Aren't we a jaded bunch...

[jimbo66]

Geez,

We are likely in the midst of watching a very historic series of races within the sport we all follow, whether we like Big Brown or not.  I know this sounds blasphemous, but the horse has been more impressive than Secretariat to date.  Nobody has come within 5 lengths of him.  He took a 5w/4w jaunt around the track in a 20 horse derby and won easily.  He ran yesterday for only about a 1/16th of a mile from the top of the stretch to the midpoint of the stretch, and he still won by 5.  I know the 3 year olds are very likely a poor bunch, but who exactly did Secretariat beat.  Sham?  Big Brown is doing things that horses don\'t do.  He is breaking rules about foundation and bouncing.  He is making this handicapper (as well as TGJB) look foolish in betting against him. (not that making me look bad is an accomplishment...)  And yet, here is what we want to talk about this morning:

1.  Chuckles thinks its a good time to start predicting that Denis of Cork will die on the track in the Belmont.  Great job Chuckles.  Aren\'t you getting a bit nasty just because you didn\'t cash the preakness?  Geez, yesterday was the first triple crown race in 22 years that you didn\'t cash and get at least 70-1 on your money......

2.  Alm thinks its a good time to call us all idiots.

3.  Silver Charm is concerned that 3-4 years from now the offspring of Big Brown will have bad feet and the breed, already fragile, will get more fragile.  Perhaps true, perhaps not, but surely not the topic for today.

THis horse is really really good.  Bad crop of 3 year olds or not, he is a freak.  Yes, it perhaps might pay to take a stand against him at 1-9 in the Belmont from a value perspective, but as Miff said, yesterday showed the 800 pound gorilla getting bigger.

[smalltimer]

jimbo,
I totally agree. If I\'m not mistaken, the field that Secretariat beat in the Belmont never won another race, not even an allowance race.  (Perhaps they were just shell-shocked from the drubbing they received, or maybe my memory is faulty).

Does Big Brown look totally unbeatable, barring something crazy?  Yes, as we all witnessed, the first 2 legs were easy.  Out of the 20 hole in a hand ride?  Who\'s ever seen that type of acceleration with nothing more than 2-3 hand urges from Kent D?  Especially after the horse has already travelled a mile.  We are seeing something very special here.

Do I like Dutrow?  Not in the least, he\'s a hard guy to root for, but he\'s done a helluva job with a very talented animal.  Is Dutrow the guy who\'s face I prefer to be getting all the ink?  Not hardly, but I can like it or lump it, cause Dutrow has got it going on with this animal.

As a business decision, they have to retire the animal after the Belmont.  Who gets screwed?  Us fans, the real 365 a day race fans.  We rarely get to watch a great 3 year old graduate and run against the great older horses.  We all know Curlin would be in the breeding shed after last October, were it not for the legal issues.  So, in that respect jimbo, I\'m fairly jaded, I think the fans get cheated, and it lessens the excitement for the sport.  Who wouldn\'t want to see Big Brown and Curlin get after it for a mile and a quarter on real dirt?  You talk about some fan and wagering interest.
Jimbo, based on your posts that I\'ve read, I consider you a smart guy, certainly not an idiot.  I\'m embarrassed, and slightly offended that a fellow forum member would denegrate fellow players with that generalization. I\'m always reminded of a saying, \"at the track, the nitwits always outnumber the sharpies.\"  I know the opposite is true in this forum.  In this room, it\'s easy to become a target because there are a lot of smart people in here with strong opinons.  But, the personal stuff takes a lot of the fun out of it.
I certainly hope Chuckles is wrong with his DOC prediction.  The last thing the sport needs is a probable Triple Crown winner being overshadowed by another racetrack trajedy.
In 3 weeks, we may all be saying W-O-W !!

[Rick B.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Geez,
>
> We are likely in the midst of watching a very
> historic series of races within the sport we all
> follow, whether we like Big Brown or not.

> He is making this handicapper (as well as TGJB) look
> foolish in betting against him.

It\'s not about Big Brown. It\'s about Dutrow.
 
If anyone like Bill Mott or Neal Drysdale were training this horse, there wouldn\'t be any naysayers. There wouldn\'t be any hints and allegations. They\'re wouldn\'t be any \"profound\" (negative) concerns about what Big Brown\'s achievements mean for the sport, the breed, the future, etc. Yawn.
 
Some people are just too stubborn to admit that Dutrow just might know a thing or two about training a horse, and have been secretly wishing for something nasty to happen to Big Brown, just to \"prove\" something, while they openly call Big Brown a \"bet against\" race after race.
 
Hell, if Dutrow trained the sun, some of you guys would bet against there being a sunrise tomorrow morning.

[miff]

Rick,

What far too many players may not know is that it\'s the horse 95%. Tricky will openly admit to anyone who asks that he is just staying out of this very talented horses way. He told his owners 8 weeks ago that his total agenda is to NOT get too fancy with this animal.Tricky also flatly stated that any capable trainer could have BB in the same place where he is now.It\'s the horse!


Mike

[sekrah]

And you believe everything out of this crooks mouth?

[TGJB]

Miff-- Maybe any trainer. Maybe not any vet.

Coupla points--

1-- Does this horse look any better going into the Belmont or a more likely winner than SJ did? Point Given and Afleet Alex were also dominant in two legs, albeit in different order. There are reasons it\'s tough to win all three-- it\'s not just about how good your horse is.

2-- That panel was Racing Problems Light. I have yet to hear anyone other than myself mention Eight Belles heavy racing schedule going into the Derby, or that she bore in badly in the Fantasy. And I have had some good discussions with Waldrop, but that was pure P.R. on his part.

Look, this is not rocket science. Anything that makes horses run faster increases stress on bone and ligament. Steroids and raceday performance enhancers make horses run faster than they normally would. Aside from the other serious aspect (those of us in the mutuel pools playing against those with inside information), taking this issue as seriously as the Tour De France and Olympics do would cut down the number of breakdowns. Long term things like the shape of the breed can be discussed as well, but this would have a significant short term effect. I would be willing to bet you would see a difference in the numbers the first year.

[Silver Charm]

TGJB wrote,

\"Does this horse look any better going into the Belmont or a more likely winner than SJ did?\"

On numbers he does not. But Smarty appeared to be a little more geared up/on edge than Big Brown has so far. That is what got him beat in the Belmont.

He lacked that small intangible The Great Ones have when everything counts the most.

[Silver Charm]

Jimbo66 wrote,

\"Silver Charm is concerned that 3-4 years from now the offspring of Big Brown will have bad feet and the breed, already fragile, will get more fragile. Perhaps true, perhaps not, but surely not the topic for today\".

Jimbo you are correct. Lets start pushing for changes when no is watching and no one cares.

Then lets see how much gets done.....

[hossgnat]

Even the most cynical among us have to appreciate how important and talented this horse is.  Just a little more encouragement from KD and he probably runs the fastest (raw time) Preakness ever.  It\'s obvious that Big Brown can win races at the classic  distance while staying in cruising speed.

Draw a distinction between the horse and his connections.  So what if owners and trainer do not exactly make for a \"warm and fuzzy\" story. No one will remember much about them years from now, unlike the horse.

The Belmont will be huge for our game. A nation\'s eyes (well, 2 nations inc. Japan) will be glued to the TV and this time they\'ll witness what they had hoped to witness several times in recent years. Given the probable Belmont field, it seems likely that BB may wing it 12 furlongs on the front end.  That will be a spectacle.

Questions remain...
Can DOC run down Casino Drive for second money?  His connections would be thrilled with that result.
On the heels of a TC, do they run BB in the Travers and the BC?  The easy answer is NO, but wouldn\'t that be something if they did?  We just can\'t continue to be the sport where our superstars simply go away at the peak of their ability.

[smalltimer]

Economics question.

If the day ever arrived where the horses were performing on H.O.W. what would be the typical savings for a horse owner per typical animal on a yearly basis?

[tmon]

I was wondering how many trainers would have resisted the urge to putting a work into BB before the Preakness?

[tmon]

What would be interesting and better for BB would be to move him back on the grass.

[ajkreider]

If they race again, I\'m guessing it\'ll be another million dollar race (which would be five in a row, topping Point Given).

[miff]

1-- Does this horse look any better going into the Belmont or a more likely winner than SJ did? Point Given and Afleet Alex were also dominant in two legs, albeit in different order. There are reasons it\'s tough to win all three-- it\'s not just about how good your horse is.

JB,

 The vet thing is always an x factor and not only for this horse/trainer.He\'s a lot faster,consistently, than the ones you mention and I am not certain that this horse has gotten to his bottom yet. He is looking somewhat better than he is because of the poor competition.He is defying all sorts of things but will now face the ultimate challenge of 3 races in the span of 35 days off monster efforts.

BB reportedly came away for the Preakness better than he did after the Fla Derby and the Ky Derby but, as you know, the next 72 horses will tell the real story.

The Japanese horse is impressive in the am, going with loads of class according to very informed eyes.I think he has to move forward big time to handle BB ASSUMING he runs another of his usual performances.

I do not believe any other horse had a remote shot of jumping up and outrunning BB.


Mike

[fkach]

>1-- Does this horse look any better going into the Belmont or a more likely winner than SJ did? Point Given and Afleet Alex were also dominant in two legs, albeit in different order. There are reasons it\'s tough to win all three-- it\'s not just about how good your horse is. <

IMHO, SJ was actually tons the best in the Belmont. He was used hard prematurely on the backstretch, ran out of steam late, and was beaten by a clearly inferior horse. Look at the names of the of the horses in the chart of that Belmont that ran with him early, how they fared in that race, and how they ran before and afterwards for evidence of what your eyes could tell you about the race development that day.

The same thing could happen to BB, but it seems less likely because he seems to relax better and IMO has a more exprienced and calmer big race rider. Plus, I\'ll repeat my joke from yesterday, Jerry Bailey is retired and can\'t go on a suicide mission against BB. ;-)

Sooner or later this horse is going to wear down and throw in a huger stinker if they keep running him. It\'s a mortal lock. They all do if they aren\'t given a freshener. The probability is higher for the Belmont than the Preakness because it\'s one extra race into his form cycle. In addition, there are tons of horses that simply can\'t get 12F at a high level no matter how talented they were at 10F (memories of Boundary scare me every time I look at his pedigree). So this horse is more vulnerable in three weeks than he was yesterday. However, so would any other horse on the planet be that won the first two legs and was trying to get 12F for the first time. All things considered, the way he won yesterday maximizes his chances of pulling this off because it wasn\'t a tough race on him.