Question for TGJB, and other "No Triple Crown" Predictors

[TGJB]

Miff-- not forgetting at all. That\'s why it matters how far he goes back.

[alm]

This question for Jerry.

I am not asking you to compare BB to any other Triple Crown winner, but please explain to me how Secretariat, for example, could run the 3 races he ran, arguably breaking track records each time, within a 5 week period.

To say his Derby was not a \'jumping off\' point with a major number would confuse me, given how he ran the race...getting faster each quarter.  His Preakness was a tougher race in some respects, given how he circled the entire field on the outside in an early sustained drive.

The Belmont speaks for itself.  It was a lightning fast track that day for sure, but.....

Why can\'t BB be assumed to be able to do the same thing?  Honest question, not a challenge.

[Dudley]

\"...nothing about those inconsistent slow, distant challanged, rats he will face. \"

LOL..the relative field is essential of course, Mike. But we don\'t really know how distance-challenged those slow rats are! Nor for the Big fast Brown Rat.
At 12F a seemingly slow stayer could overtake the speedy one; see Birdstone.

[Flighted Iron]

How about the best of both worlds? BB in a runaway and Casino Drive out?
I\'m with you. Always good betting opportunies,but any true horse racing lover
wants and needs a BB Belmont victory.Not to mention horse racing itself.

[TGJB]

First of all, there are other horses beside Secretariat that have run big in all three (Real Quiet and silver Charm come to mind). By the way, something I have never seen discussed anywhere, ever, is whether the stinker Secretariat ran in the Wood (then 2 weeks before the Derby) actually helped him by not making him go into the Preakness off two efforts while making his third start in 4 weeks, even before he got to the Belmont. (And nobody sat around coming up with reasons for the Wood, unlike Point Given\'s Derby. It happens).

This discussion would invariably bring us back around to track speeds, and how fast horses in the 70s were actually running. Suffice it to say that while 25 years is a generation for humans, 8-10 is a generation for horses. Secretariat is Jesse Owens. Which does not diminish what either did.

[miff]

Dud,

Good point on BB having to prove he can get the distance. Re distance you may want to look at the derby replay focusing on DOC and TOE who were looking for a soft place to lie down at the 1/8th pole.Now these two possible contenders have to get an additional quarter mile after hanging going shorter.

Casino Drive has the obvious breeding on paper and now must do it on the track.


Mike

[Dudley]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> Casino Drive has the obvious breeding on paper and
> now must do it on the track.

If you ascribe to the belief of dam-side stamina influence, CD is the safest choice in this regard. And even then, there\'s no assurance that THIS sibling didn\'t get short-shrifted there. But combining Jazil, Rags and  his Peter Pan, win or lose in the Belmont, Casino Drive is the better bet. Whatever his post-time odds (5/2 ish?)  BBrown\'s action lends all the value to CD.

[covelj70]

Mike, you have mentioned DoC struggling in the last 1/8th several times.  I just don\'t see that when I watch the replay.  He was moving very well right through the wire.  I just watched it again.

Not to mention the fact that he had only run 1 race in the previous 7 weeks and so it would have been understandable if he was a little short for the race.

He comes into this with a good number to run back to and he\'s well rested. I think he is dangerous.

I see your point on ToE although he did go wide on the final turn.

[miff]

\"This discussion would invariably bring us back around to track speeds, and how fast horses in the 70s were actually running. Suffice it to say that while 25 years is a generation for humans, 8-10 is a generation for horses. Secretariat is Jesse Owens. Which does not diminish what either did\"


JB,

A topic for Tuesday during winter.Most of your study/theory concerns valid stuff about the size of the modern horse/ track speed vs the 60\'s, 70\'s horse.

Agree 60\'s humans like Bob Cousy would not be able to play with todays athletes who are much bigger, stronger, faster.Sam Huff at 170 would be thrown around like a rag doll by the 300 lb linemen in pro football.Jesse Owens not nearly as physical big as todays runners.

What you have missed maybe, is that horses like Secretaiat and Dr Fager were physically larger than most of todays horses.Advanced feed, meds,steroids, jugs of today, I\'ll give you, but not size which is the biggest factor in comparing the differnt generations of horses or humans. Track speed then and now I\'ll give you a couple of fifths, in that tracks were regularly scraped on big Saturdays in the 70s\'80\'s and 90\'s.I am unaware that the cushion depth was 2 1/2 inches as you have stated, I know it\'s deeper than that today on most days at most tracks.

I\'ve seen them all back to the mid 60\'s and I believe that no horse ever lived that could outrun Dr Fager, Secretariat by 2 full seconds(10 lengths) as you suggest,only wish I could bet on it.


Mike

[miff]

Cov,

Watch the filly, 8 Belles to get the correct perspective, she is game to the wire, DOC and TOE are one paced not gaining an inch.It\'s called hanging(TOE more than DOC)

Cov, aside from that how would glean that DOC (a one run closer) will punch big at 12f. You are hanging on his one good fig earned under a perfect set up when he won while running his last half in 49 seconds after a pace meldown(they went 45 change up front, from memory)

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- the 2 1/2 inch cushion thing is in \"Are Racehorses Getting faster\", came from Porcelli, who looked it up for me. As I discussed there (by memory), 1/2 inch roughly worked out to 1 second at 6f, based on what little I had to work with. That was nowhere near scientific, though.

On the horse size issue-- I\'m the last guy to offer an opinion on those issues. But recent comments (some during the ESPN discussion, some elsewhere) have been that they are bigger, and carry a lot more muscle, both because we are breeding a different type, and because of steroids etc.

I would love for them to have a \"Seventies Day\" where they went back to a 2 1/2 inch cushion, just so we could get a fix on what it means. The horses (and owners) might not like it as much.

[miff]

JB,

As a general matter, two old timers from a large breeding farm in florida told me that horses are bigger than before but not to the same extent that modern humans have outgrown those of us born in the 50s\' 60\'s and 70\'s.

From all of what I have observed, I think claimers got much faster(i think illegal stuff is why) but graded horses, esp turf runners, just haven\'t shown me that much superiority,fast wise, over the previous generations.In fairness, Dr Fager and Secretariat where freaky fast for their generation and did not represent the norm.


Mike

[alm]

Once again, my question was not about comparing the horses of different generations (or the times they ran) as much as it was about comparing the situation of running three tough TC races in 5 weeks without an apparent bounce.

Important point about Secretariat: his heart was roughly triple the size of the average thoroughbred heart.  Measuring his body would only be part of the equation.  I think I read Seattle Slew\'s heart was more than double the average.

As for Secretariat\'s Wood, wasn\'t it muddy that day?  And wasn\'t Angle Light a decent mudder?  And of course, wasn\'t Lucien Lauren just using the Wood as a prep and tuneup?  Surely, Secretariat hadn\'t had the screws tightened at that point.

If he\'s too unusual an example, what about Affirmed who clearly had 3 tough races in the TC.  Why doesn\'t he compare to BB in that regard...did he bounce and win?

[TGJB]

Alm-- as I said, there are even more recent examples of horses that have run well in all three, so yes, it can be done. But what I\'m saying is that the fact (which we\'ll assume for this conversation) that they run much faster makes it tougher to do it now than it used to be-- the faster they go, the more stress they place on themselves, the more they take out of themselves, and the more likely things are to give way. This is why we are seeing the trend to space out races.

[alm]

A new question for you miff...our history is similar over the time period you cite...in your opinion, which was the most overrated champion runner during the early part of the era?