Belmont & Pick 4

[TGJB]

MJ-- seems to me you have one of the most powerful pieces of inside information I know of (that a horse has had a throat operation since his last race), and are taking a negative position on the horse anyway. I have a different view of the horse in general, but if I knew nothing but that I would use him (and this is the first I\'m hearing of it).

Also, why do you think he\'ll be on so many tickets? Looks to me like he\'ll be bet like a few others, 4th or 5th choice. CD is another matter-- I agree that he\'ll be on the vast majority of the super tickets, so getting him out gives a lot of leverage.

[bstuken]

Any idea when the Thorograph Saturday Belmont card analysis will be available for order?
Thanks.

[TGJB]

Doing it now. Up here later this afternoon, on the phone lines around 8:00 tonight.

[fkach]

>MJ-- seems to me you have one of the most powerful pieces of inside information I know of (that a horse has had a throat operation since his last race), and are taking a negative position on the horse anyway. I have a different view of the horse in general, but if I knew nothing but that I would use him (and this is the first I\'m hearing of it). <

If I recall, we already have some evidence from a couple of Barry\'s horses that that particular procedure is a positive.  Timing??

[mjellish]

Re: Belmont & Pick 4 (104 Views)
Posted by: TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: June 06, 2008 01:02PM

MJ-- seems to me you have one of the most powerful pieces of inside information I know of (that a horse has had a throat operation since his last race), and are taking a negative position on the horse anyway. I have a different view of the horse in general, but if I knew nothing but that I would use him (and this is the first I\'m hearing of it).

Also, why do you think he\'ll be on so many tickets? Looks to me like he\'ll be bet like a few others, 4th or 5th choice. CD is another matter-- I agree that he\'ll be on the vast majority of the super tickets, so getting him out gives a lot of leverage.


-

Hey Jerry,

The operation may help, but I just don\'t think he wants the distance.  I didn\'t like he lost ground through the stretch run of the derby.  I also think he will go off no worse than 4th betting choice and as so is going to be on half or more of the super tickets.  

To me he looks like more of miler, and a very good one at that.  Would love to see him on the grass.  If the surgery helps him get the extra 1/2 mile than so be it.

[fkach]

The Casino Drive story is all over the radio and TV right now. If this horse \"was\" going to be an underlay because of the hype, that may not be the case anymore.

There\'s so much negative talk, he\'s liable to go off at 8-1.

As far as I am concerned, this horse is almost impossible to get a read on.  

You can\'t know good he is \"intrinsically\" because he\'s only had two races. One was against unknown non-entities and the other was a clear cut prep.

It\'s hard to know how this particular trainer prepares his horses for specific spots. I don\'t have his trainer stats. ;-) So it\'s hard to guage how likely he is to improve and by how much (if at all) off a prep.

The training methods appear to very different. So I\'m not sure how much you can learn via observation and timing of his workouts.

There are rumors all over the place.

If someone thinks they can make a reasonable line on this horse, I\'d love to hear the logic.  My range is so wide it\'s worthless.

[mjellish]

Re: Belmont & Pick 4 (2 Views)
Posted by: fkach (IP Logged)
Date: June 06, 2008 02:34PM

The Casino Drive story is all over the radio and TV right now. If this horse \"was\" going to be an underlay because of the hype, that may not be the case anymore.

There\'s so much negative talk, he\'s liable to go off at 8-1.

As far as I am concerned, this horse is almost impossible to get a read on.

You can\'t know good he is \"intrinsically\" because he\'s only had two races. One was against unknown non-entities and the other was a clear cut prep.

It\'s hard to know how this particular trainer prepares his horses for specific spots. I don\'t have his trainer stats. ;-) So it\'s hard to guage how likely he is to improve and by how much (if at all) off a prep.

The training methods appear to very different. So I\'m not sure how much you can learn via observation and timing of his workouts.

There are rumors all over the place.

-

I know.  Regardless of whether CD races tomorrow all this negative press is bound to  screw up what would have been good \"play against\" odds.  I don\'t buy their story about a stone bruise anyway.  Even if true the horse looked sore and off to me all week anyway.  

Going to have to call the race even colder now to make any money if you use BB on top.  If CD scratches there goes the edge in the super.  Race becomes a non-play to me other than pick-4 and pick-6.

[sekrah]

MJ..

I would argue that Ready\'s Echo has a very similar running style to Jazil, no?

[fkach]

I was going to leave CD off at 7-2 or lower and play a few exactas and trifectas with BB on top if the exacta prices looked like they compensated enough for the fact that BB will probably be an underlay himself. At this point, it looks unplayable. I have no strong negative or positive opinions on anyone else even if my own line doesn\'t match perfectly with the eventual betting.

[smalltimer]

kfach,
I\'m limited in what I know about CD\'s trainer, but here goes:
He is the leading trainer in Japan;
CD is being trained the same way as he was trained in Japan;
CD will not run on Lasix but Fujisawa says he \"may\" run with Bute;
He trained Symboli Rudolph, a winner of 7 Grade 1 races including the Japanese Triple Crown.
Not much help, but this guy obviously thinks the horse is very good.  I read back in Feb (pre Big Brown explosion) that Fujisawa felt the Belmont would be CD\'s race to win and had no reason to believe he wouldn\'t win.  Could be trainer talk, but, this guy knows his way around horses.
FWIW
Good luck to all

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

The surgery was to correct a problem that occurred in a work, not in a prior race.  In the past, I\'ve read that these surgeries don\'t always work, so I\'d take the position that the info is negative (possibility that problem will recur) rather than positive (correcting a problem that previously impeded performance).

From the DRF:

Tale of Ekati also has had medical work done on him in the past fortnight. His trainer, Barclay Tagg, on Thursday said Tale of Ekati had a \"very minor procedure\" on his throat after working six furlongs in 1:18.20 on May 26.

\"He displaced his palate in the work,\" Tagg said. \"I didn\'t want to run the risk of it happening in the Belmont. He didn\'t miss a day of training.\"

http://www.drf.com/news/article/95214.html

[TGJB]

The throat problem exhibited itself in a work, it didn\'t happen there. That\'s not how throat problems work-- it\'s not like getting injured in a race or a work. I haven\'t got time to get into this in detail, but the operation will either be a plus or do nothing, depending on whether he was getting all his air in earlier races. The problem with those operations is that they sometimes don\'t stay effective long term (depending on exactly what was done).

[miff]

Small,


Horses are not allowed to run on Bute in NY.Can only be given 48 hours out.

Check out New York State Racing and Wagering Board site(Medication Rules and Regulations). Re NY racing,I believe that many who post here on the drug thing will be very surprised as to what you may not be aware of.



Mike

[miff]

Just another example of the lack of transparency in racing. Something like this should be advised in neon lights or entered in the equibase records for inclusions in the pp\'s, like new geldings etc.

The clueless suits that run the racing game would not have any idea that players want to know this stuff pre race.


Mike

[smalltimer]

I was only quoting what the trainer said back in Feb.
Its racing industry mentality that a mild medication like Bute would be against the rules but the steroids are legal.  Makes perfect sense.