Those charmed by and defending cheaters

[jbelfior]

Play turf races. You don\'t see many of these guys dominating racing on the grass because it requires actual training skill.


Take a look at the super trainers winning percentages on dirt versus turf. Look at the guys who win consistently on the grass (Clement, Mott, Motion, Tagg, Shugs) ...clean, right?


Why? Because turf racing is all about late speed. Don\'t you find it curious that a large percentage of the move up horses these fakes \"train\" all have early speed?


THE GRASS IS ALWAYS GREENER!!!!



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

You\'re getting warmer...

[smalltimer]

That\'s an interesting concept considering Clemente, Mott, Motion, Shug and Tagg are collectively 792 wins in 3,940 starts (20.1% Win) over the last 2 years.

Not including the fact that ALL 5 trainers show a negative ROI in turf races.
Clement -0.36, Mott -0.26, Motion -0.12, Shug -0.05, Tagg -0.33.

[P-Dub]

He didn\'t advocate betting them blind.  A negative ROI means nothing.  Any competent player will filter those starters and obtain a positive ROI. Whats your point??

[smalltimer]

My point is, he makes no sense. Just arbitrarily says, \"play turf.\"  
Doesn\'t say anything about filtering those starters to reach a positive ROI.
Besides, what is their collective differences when comparing their dirt numbers to their turf numbers?
And what % do those move up trainers have when comparing their dirt to their turf numbers?  Just another general statement with no info to back it up. It\'s just more sour grapes from a player who has given up part of the game.

[TGJB]

I\'m pretty sure that what he was saying is that since there are far fewer trainers who get move-ups on turf, those races are more likely to conform to regular handicapping principles. And he\'s right.

[jbelfior]

Smalltimer:



Clement-Mott $35 exacta today at Belmont. Not a bad ROI if you had it 50 times.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[smalltimer]

Did you have it 50 times?

[easygoer89]

I\'m usually a person who does not respond to this blog, more of a reader as a fan of the sport and someone who has made what I consider to be good money since being introduced to the sheets.  Smalltimer seems to be someone who likes to create controversy since joining the blog a few weeks ago.  I have found that using the sheets I have made a lot more money on turf using the sheets since I started using the sheets, OPS Smile over Flag Down in the 97 Manhattan.  I agree there is less games played on the grass than on the dirt.  As for the poly issues as with everything else I will adapt as I love the sport and they could be running on asphalt around Fenway Park and I would follow it.  Some of us follow the sport because we love it as a place to enjoy our spare time.  Ive been to every Belmont since 78, Derby since 82 and Preakness since 85 and there is no greater sport.  So as Jerry pointed out on an earlier posting in the last week or so go back to talking figures or get off the page so us fans who want valuable info, get it and not the BS everyone else is bringing.

[jbelfior]

$100 box. Some days I\'m smart, most days I\'m not.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fkach]

It\'s funny how people play this game so differently. Some people avoid races with \"move up\" trainers and others consider them a bread and butter part of their game.  

When I open my DRF, the first thing I do is look for all the favorable trainer changes to see if there are any prospects for a bet. After that, I start looking at some details of the horses\' ability, competition, figures etc... Over the last 3 years, trainer changes have been among my most profitable plays.

[smalltimer]

kfach,
I confess, that\'s exactly what I do.  When I find something real strong I generally know I\'m playing the horse in that race its just a matter of how I want to play it. I\'m rarely gonna look a gift horse in the mouth, especially at strong odds.