Casino Drive got a 0 in the Peter Pan

[albany]

Please don\'t be sensitive. I was just commenting on your very insightful pedigree analysis. Not everyone would identify a sibling of two Belmont winners as a horse who was nicely bred to go 8-9 furlongs.

[ajkreider]

What I have a hard time believing about Casino Drive is the apparent improvement from his maiden to the Peter Pan.  Sure, he took the maiden by 11+, but he did 1 1/8th in a time of 1:54.40 (according to Downey).  I know, I know - track variations, blah blah blah - but unless they were running in a foot of mud, 1:54+ is incredibly slow (and what time did the 2nd place runner get?!)

So, he improved 7 seconds in his first race on a new continent.  Perhaps we should expect a new Belmont Stakes record (or CD to be off the board completely).

[tmon]

Well in the Uk Lammtarra won the Epsom Derby after only running in and winning only one race as a two year old. Then he went on too win the  King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes and the Prix de l\'Arc de Triomphe and then retired.

[flushedstraight]

ronwar Wrote:
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> I would guess, like the derby, not many tops are earned in the Belmont.


A friendly reminder concerning recent trends,

in last 9 runnings, Belmont champs running new tops;

Rags To Riches 2.5 new top
Jazil 1.0
Birdstone 3.5
Sarava 3.5
Point Given 3.0
Commendable 4.5
Lemon Drop Kid 1.5

That\'s 7 for 9, all except for Alex & Empire Maker, and in those years the bridesmaids ran tops;
Andros Hero 3.0
Ten Most Wanted 2.25

and not to forget 50-1 Vision & Verse placing with a 3.5 new top 4 after being \"stuck\" on 7.5 in 3 previous starts

maybe percentage wise for all runners there are not many new tops but exacta players might find this useful, or not

[covelj70]

Flushed,

thanks for this.

Just to be clear, the numbers you listed next to the horse indicate how much they improved from their previous top, right?

I believe that Rags to Riches for example, ran a 1.5 negative in the Belmonth so you are saying that that was a 2.5 point improvement from her previous top, right?

If I have this right, this is really interesting.

What do you think the explanation is for these kinds of jumps in the Belmont when we don\'t see that too often in the Derby?

[sekrah]

Those percentages are significantly lower with the amount of rest he\'s been handed.

[flushedstraight]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> What do you think the explanation is for these
> kinds of jumps in the Belmont when we don\'t see
> that too often in the Derby?


My 2 cents is that generally, the Belmont compared to the Derby is a relaxed pace clean trip race where, given that going 12 panels is not a serious handicap, horses can run their race, i.e. they either fire their best shot or they dont. It seems that often horses in the Derby are taken out of their best game for one reason or another not directly related to their own shortcomings. That explanation and $2.00 will get you on the Q2 out to Belmont but it wont get you the winner...


Possibly of note, while looking through the archives I noticed that Tale of Ekati (a diamond in the rough?) has a similar pattern to Ten Most Wanted;

- set substantial (about 5 pts) new top in winning final derby prep
- small regression to a 3 in troubled trip Derby (tu) four weeks later
- then straight from Derby to Belmont

and like Birdstone, ToE won a stakes at Belmont as a 2 yr old, is going against an unbeaten unbeatable horse going for the Crown that smoked him in the Derby, and goes for a trainer that already won the Derby & Prkness but not Belmont. (irrelevant I know, but fun, can\'t resist)

While ToE may retain rat status on this board and among the pace oriented folk that discount his Wood win and among the public in general, aint that what we\'re looking for?  Dismissed at THIRTY SEVEN to ONE in the Derby? I think there may be possibilities here, taking the leap of faith at a very fair price that he got staying power from okaasan. His determination and heart shouldn\'t be in question if you\'ve seen his races in NY, and that goes for Coa as well.