Belmont Thoughts

[richiebee]

Too much concern for the human connections here. Too much concern for cleaning
up the industry, at least this week. Time to let the horses take the center
stage, and for all of us to acknowledge that, at least at the higher levels of
Racing, only the horses are honest.

Wagering Opportunities this Week at Belmont:

1) Daily Double Friday/Saturday: Grade II Brooklyn Hcp/ Belmont Stakes-

In the Brooklyn, now run at 1-1/2 miles, Pletcher\'s AP Arrow is 120 pound
highweight. Other nominees Nite Light (Pletcher/ 117), Hunting (Shug/115),
Sightseeing (Shug/115), Evening Attire (P. Kelly/114),Imawildandcrazyguy
(Kaplan/114). Contessa\'s Successful Affair, who was scratched out of a 25K
NYB 1-1/2 mile claimer Saturday, is also nominated.

2) Saturday Undercard:

ACORN (GR I, One Mile)-- Proud Spell, Pure Clan (now IEAH owned) and Golden Doc
A, all KY Oaks runners, are nominated here.

MANHATTAN (GR I, 1-1/4 Turf) Nominees include Better Talk Now and his rabbit
Shake The Bank. Cosmonaut, Dancing Forever, Einstein, Parading, Pays to Dream,
Shakis and Silver Tree some of the familiar ones who are nominated.

TRUE NORTH (Gr II, 6f) The nominees include Benny the Bull, synthetic star In
Summation, Kelly\'s Landing and Thor\'s Echo.

JUST A GAME (Gr I, F/M One Mile (T)) Nominees include Criminologist, Dreaming
of Anna, Masseuse and Rosinka.

The nominations for all stake races (and the weights for the handicap races)
are available on the NYRA website for those like me who just can\'t wait 2 days
for entries to be drawn.

Big Event: Looks like a field of 9 as Sharp Candle and Tomcito will not
participate. I know the superfecta/trifecta players were looking for a larger
field and if you want those visions of parimutuel sugarplums you really
have to hope for a BB off the board finish.

Exacta pools-- to me the value would be to throw CDrive out of the mix as an
overbet second favorite. My opinion, however, is that the \"drunken tourist\"
contingent (which will be quite large on and off track) (not that there is
anything wrong with that) will be heavily involved in the exacta playing BB over
\"ALL\" meaning the exactas with even the longest shots in the race could pay
less than $25.

To yours truly, this means looking to the multiple race wagers and hoping for
large fields. I will make P3s and P4s with BB, probably between 20% - 30% of my
total investment, with the rest going into mad spread tickets with the 3 Derby
to Belmont \"kangaroos\" (the horses that hopped over The Preakness)-- Tale of
Ekati, Denis of Cork and Anak Nakal.

Do I think that there is a 70% chance of BB losing the Belmont? BB is the
fastest horse, and carries equal weight with slower rivals here. He does however
carry the added weight of the recent history of Triple Crown near misses on his
back.

[covelj70]

Good post, thanks

I agree that the multi race exotics are going to be most interesting and one of the more interesting opportunities within that sequence is going to be Benny the Bull in the True North.

Going against the chalk in their first off the plane from Dubai has historically been a good angle.  I am anxious to see how much faster he is than the others so what kind of regression we would need to see from him in order to beat him and possibly create some value in the pick 6.  I think he will be a single on many smaller pick 6 tickets (I believe this is the first leg) and I think this is awfully quick for him to be coming back to the starting gate after the Dubai race.

[girly]

Wow, RichieBee you have my super. What does this mean? I hope it means I\'m learning something! Good luck and thanks for the post!

[jbelfior]

Richie Bee:


Good point. The exacta value with Big Brown on top will be minimal as indicated in the Preakness with a $36 payoff involving a 40-1 shot in the 2-hole.


Horizontal betting will be the way to go; tossing BB and CD and getting lucky could make your year. Case in point,2004. Intercontinental at 6-5, a Pat Day sprinter at 7-2, Meteor Storm at 6-1, followed by Birdstone added up to a $7,000 plus pick 4 payoff.  


A 3x3x3x2 Belmont Stakes longshots is 54 bets. A $10 pick 4 could get you $30K-$40K, even with logical favorites taking down the first 3 legs.

   
$540 dollars and a dream. More realistic than a dollar and 18 million to one odds against, wouldn\'t you say?



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Lost Cause]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> Horizontal betting will be the way to go; tossing
> BB and CD and getting lucky could make your year.
> Case in point,2004. Intercontinental at 6-5, a Pat
> Day sprinter at 7-2, Meteor Storm at 6-1, followed
> by Birdstone added up to a $7,000 plus pick 4
> payoff.  
>
>

If you don\'t like Big Brown on Belmont Day please play the Friday/saturday special Double also.  I played it the last time they had a triple crown shot with the favorite winning the Friday Race (Acorn at the time) and Birdstone winning the Belmont and the double returned something like $700-$800.

[sekrah]

My horse-by-horse analysis of Belmont Stakes of what we know to be the horses running Saturday.  Anyone left off probably has no chance.  I always cap Belmont S. differently than other races.  I use TG speed figures but always my own pace/energy figures to determine who can get the unfamiliar distance.


ANAK NAKAL - Completely gassed in the Ky Derby, Wood, and Rebel.  Was 8-10 lengths off the hot Wood pace that set up perfectly.  Nothing in the tank as he wrapped up the final furlong of the Wood in 47.82 FPS (Feet Per Second).  Wouldn\'t play this one at 200-1 Saturday.

BEHINDATTHEBAR - This horse isn\'t a top quality graded stakes horse and certaintly not a 1 1/2 miler.  Only big stakes win in the Lexington was handed to him by a bunch of slobs giving him a perfect pace scenario.  IMO, If he runs, he\'ll be nothing more than a Big Brown wrecker for another Pletcher horse that I\'ll talk about later in this post.

BIG BROWN - In analyzing my energy numbers on him, the supposed \"turn of foot\" or \"another gear\" that people have been harping about looks more like everybody else just collapsing and he being the better horse.  In his three G3 races, he turned in mile times of 135.3, 136.2, 135 flat.  Adjustments a certaintly in order for ground loss around the turns in these races.   He finished the final 1f Fla Derby in 50.7 FPS, The Ky Derby in 51.96 FPS, and the Preakness in 51.83 FPS.  Obviously an extremely impressive animal, but without the rest, easy to toss as a key.

CASINO DRIVE - CD finished up a very impressive 135.1 mile time in the Peter Pan with an awesome 53.65 FPS over the final furlong of that race!!  Granted, he did have the rail trip for that 135 that Big Brown didn\'t have..  But this effort certaintly bodes well for him going 1 1/2 mile.  He\'s certaintly one of the best 3 yo\'s out there and if Dutrow doesn\'t think he\'s a serious threat to BB, he\'s still doing drugs.

DENIS OF CORK - Interesting horse indeed.  He\'s always finished his races stronger than he\'s started them so he must be considered as a good contender to hold his figures over 1 1/2 mile.  Terrible pace scenario for him in the Illinois Derby gave him no chance to win that one. Leparoux just let everyone else get away with the lead without sweating.. Despite losing ground he closed the final furlong of his 137.3 mile in 50.76 FPS..  He also finished up the Derby in about 51.96 FPS, but had a much slower mile time than Big Brown.  If he makes the long awaited move forward, he might make a run at it.  I\'ll definently be using him in the exotics, but not as a key.

ICABAD CRANE - Closed up the preakness in a very quick 52.10 FPS.  He needed a rail trip though to get his 137 mile.  Lightly raced horse gives him a chance to move forward at a distance he may like.

MACHO AGAIN - I hate this horse.  I threw him out in the Preakness and was stunned that he was able to hang on for 2nd while many of the others petered out and to see him as a potential entry into the Belmont really makes me queasy because I don\'t like him here either and he could be the one to wreck my exotic tickets.  This horse has never displayed any kind of Grade 1 raw speed at any point of any race in his entire career but he somehow just manages to hang around hit the board at Pimlico.  Maybe he\'s just one of those sustained runners that can carrie a moderate rate of speed all day?   His pedigree doesn\'t suggest this at all though.  I don\'t know what to do with him yet.  First inclination is throwout.

READY\'S ECHO -  This is Pletcher\'s silver bullet folks!!  The horse that wrecks Rick Dutrow\'s day!!  Stamina pedigree on dam\'s side is very very strong and early evidence from my analysis tells me this horse can run all day long!  This horse spotted Casino Drive and the rest of the field 15-17 lengths in the Peter Pan after a crumby start.  Belmont\'s leading rider John Velazquez, rode Rags to Riches last year, withdrew his committment to Anak Nakal to take the mount on this one.  I fell in love with this horse since his debut when he finished 2nd in Z Humor\'s maiden win.  He closed back from two dozen lengths off the pace to grab place.  Tom Durkin about fell out of his seat.  Watcall of the race is hilarious .   This will be one of my major keys (along with Casino Drive).

TALE OF EKATI - Good pedigree for the distance but everything he has shown on the track has been disappointing as far as going 1 1/2 mile.  He has shown to be very difficult to rate at times and fighting the jockey to goto the front.  Seems like a good pick for the BC Mile down the road as he is very fast when uncoiled.  A complete toss IMO.  TOE and Eibar Coa will both be worn out well before they get to the stretch.  The stretch run of the Wood went in a crawl 48.52 FPS after he did the mile in 138.4?  Also wore badly in the KY Derby after 137.3 mile, closing up in under 49.7 FPS.   Poor rating ability and hasn\'t shown ability to run strong late in these route races.  TOSS HIM!


KEYS:  Casino Drive, Ready\'s Echo

HEAVY USES:  Big Brown, Denis of Cork

BACKEND OF SUPERS: Icabad Crane, Macho Again

[ajkreider]

Serious question:  

What does FPS tell us that looking at the time for the final furlong doesn\'t?

[sekrah]

Easier on my eyes.

[richiebee]

Sekrah:

Good analysis though I do not necessarily agree with all of your points.

With regards to TOE, I will be using him based on his experience over the
surface (which also bodes well for your 2 keys), and the fact that his trainer
has been getting great results recently. You are not the first to say that he
will not like the distance, and I would mildly disagree with Jimbo and contend
that his Derby trip, while not as bad as that of the Andrea Doria or the
Lusitania, certainly rivaled that of the SS Minnow.

The race where TOE becomes interesting is the Jim Dandy or Travers, if he is in
good physical condition. TOE\'s sire, Tale of the Cat, won the King\'s Bishop and
was second in the Whitney, both at Saratoga. TOE\'s second dam, Maplejinsky, won
the Alabama and his third dam, Gold Beauty, won the Test Stakes. Are ya
listening Barclay?

[jbelfior]

Sekrah:

You put a lot of work into this....nice!


Couple of questions:


1) After BIG Brown, how many Gr 1 wins accomplished by the rest of the field and who accomplished it?


2) How does a closing sprinter by More Than Ready qualify as Pletcher\'s \"silver bullet?\" Ol\'Todd has lost this race with colts way more accomplished than this one.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[big18741]

I have TOE tossed on distance limitations.Track affinity will only get him to the top of the stretch.I\'m projecting him for an X being toast at the 1/4 pole.

Macho Again is a 0 horse in a one turn sprint.Stretched out to the Preakness distance three weeks later he backed up 2.5 points.Three weeks later and 5/16ths of a mile isn\'t going to help him.I have him X\'ing out of the super.

Da Tara ran in the Barbaro stakes on the front end.He\'ll be your pace setter.When BB comes calling they all seem to collapse out of the money.I don\'t have his TG #\'s but suspect his Barbaro was a new top and maybe not a small one.Another X horse who is poorly spotted here.

I\'d only use those three in all legs at the bottom and only for the minimum.Behindatthebar isn\'t running.


Don\'t have figures on Ready\'s Echo,but I have trouble believing a More Than Ready will flourish at this distance.I couldn\'t toss him,but I won\'t key him.Betting his late kick isn\'t as effective at 1 1/2.

Icabad Crane ran a new top 3.25 in the Preakness.Not a huge one and he did get stopped at the 1/4 pole.Bred on top to run all day.Projecting him for another new top-maybe into the 1 range.Puts him into the under mix as a possible odds key.Runs his race over any surface.

DOC a zero horse in a two turn mile.Loves training at CD.Perfect trip in the Derby 2.5.Reportedly training great at CD again.Sluggish depite winning at the Fairgrounds,and he didn\'t pick his feet up at Hawthorne.Don\'t know what to do with him over this track.Can\'t toss,but can\'t key as the 3rd choice.

Zito ran 14 horses in this race the past sixteen years:

3 tops
3 pair
5 off
3 X

Two of the tops(Andromeda,Birdstone) came with horses he ran in the Derby then skipped the Preakness.Anak Nakal fits the profile,but I couldn\'t key him on a guess.I\'m a bit skeptical of the Wood 2.75 figure over a goofy track.I\'ll gauge Anak by his Derby 4 where he clunked up and passed some horses.Can\'t toss,but hoping he jumps up into the exotics to add some juice.

Pending post positions I\'m playing BB on top with Icabad odds keyed underneath.Motion has been live in stakes all over the country lately.

[flushedstraight]

Regarding using pace figures,

It doesn\'t make sense to me to use TOE\'s finish in the Wood to determine his ability to beat most of these pigs home going 12 panels. The Belmont will most likely be run in a completely different fashion, as TOE ran hard (& wide) early in the Wood. Regarding his slow Derby, as far as I\'m concerned it was a reaction to his big new top. Agreed that if he can\'t rate he\'s done, but if he\'s loping along for the first mile as most do in this race he\'s got a great shot of cracking the exacta unless the undefeated stars both fire their best shots.

[sekrah]

Couple of things..

I\'ve been watching the Peter Pan replay..


At the 6f call, Equibase chart caller has Ready\'s Echo 7th place, 7 lengths back of the leaders.  This is absolutely incorrect.  Durkin called it 12 lengths himself, which is probably right, meaning that he closed the final 3 furlongs in closer to :36.4 rather than the listed :37.4.  Judging from his top end velocity as a 2 yo, he has room to get alot faster!