Canonnero Should Not Have Run

[Silver Charm]

This was the headlines in SI after the Belmont that year. PETA will have field day with this one.

As soon as Tricky bragged about being in the winners circle by the quarter pole look what happens..........

[Silver Charm]

Deju Vu all over again.

If Big Brown isn\'t dead fit and doesn\'t win in hand Dutrow will be like the roasted pig on your grill tomorrow after this up coming Belmont.

http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1084958/index.htm

[alm]

I don\'t know if JB has ever spoken on the Canonero subject, but the horse\'s reaction to the two tough Derby and Preakness races probably set him up big time for a regression in the Belmont.  

Being there that day and not ever having been a chalk player, I went for Pass Catcher, who seemed to me to be the horse for the moment.  Everything pointed at him for that day.  Good score.

As for whether or not they should have run Canonero in the Belmont (or Spectacular Bid for that matter) what on earth could you expect them to do?  Pass the race, get him in shape and win his NEXT race?  Could you imagine the outcry that would have produced?

You get one shot at this thing.  You take it.

Dutrow and connections have to take the shot, regardless.  The only people who can pontificate about the subject are people who have been in the same, unique position and backed off.  I don\'t think any exist.

[Silver Charm]

JB was about 12 when Canonero won the Derby and probably betting at Belmont and every other NYRA outlet using sheets back then.

Look Frank Whitley and the Seabiscuit trainer both pulled out of Match Races with nearly as much fanfare and national recognition on the line. Nobody has bailed on a Triple Crown.

Dutrow has played this whole thing pretty fast and fancyfree. I put up a post several years ago just before Smarty Jones Triple Crown Belmont bid.

NOBODY GIVES YOU ANYTHING AT THIS LEVEL. YOU HAVE TO EARN IT!!!!

If the man upstairs decided Dutrow had no competition in sight but also was not showing enough respect for the task. He just made his job a little tougher and the nights a little more sleepless.

Dutrow and Big Brown are going to have to earn it. Mother Nature is seeing to that............

[miff]

\"Despite all attempts to play down Canonero\'s various ailments, insiders knew (SI, June 7) that the colt was not ready for the test ahead. A week before the race he had a skin rash, an athlete\'s-foot-type infection and \"burned\" heels. He missed two vital days of exercise and gained 50 unwelcome pounds\"


...or maybe this got him beat.


Mike

[alm]

Why wouldn\'t some of this stuff be symptomatic of a horse in regression?

[miff]

The signs of regression are often not visible.If a horse is laying down the day after a race( and thats not his norm) it would be a sign.Poor eating, lack of power jogging/galloping, dull demeanor etc would also be signs.

Many trainers are fooled that their horse \"came out great\" and the big effort  seemingly took nothing out of them but many of those horses bounce like a spalding anyway.Many horses do not \"present\" regression because there is no way to really tell how much of themselves they left on the racetrack after a huge effort.

It may be possible that the skin rash and other things that were ailing Canonnero were  signs of regression since the horse may have lost some of it\'s  \"ability to resist\" from the big efforts.Doubt anyone knows for sure.


Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- right on the money. For whatever reason, they are more likely to show exhaustion after the next race, the bounce.

[Silver Charm]

I just heard on ESPN that Trainer \"Rick Dutrow said Big Brown was doing better than ever\".

Is this what you were referring to or does Dutrow really know what he is talking about. Guess we will find out in two weeks.

[fkach]

>Is this what you were referring to or does Dutrow really know what he is talking about. Guess we will find out in two weeks.<

I can\'t comment on his honestly, but I think competence is the primary issue in evaluating the horse. So if he\'s honest, he\'s probably right.

[Silver Charm]

The horse has had two respectably difficult efforts in his last 3 weeks. Gets confined to his stall for 3 days because of a foot issue and has \"never been doing better\"?

Kinda doesn\'t add up.

And yet with a large part of the public tuning in to the story what else is he supposed to say.

The trainer is a fairly \"street sense\" smart guy. But this is unchartered waters for him so he better have his thinking cap on 24/7 for the next 11 days.

[Silver Charm]

Just saw Michael Iavorone on the floor of the NYSE being interviewed acting classy and looking like $50M bucks.

Meanwhile a headline below from a Richard Rosenblatt column.

http://www.kentucky.com/232/story/417227.html

Dutrow has walked the walk and talked the talk so far. But I think I have figured out his MO. This is his release because he is............

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fpupBCL6TE

[Silver Charm]

This was without a doubt the poorest prepared horse going for the Triple Crown in history.

Being eased on the far turn with no apparent distress after hearing for three weeks how great the horse was doing can not be given a free pass.

Somewhere out there John Servis is smiling and saying maybe, \"I\'m not so stupid after all\"........

[fkach]

SC,

I respect your opinion a lot, but I don\'t understand where you are coming from on this one.

Are you saying he misread the horse?

I don\'t see what he could have done differently?

If you are in the category that thinks it can be tough to keep these horses at their peak for all three (which I agree with), he gave the horse as easy a Preakness as possible, didn\'t work much in between any of the races, and started with only two preps instead of three or more. This was probably one of the freshest horses to ever try.

If you were in the category that thinks the horse did too little between starts (I\'ve actually heard that view), he had no choice in the matter. He missed three days because of the hoof and couldn\'t do much more.

Unlike most of the other horses that failed before him, BB didn\'t get beat by a horse that ran better today, didn\'t get beat by a horse that was simply the better horse to begin with, didn\'t get a horror show trip that cost him the win, didn\'t tire late because he couldn\'t handle the 12F, didn\'t get used in the pace etc... This was an entirely different set of details from the other failures.

There is something wrong with this horse!

But it could easily have happened in today\'s race. If not, perhaps even Dutrow underestimated the impact of losing so much training or didn\'t notice he was off because there were no outward signs (eating etc...).

To me, that\'s about the only thing that I might take from this race. This horse has had repeated problems with his feet. Even if he was one of the also rans in the first two legs, he was a fairly high probability to have a repeat problem with his feet along the way. That it actually happened and cost him some training, was an obvious incremental negative/risk over and above the usual risks. The question I had before the race (and still have now) is how do you quantify that risk and tell if the horses is ready or not. I still don\'t know.

This adds one more to the list of top horses I have seen that didn\'t fire after having a problem similar to this, missing some training, but running anyway. But it\'s still too small a list to be statistically meaningful.  

In the mean time, for all we know some new injury etc... may have happened today.

On another topic.....

From what I heard it was a debacle at Belmont. There was no cold water, bathrooms were locked up and women weren\'t told (despite waiting on line for 30 minutes) etc...

This was one of racing\'s rare opportunities to make new fans, but from what I gather, NYRA drove off thousands permanently again.

[Silver Charm]

Babe said time after time his \"horse was never doing better\" because that is what the horse kept telling him every day.

Babe said John Servis got his horse beat (Smarty Jones) because he worked him on an off track.

Babe said the Japaneese horse who scratched was no threat anyway because he personally would be standing in the winners circle by the quarter pole.

Babe was being hailed throughout the day and weekend (Fridays preview shows) as a world class horseman and we were going to be watching a once in a life time performance. We\'ve never let Kent him open him up yet Babe said

No one ran a more unprepared horse yesterday than Babe. Animals with half of Big Browns talent ran to the best of their ability and their trainers (Zito, Carroll) got it out of them.

Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, Charismatic and others laid it on the line, gave it all they had and got beat. Their trainers said before the race I have done everything I could to get him ready and said the same thing after the race and that it just wasn\'t meant to be.

Big Brown and Babe did it a different way. They quit.