Churchill Downs 5/24 Picks

[sekrah]

Here are my picks for all the races tomorrow at Churchill Downs.

1st Race - #7 SPEAKSOFTLYANCARRY (5-1 ML).  No value in #2 SUBSCRIBER who is probably the fastest horse in the race, but is coming in off a 3 1/2 month layoff with a poor pattern of workouts.  The 7 looks next best to me.

2nd Race - #6 RUE DE VIE (3-1 ML).   Coming off a nice race on the poly at Keeneland with nice spacing.   McPeek is strong in these spots.  Looks wide open behind him with the #3, #4, and #5 as legit board hitters (mostly at short prices).

3rd Race - #3 SPIRIT OF SUCCESS (20-1 ML).  Bernie Flint colt coming back from a little funk at the Fair Grounds finished his CD debut on May 8th nicely after getting absolutely crushed by the horses on both sides of him coming out of the gate.  Finished 1/2 length behind #2 ROBYN\'S DREAM (4-1 ML) in that race. This horse looks ready for a new top.  Should appreciate extra 1/2 furlong in this one too.  The chalk, #4 LOUIS JAMES (7/5 ML), is a must in exotics.

4th Race - #4 TORA (7/2 ML).   I like the angle with Asmussen claiming this horse and putting Bridgmohan on today.  Coming in on short rest for a first time turf try but he\'s awesome on the claim and this horse is hands down the fastest in the race.

5th Race - #4 EGO MANIA (7/2 ML).   Nice line.  Good spacing.  Tough to go against Cody Autrey in this spot.  #7 CHIT CHAT CAT (5/2 ML) doesn\'t light my fire.  I think there\'s a react coming here on the short rest.  #9 SATAN\'S PLUME (8-1 ML) may be sitting on a new top and is a good one to play in the exotics with the 4.

6th Race - Passing on 2 year old colts making their debuts.

7th Race - #4 MISS MAFIOSO (12-1 ML).   This horse is going to like the Turf I think.  Pedigree is rich in turf and lightly raced 3 year old coming in on 6 weeks rest may be poised for a big new top.  #1 CRYSTAL MINUET (7/5 ML) and #2 GOAT CHEESE (3-1 ML) are legit here and will use in exotics, but I like the value on the 4.

8th Race - #1 TRICKLE ME GOOD (4-1 ML). Ugly claiming race with most of the field on very shaky form.  The only one I could really stomach using.

9th Race - #9 SAM P. (5/2 ML).  Layoff return went alright in Keeneland 5 wks ago.  Pulled off a bullet 59.4 work in the mud this past Sunday.  Pletcher has him ready to fire a good one here I feel.

10th Race - I see some people eyeing up #5 BRASS HAT (7/2 ML) with the jockey change.  Certaintly legitimate contender but I see several who could be there at the end in this one.  #4 TRANSDUCTION GOLD (15-1 ML) reacted in this very same race last year 1 month after a monster effort in the Elkhorn.  After a warmup prep at TP in September he fired another monster in the G3 Sycamore to win by a neck.   I think he\'s sitting on green to fire a big one here after tossing a clunker in this years Elkhorn back on April 25th.  Just seems to have that kind of pattern to him.  Other major contenders who could win this: Bill Mott\'s #7 PICKAPOCKET (8-1 ML) and Stewart\'s #9 SILVERFOOT (9/2).  Probably going to be keying the #4 up, especially if he goes off around his morning line odds.

11th Race - #1 TEMPEST STORM (4-1 ML).

[miff]

The morons in congress who screwed up this country in more ways than one can count, will now surely f--k up racing.



Bloodhorse:

A congressional subcommittee has demanded information from state racing commissions about racehorse breakdowns, drug use, and breeding.

The United States House Subcommittee on Commerce, Trade, and Consumer Protection sent a letter to the Lexington-based Association of Racing Commissioners International, which represents state racing commissions in 44 jurisdictions.

The committee, which includes U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield, a Kentucky Republican, cited concerns that “leading officials in the sport” have failed to tackle long-standing concerns over the welfare of the Thoroughbred horse. The committee cited the breakdown of the filly Eight Belles after the May 3 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), saying it shows the “Thoroughbred breed has become increasingly fragile.”

The committee demanded answers by June 2, the week of the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). The Louisville Courier-Journal reported the letter on its Web site May 23.

The subcommittee is expected to hold a hearing on the issues, similar to those it has held on jockey health and welfare in the Thoroughbred industry. The AP report also indicated Congress may look at the Interstate Horseracing Act, which authorizes simulcasts across state lines.

The panel has jurisdiction over the commercial practices of sports and gambling. It has previously investigated steroid use in baseball.

The death of Eight Belles has spurred debate about the medical condition of horses.

[rosewood]

Miff,

As much as I sometime disagree with you, the last thing we need is the guvment sumbitches taking over. It\'s too late for them to fix the country and a little too early to line them all up and shoot them, but were getting there.

However, racing power groups not being willing or able to all get on the same page and fix the things were not right with the sport have brought this on themselves.

There is nobody that hates lawyers and politicians as much as I do and nobody that hates being cheated out of his money as much as I do either.

Hope you crush every race this weekend.

[smalltimer]

Rosewood,

I totally agree with your comment that racing groups brought this on themselves.

I think a first time test positive should be mandatory 6 months suspension with a healthy fine, 2nd offense should be 3 year suspension and 3rd offense should be a lifetime ban.  If you are the listed trainer of the animal that would be the person suspended.  To suggest the TAP\'s, Asmussens of the world share no blame because an employee of their\'s administers something, tough luck.  

Asmussen over 20 positive tests in 5 years, Vladmir Cerin over 20 in 5 years.  What are they still doing training?  It\'s time that a serious message be sent. Granted, those phonies in D.C. will offer ridiculous fixes, but at least they have the implied authority to scare the shit out of the violators.  Plus, they can implement rules to get rid of those same problem trainers.

Until the steroid issue is addressed, every animal should be designated with whatever steroids are used.  If Lasix is on the form, so should be Winstrol or any other steroid.  

Those who roll the dice, need to pay the price.  

At the end of the day, it at least gives the handicapper the information needed to make some wagering decisions.

[fkach]

>It\'s too late for them to fix the country and a little too early to line them all up and shoot them, but were getting there. <

Don\'t put off until tomorrow what you can do today. ;-)

[jmetro]

I thought you were referring to Churhicll.  No settlement with the horsemen, no on-line wagering, no guaranteed pools, dwindling field sizes and mutuel pools, disgruntled employees and attendance about what you see at Turfway Park in January.  

There are probably a half a dozen posters here that could run CDI better than Steve Sexton.

[smalltimer]

I\'ll be personally contacting my Congressman and giving my take on what is needed to correct the racing industry.
In addition to the drug issue, it\'s likely a Consumer Protection issue also.
Seems if the industry is going to list Lasix, bute, etc, it should also be required to list any steroidal drugs used.  Don\'t you think?
If there are trainers using a Cornell Collar, the public needs to know that---ahead of time.
In my opinion, the DRF and other racing publications have TONS of information contained on them.  Another 2 or 3 or 4 symbols should be no problem to add.
Regarding Winstrol.  If the powers that be are going to allow that particular steroid, it should be industry standard that it can only be administered on the 15th of the month, and not the 1st, 8th, or 28th.  Make it standard everywhere.
It\'s clear to me in reviewing Big Brown\'s workout pattern, layoff schedule, races and later workouts that Dutrow has had this horse on Winstrol since probably the middle of last September.  By counting the days, assuming the horse is administered it on the 15th to \"make his coat shine\", it does fall perfectly in line with the TC schedule.
Just some random thoughts.

[cubfan0316]

another problem with the industry, if everyone is allowed and your not doing, you need help.if you want to keep up do what there doing. if nascar says you can largen your carborator and you choose not to, dont blame anybody but yourself.

[Boscar Obarra]

Not to take any of the onus off racing\'s blind men, but the fan is just as much to blame.

  Anyone and everyone so offended by the blatant and obvious cheating of the last X years should have voted with their feet.

  As you continue to bet into the pool , you finance the activity.

  If every serious bettor stopped punching for a week, they\'d throw the bums out.

   But nooooooo. Lip service and web postings. Aint gonna cut it.

[MatthieuB]

I liked your read on the CD 10th and wheeled the 4 on-top and threw in a 10 across the board on the 4 horse.  Thanks for the help....Fav doesn\'t get the job dome and you would have given out a Sweeeet Boxcar play.  I appreciate the help. Thanks for posting.
MJB

[dodie]

I for one am glad to see the federal government involved.  The fans can\'t investigate.  The tracks, horsemen, and state\'s won\'t investigate.  I\'ve only followed racing seriously for 15 years, but something has changed.  Personally, I\'ve lost much of my interest in the game because of the unregulated drugs, breakdowns, breeding decisions (whether to send them to the shed after they win a few big ones and before they breakdown, or the ever increasing over emphasis on speed, speed, speed . . . wonder why there\'s an increase of turf sprints of a couple hundred percent over the last 6 years?  They\'re too fragile to race on dirt or go much beyond 5 and a half furlongs), or the inane in-fighting between entities that make it impossible to bet on various tracks at various times, and this even after the feds gave us a special cut out to be the ONLY gambling to be allowed over phone and internet.
  We Americans are so cute,  \"keep dem guvment sumbitches outta my life.\"  The feds aren\'t going to solve it.  There just saying you guys have a big problem and you need to fix it.

[miff]

\"We Americans are so cute, \"keep dem guvment sumbitches outta my life.\" The feds aren\'t going to solve it. There just saying you guys have a big problem and you need to fix it\"


Dodie,

Maybe they should first get involved in out how to help the average family with gas and food prices,not to mention the housing mess.

With over 30 states involved in racing, you can bet that little will happen except maybe a federal statute banning steroids or some other rather INSIGNIFICANT thing.Let\'s not forget that this is another knee jerk reaction to  the barking of the animal loons regarding the breakdown of 8 Belles.(raced clean from all accounts)I love the part where the committee will also look into racing surfaces,too funny.

Probably doesn\'t matter because by the time the whole thing shakes out, the endangered specie, i.e. the gambler/horse player/customer, will be near extinct without any of the empty suits who run racing really noticing.


Mike

[dodie]

Mike
  I don\'t disagree with anything you\'ve said.  In the end, I agree, very little will happen, except people like me who used to have a legitimate passion for the game will take this as one more indication that betting on thoroughbreds is probably not the best use of my disposable income.  I guess I\'m sad more than anything else.  In a way, it feels like breaking up after a long relationship, with all the good memories, etc., but you know it\'s the right thing to do.

Jack