Science!

[richiebee]

Runners Going Directly From Ky Derby to Belmont Stakes 1992- 2007

YR/    Name/               (Bel Finish)/               Derby TG#/    Belmont TG#

92   Al Sabin........      (10) .....                11 .....                23

93   Kissin Kris......      (2) .....                8.1 ....                 7
     Silver of Silver....    (4) .....                9.2 ....               6.1
 
94   Strodes Creek....      (3) .....                 4 .....                6
     Ulises.......          (6) .....                21.2....                 22

95   Knockadoon......       (4) .....                  8....                  8
     Wild Syn........       (11).....                 24....                20

97   Crypto Star.....       (4).....                   7....                10

98   Parade Ground...       (4).....                   8.3...              5.2

99   Lemon Drop Kid..       (1).....                   5.....              6.1

00   Commendable.....       (1).....                   12....              2.2
     Aptitude .......       (2).....                    3....               3
     Wheelaway ......       (4).....                    5....               5.1
     Curule..........       (11)....                    6....           Eased

01   Invisible Ink...        (5)....                     1.2..              5.2
     Balto Star......        (7)....                    16.1..              17

02   Essence of Dubai..      (6)....                      4...               7
     Perfect Drift.....      (10)...                      2.2...           21.1

03   Empire Maker.....       (1)....                      0.2...             0
     Ten Most Wanted..       (2)....                       3....          -0.2

04   Birdstone......         (1)....                       5.2...          -1.1

05   Andromedas Hero..       (2)....                      5.3...            2

06   Jazil............       (1)....                       3.3...         1.1
     Bluegrass Cat....       (2)....                       1......         0.1  
     Steppenwolfer....       (4)....                    2.2....     2          
     Bob and John....        (....                      12....            9
     Deputy Glitter...       (11)...                       2...              17

07   Tiago...                (3)....                      1.2..             1.2
     Imawildancrazyguy..     (6)....                       1.2..             7

08   Dennis of Cork....      ( )....                       2.2...           ?
     Tale of Ekati.....      ( )....                        3....           ?
     Anak Nakal........      ( )....                        4....           ?

Fillies Who Went Directly From KY Oaks To Belmont Stakes

96   My Flag..........       (3).....                      10.3....       5.2

07   Rags To Riches...       (1).....                       1....         -1.2

[covelj70]

Great research, thanks for this.

If my read on it is right, then Dennis of Cork and Tale of Ekati have every reason (historically) to improve off of their solid efforts in the Derby while Big Brown is heading in the wrong direction off his admittedly two massive efforts in the Fla Derby and Ky Derby.

I think people always tend to get in trouble when they use their eyes instead of the numbers in judging what a horse has done.  While BB\'s race on Sat looked amazing visually, the numbers suggest he is heading in the wrong direction while some of the competion in the Belmont is going the other way.

[richiebee]

Covel:

I had no preconceived notions when I went poking around the Archives. Backing
out the whole idea of whether horses moved up number wise going from Louisville
to Elmont, the fact is that the \"Kangaroo\" strategy (\"hopping\" over
the Preakness)produced 5 winners between 1999 and 2007 (6 if you wish to count
Rags to Riches).

That being said, BB seems to be doing so well right now that if I was involved
in his management I would almost want the Belmont to be run in 2 and not 3
weeks.

Another thought which might make me unpopular in some circles: Garrett Gomez,
John Velazquez,Javier Castellano, Edgar Prado and Cornelio Velasquez are all
currently without mounts in the Belmont Stakes, and my opinion is that any one
of them give Denis of Cork a better chance of winning than Calvin Borel. Just
an opinion.

[covelj70]

oh, I totally agree with you on Borel and Dennis of Cork.

He is a Churchill Downs specialist but take him out of that comfort zone, and he isn\'t the same jock.

Compare his phenomenal ride in the Derby on Street Sense to his bonehead move in the Preakness.  Crazy.

Gmozes sucked last year in the Belmont on Hard Spun but I have always believed he was better coming from off of it than on the front end so I think he would be perfect.

Maybe Jerry Bailey will come back and race ride BB like he did Eddington against Smarty....still bitter about tearing up those Eddington tickets.

[hossgnat]

I really like Denis of Cork.  Although I\'ve all but handed the Belmont to BB, I\'d love to see DOC spoil the party.  A few weeks is plenty of time to convince myself that DOC could be a lucrative play.

No need to worry about Borel, Albarado will ride DOC in the Belmont.

[big18741]

hossgnat Wrote:
-----------------------------------------------------
>
> No need to worry about Borel, Albarado will ride
> DOC in the Belmont.

That anchor cost Racecar a placing or two in the Preakness.Now he gets on the horse I like in the Belmont? WTF?

[marcus]

maybe DOC cycles back around to a giant race reminiscent to Birdstone\'s bel stks effort # . BB\'s blue grass and derby numbers where in a tight range and if the preakness falls in there similarly then imo the numbers and prospects don\'t look too bad for him -  the question of the effects of two weeks off before the preakness not withstanding . to me BB looked tired in the stretch even before his amazing burst to get clear and then seemed to slightly drift out from the rail .  \" easy winner\" ,\" won handily\", or \"under-wrap\'s doesn\'t mean they\'ll carry any potential saved energy from that effort over to their next race .
it\'s interesting to note , how so few horses sheets and effort distribution results in the archived TG negative run study compare or offer insight to BB\'s- it\'s totally without precedent  .

[ajkreider]

He may have looked tired in the stretch, but according to Haskin he did the final 3/16s in 19.08 - which (according to him) is one of the fastest Preakness finishes in history.  And this while being eased under the wire.

[jimbo66]

\"Looking tired\"?

Boy, I may need glasses.  I have watched the Preakness at least 12 times, twice more just now.  I REALLY WANT to see him looking tired in the stretch, as I really want to bet against him in the Belmont.  But I don\'t see it at all.  How does a horse look tired when he takes 5 to 6 giant strides, then gets wratched down by the jockey, into a gallup?

[marcus]

i felt he had much much more to give and was glad to see that it wasn\'t asked of him . that fraction of 19.08 for the final 3 1/6th gets even faster imo if there indeed was , as reproted , a medium head wind in the stretch   ...

[miff]

All true guys but lets not forget that it appears that both Beyer and Rags made that track very fast and raw time unadjusted for track speed can be very misleading.

JB, would appreciate your take on track speed Preakness day.

Mike

[TGJB]

Preakness figures later today.

[marcus]

ok - you might need glasses but now i may need to soak my head after reading the \" looking tired\"? post ... let me digress briefly and try follow the \"thinking \" through , 24 ( twenty-four ) days off before the fla derby , 34 ( thirty-four ) days off before the kentucky derby , 14 ( fourteen ) days off before the preakness and all while running some of the biggest numbers ever ...