Aren't we a jaded bunch...

[TGJB]

BB is only slightly faster than SJ, and only once (Derby). Other than that SJs figures are just as good. AA was not that far behind those 2.

None of those 3 lost because somebody jumped up and beat their best race. They lost because they could not perform at that level 3 times in 5 weeks. Yes, BB\'s Preakness looked like an easy win, and the miracles of modern science may allow him to put in another one. But it would be hard to look better than SJ did off his Preakness.

(Fkach, don\'t even think about it).

An awful lot of horses have won the first two and failed at short odds in the Belmont, and I\'ve bet against every one since the TC was last won, although I haven\'t always cashed.

[fkach]

>An awful lot of horses have won the first two and failed at short odds in the Belmont, and I\'ve bet against every one since the TC was last won, although I haven\'t always cashed.<

That was obviously a very good idea, but this is a different set of circumstances.

An awful lot of \"average Grade 1 horses\" won the first two because they peaked at the right time or got a couple of favorable trips relative to horses of similar ability in those other races. Only SJ (and before him the Bid) looked truly superior to their competition heading into the Belmont after winning the first two.

All the others were wildly overbet because the naive part of the public tends to jump on the bandwagon because of all the hype. So it made perfect sense to try to beat them. They weren\'t that good.

BB looks very superior though. He may also get very overbet because of the hype. But the difference between his chances and the others is also very different. If he was a legitimate 1-5 shot yesterday (and I think he was), he\'s probably 1-2 / 3-5 in the Belmont (give or take a little given the difficult to quantify risks) because of the 12F, an extra race in his form cycle, plus the addition of a few better and fresher horses.

[miff]

JB,

Won\'t split hairs but BB seems to be a bit more talented, imo, than the brilliant SJ and has run faster.As far your comments re the miracle of modern science, it\'s speculation unless BB comes up with a class 1 positive.

You forget,this horse hinted freak before Tricky when Pat Reynolds had him and he worked 44.3, as a 2yr old, on the grass at Saratoga, prior to ever racing.


Mike

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Geez,
>
> We are likely in the midst of watching a very
> historic series of races within the sport we all
> follow, whether we like Big Brown or not.  I know
> this sounds blasphemous, but the horse has been
> more impressive than Secretariat to date.  Nobody
> has come within 5 lengths of him.  He took a 5w/4w
> jaunt around the track in a 20 horse derby and won
> easily.  He ran yesterday for only about a 1/16th
> of a mile from the top of the stretch to the
> midpoint of the stretch, and he still won by 5.  I
> know the 3 year olds are very likely a poor bunch,
> but who exactly did Secretariat beat.  Sham?  Big
> Brown is doing things that horses don\'t do.  He is
> breaking rules about foundation and bouncing.  He
> is making this handicapper (as well as TGJB) look
> foolish in betting against him. (not that making
> me look bad is an accomplishment...)


Sham ran the SA Derby in 1:47 flat, the Ky Derby in 1:59.8 (after a horrible gate incident), and the Preakness in 1:53.9 (DRF clocking).

[Uncle Buck]

Smarty lost because Elliot got outridden and moved too soon down the backside under pressure from Bailey/Eddington. Smarty opened up 4 lengths turning for home and got leg weary at the 1/8th pole with Birdpoop finishing up better that day.

Speaking of Birdpoop, I love it when crazy, borderline-idiotic statements come out of trainers mouths like Zito\'s yesterday. When talking about his decision to not run Anak Nakal in the Preakness he said \"Well, his daddy Victory Gallop won the Belmont so he\'s got a good shot in there.\"

All Anak needs is about 9 thoro points to contend. Or is it 19?

Brownie will not be moved too soon. I assure you of that. this horse has the tactical speed and smarts to be placed wherever he needs to be which is why I feel he will win.

Here\'s Smarty\'s bid. You can judge for yourself if Elliot got outridden:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4Z49x11smk

[dennish]

You bring up some very interesting points that you may not know are connected.
Zito ran 4 horses that day. 2 won & paid more than $40.00 Birdstone paid around $75.00 & Royal Academy just happened to finish right behind Smarty Jones at 27-1. Can anyone recall another trainer having a day like that?
 If any rider has moved early in a Belmont it is BB\'s rider, KD. His premature move on Real Quiet proved to be one of the costliest noses in racing history. The Triple Crown, $5,000,000 Visa bonus, winners share of Belmont purse, Horse of The Year & the stud fees that go along with all that.
 Did I mention that the house horse, Victory Gallop, was the beneficiary of KD\'s impatience?
 2.5 minutes is a long time. Stranger things have happened.

[Flighted Iron]

Well,he did give him a little blowout morning of Preakness.But if your talking about a serious move probably not many.I can think of 1 that most certainly
would have handled BB similarly between the Derby and Preakness.

Barring injury,BB wins by 2 in the Belmont.

[Flighted Iron]

Thanks.Certainly Sham was super nice horse and most years would have had a legit
shot at any or all three of the triple crown races.Bad timing.

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

NBC\'s was pathetic.  ESPN\'s was a bit better.  Rhoden was a perfect choice if you wanted to make advocates of change look bad.  Someone well-informed (maybe Barry Irwin) would have been much better from my perspective.

It\'s probably unfair to judge Waldrop based on current performance, because he\'s obviously in damage-control mode, but I\'m seeing just another marketing guy.

Here\'s a Waldrop quote from Bloodhorse:

“The truth of the matter is, once we eliminate use of anabolic steroids, we will have arrived at the European drug model with some variations,” Waldrop said. “We’re not far from the much-heralded European drug model, but people tend to discount that.”

http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/45278.htm

Do you buy that?

[miff]

Bit,

I thought Waldrop was another empty suit, now I\'m fairly certain he is. In all of these discussions, not one mention of the shrinking handle, the lack of transparency from a bettors perspective and the contraction of the customer base,i.e. gamblers, $2.00 bettors, $200.00 bettors and so on.

Have never seen an industry so far removed from reality and run so poorly by amateurs.


Mike