Casino Drive got a 0 in the Peter Pan

[covelj70]

I ordered up the TG sheet and he got a O with an \"off poorly\" notation.

Thanks JB for agreeing to let me share the number with the board.

In addition to the number itself, the other thing that is interesting is that Casinio Drive\'s \"0\" in his second race is nearly as fast as Jazil ever ran (best being a 0.5 negative).  Rags to Riches best was her 1.5 negative.  I believe both of these lifetime best figures came in the Belmont (could be wrong about that).

He\'s lightly raced but he is very fast and, as everyone is well aware, has the best breeding for the race.

If we took the names off the sheets and looked at:

1) A horse that was 4-1 with a 0 in his last race with phenomenal breeding for the distance coming into the race fresh, and

2) A horse that was 1-5 coming off a 2 negative (guess) which would represent a signifcant regression from his prior 2 races and running his 3rd race in 5 weeks with breeding that isn\'t that hot for 1 1/2 mile,

We would all be going against horse number 2 90% of the time.

[Lost Cause]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> If we took the names off the sheets and looked
> at:
>
> 1) A horse that was 4-1 with a 0 in his last race
> with phenomenal breeding for the distance coming
> into the race fresh, and
>
> 2) A horse that was 1-5 coming off a 2 negative
> (guess) which would represent a signifcant
> regression from his prior 2 races and running his
> 3rd race in 5 weeks with breeding that isn\'t that
> hot for 1 1/2 mile,
>
> We would all be going against horse number 2 90%
> of the time.



Abso-friggin-lutely...
Thanks for the number..

[dlf]

Yep, we would. This is going to be one of the times where I go with the 10% play, though.

[ajkreider]

Does the same apply if horse one will be having his second race off a quarantine (if, as Dutrow suggests, such horses regress the 2nd time out)?

[covelj70]

This is interesting.  I have asked some other horseman I know about this and the suggestion has come back that many European horses run big first off the plane because they are getting Lasix for the first time and that\'s a big one-time boost for them which is consistent with Dutrow\'s comments.

I can\'t recall if Casino Drive ran on Lasix in Japan and/or in the Peter Pan, anyone remember?

[miff]

AJ,

Thats too funny that Tricky would say such a thing.Tricky drinks a different brand of Kool Aid and would not have an original thought on such matters.


Mike

[smalltimer]

Shows no lasix in Japan or the Peter Pan.

[covelj70]

interesting, so then I don\'t think the \"one time pop\" that Dutrow referred to as the norm for \"horses off the plane\" is too relevant here even if that is true in the first place.

Curlin came out firing 0\'s and never looked back, maybe this guy is the same deal.

[Dudley]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I can\'t recall if Casino Drive ran on Lasix in
> Japan and/or in the Peter Pan, anyone remember?


No Lasix in the Peter Pan for Casino Drive nor his mate Spark Candle.

[Flighted Iron]

Better hope it\'s not the same deal.Another zero will probably get him beat.

[imallin]

The DRF said no lasix, but is everything that\'s published in the DRF gospel? Maybe they didn\'t report lasix but used it anyway?

I\'d love to know for sure if he\'s been treated with lasix and not just blindly accept what i read in the Drf.

[fkach]

That\'s an interesting question.  Years ago a real lot of the European turf horses would bounce badly in their second race in the U.S.

My feeling was that the first US start was probably the result of the efforts of the European trainer. But since some of them changed trainers after their first try in the U.S., perhaps the change in training methods was having a negative impact. It was at least a reasonable theory. LOL

In any event, I think those horses do a lot better now than they did years ago. I don\'t track it statistically, but I used to look to play against some of them. I see no compelling reason to do so these days.

[girly]

Duh

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

No we wouldn\'t be going against the number. Don\'t get silly.

We would be factoring the odds.

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I ordered up the TG sheet and he got a O with an
> \"off poorly\" notation.
>
> Thanks JB for agreeing to let me share the number
> with the board.
>
> In addition to the number itself, the other thing
> that is interesting is that Casinio Drive\'s \"0\" in
> his second race is nearly as fast as Jazil ever
> ran (best being a 0.5 negative).  Rags to Riches
> best was her 1.5 negative.  I believe both of
> these lifetime best figures came in the Belmont
> (could be wrong about that).
>
> He\'s lightly raced but he is very fast and, as
> everyone is well aware, has the best breeding for
> the race.
>
> If we took the names off the sheets and looked
> at:
>
> 1) A horse that was 4-1 with a 0 in his last race
> with phenomenal breeding for the distance coming
> into the race fresh, and
>
> 2) A horse that was 1-5 coming off a 2 negative
> (guess) which would represent a signifcant
> regression from his prior 2 races and running his
> 3rd race in 5 weeks with breeding that isn\'t that
> hot for 1 1/2 mile,
>
> We would all be going against horse number 2 90%
> of the time.

[sekrah]

The odds were part of the equation.