. These same guys gave $5million for 50% of a slug(Court Vision) and come out smelling like a rose with BB.


Mike

[richiebee]

Silver and Miff:

Lets say you were involved in the management of this colt, and he wins The
Belmont.

Is there anything he can do that will increase the value he has as an undefeated
Triple Crown champion? If he races v Curlin and defeats that older rival will
his value increase by that much, if at all?

Or maybe he stays around to run in the Arlington Million, to establish Graded
Stake credentials on Racing\'s 2 traditional surfaces?

Nothing elevates a great champion like the presence of a worthy challenger, and
from what I have seen of this years 3YOs BB will be deprived of this challenge.
A big bet on Casino Drive seems like a good way to break the monotony, but
might be a kamikaze mission (why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?) given that
ones lack of seasoning.

Oh yeah, I forgot-- Temperence Hill, Summing, Sarava, Birdstone...

[Silver Charm]

I noticed the overall point of my post everyone avoided with a twenty foot poll.

Which means the beat will go as far as trying to improve the Breed.

[BitPlayer]

Miff -

I think those figs may be a point or two fast.  Whatever fig you give Macho Again, you have to give similar figs (within a point) to Icabad Crane (prior top 5.5) and Racecar Rhapsody (prior top 3.75).  And Stevil (prior top 4) ran only a couple of points worse than Macho Again.

I suppose a lot will depend on how strong the wind was and what TGJB can glean from the two-turn filly race an hour earlier.

[girly]

I sure would like to see a race with BB and Curlin- the pundits are all saying his victory is hollow due to the poor crop of 3 year olds this year. But he does seem very alert and inquisitive- a really smart animal.
  It was also fabulous that he got through the stretch with nothing more than a \"it\'s time\" from Kent Desormeaux. I\'m not completely against use of a crop, but to be able to use it sparingly and wisely or not at all is good for the sport I think. I\'ve read articles that put bullfighting and horse racing in the same sentence, which I find ludicrous. But with my friend having bake sales and raffles in order to obtain funding to fence another pasture for rescue of a few retired thoroughbreds, I can only hope that momentum is brewing to have more regulation aimed at protecting these beautiful athletes.

[miff]

Silver,

I did not avoid your post but honestly I have little interest in what they may do to improve the breed after they destroyed it beyond repair.A top breeding guy recently said it would take 20+years to \"cleanse\" the breed, fuhgedaboutit.

The modern racing game is what it is and continues in decline.


Mike

[miff]

Bit,

Beyer/Hopkins still fooling with it, but they feel that it was not real fast given track speed. The wind was an issue and BB was 3/4 wide on the last turn.Re Macho again and IC,both ran the best/fastest races of their careers regardless of what the performance fig formula may show.


Mike

[girly]

That\'s why I have done a 360 about the Prince. He may go down in history as someone who saw the big picture. People may criticise or envy his power and wallet size, but he has his own agenda. It reminds me of retired business woman Roxanne Quimby who bought up 90,000 acres of Maine forest and is intent on obtaining more with the goal of developing a National Park. She\'s got several would be developers pretty snarled up. It will indeed take time to correct breeding practices, but I\'m glad the issue is starting to get national attention. You have to start somewhere. All you need is someone with the ability to make change to have courage of conviction.

[Silver Charm]

Girly agreed. And it could have started four or five years ago with Smarty but we will never know because no one is willing to ask the tough questions.

Sometime these deals are like the old dot.com IPO\'s where everyone wants in because it is easy money early and who cares what happens later. And sometimes they are not.

Remember the old guy Chapman wanted to keep racing Smarty. He wasn\'t through with riding the wave. However there was considerable pressure on him to sell and stop racing Smarty. Even the \"You can\'t have you cake and eat it too\" logic wasn\'t working with the old guy because the money was meaningless to him. He knew he couldn\'t take it with him. So he was beat on pretty good to sell and quit which he eventually did. Simply because someone wanted his asset and did not want others to get it.

If someone comes along and says they will give $10M for a 5% stake in Big Brown and wants to Breed him to Billy Goats will the current Stallion Shareholders be tempted to take it.

The answer is probably yes.........

[Wrongly]

For what\'s it\'s worth, following the 7th and 9th races they watered the track.  I have to believe with the sun no longer out, that this slowed down the track. There was a major concern that the track for the Preakness not be a rock hard surface.