I think all of this talk about genetics is interesting, but to my eye it\'s over analytical. Afterall, I\'m not going talk the teller into cashing a losing ticket by handing her a test tube or citing a phenotype study after betting Guadalcanal to win. I skipped the Preakness because I thought it was a terrible betting race, but I almost feel obligated to post something on the Belmont after crushing the Derby and still being called out on the board by Chuckles. Hopefully I will get this day wrong enough to eat crow and he can send in the clowns.
As far as BB handling the distance, watch his gallop out after the Kentucky Derby. He kept right on going all the way, even after getting caught wide on both turns and losing a lot of ground. The 1 1/2 will be no problem for him. The larger concern is his hoof and the fact that he is the only one that has raced in the Derby and Preakness. His pattern heading into the race is tough to read because he was geared down in the Preakness and we really can\'t say whether he truly regressed or not. On paper he did, but my eyes tell me differently and he is still the fastest horse in the race. The rail is a pesky post. Prado tried to box him in during the Preakness and he may try to do it again here. My guess is Kent will have to go right out of the gate to get out and over before looking to see how the race is going to develop. This could quicken the early pace and set up a lively stretch run even though on paper there does not appear to be much pace in the race.
Guadalcanal just closed 6 lengths into a 25.20 final quarter in his last race, so the distance will not be a problem. Class and ability are very suspect. His best TG figure is a 9 and this leaves him with way to much to do. Toss.
Macho Again had to steady on the Preakness turn, went 5 wide and was still passing horses in the stretch once he regained his momentum. He also continued to gallop out well after the finish of the race and has come back to train extremely well for the Belmont. His best TG number is a 0, which puts him in the mix here, but that came in a long, one turn sprint at Churchill. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he either will or won\'t handle the 1 1/2 distance, but I\'m betting he will run his A+ race for as long as he can, which may even mean he runs a new top if he gets the distance.
In the Derby Dennis of Cork had to rally into an average pace from 20 lengths out of it and still managed to pass every horse except for two. This was a big effort, and better than his TG number of 2 would indicate. His previous established top was a 0 which he ran back in Feb. This leaves him room to improve. He is small framed and his connections said he came out of the derby a tired horse. He has since had 5 weeks to recover from that effort and began to train exceptionally well, looking better and better leading up to the Belmont. His running style will probably hurt him in this race because one run closers typically don\'t win the Belmont. He will either have to be closer early or have some type of pace to run at, but his numbers indicate he is a contender here and he will probably be a fair price.
We can assume Casino Drive will most likely handle the distance based not only upon his genetics but also by his closing 1/8th in the Peter Pan, which was 12.60. How well he came out of that race, how he will handle two turns of American style racing and a much tougher field are an entirely different matter. His connections seem to be fine with how he has been training, but to my eyes something seems amiss. No works in 4 weeks says \"sore and tired horse\" to me. I also don\'t like how he\'s been failing to change leads and counter cantering in his gallops. On paper he is a contender, but he has only raced twice against Jr. varsity fields at best. We know nothing about the horses he beat in his maiden and Mint Lane is no Alydar. So Casino Drive may be the real deal, but he may be overrated and no matter what he is a definite underlay.
Da Tara is still eligible for an ALWN1x race and his TG top of 3 is too slow to contend here. This is a big step up in class and he would need to move way forward to hit board. His only prayer is to take them wire to wire after a 1/2 in 51 and change, which is not likely. He is the second Zito horse to be entered here. I think this makes him the most likely horse to deliberately try to do something to make BB have to work for his money, and he may be in the race for this reason and set up Anak Nakal.
Tale of Ekati was gassed in the Wood Memorial and staggered home after chasing War Pass through suicidal fractions. While I can forgive that, he then came back to lose nearly 5 lengths in the stretch run of the Kentucky Derby after having a fairly easy trip. While training for the Belmont he flipped his pallet in a 6F workout and wound up with a very slow time. His trainer came right out and said he was not at all happy with how things were going. Since then TE has had a minor surgical procedure to correct his throat, and he came back to work much better in his penultimate work. His prior top of 0 makes him a contender here, but because of all the above I doubt he is going to come out and run a new top or even pair his best. My guess is he comes up flat at the top of the lane as he has already shown he is suspect at the classic distances.
Anak Nakal is a one paced runner that is bred to run all day. His TG pattern would seem to indicate he is sitting on a big effort, and he would need to move forward at least 2 points to contend here. Zito definitely knows how to get a horse ready for this race. So if he is putting this one in here then you can bet he is going to run, but I don\'t know if his best will be good enough. He figures to go off at a big price, and his steady pace running style makes him a very dangerous threat in the exotics. If he moves forward, and I think he will, he could trigger some decent $ in the Super and Tri.
Ready\'s Echo has a Silky Sullivan running style, and that usually doesn\'t win the Belmont. He just ran a new TG top of 2 in the Peter Pan and he did match Casino Drive\'s closing kick down the stretch, although he was already too far behind so it didn\'t matter much. Still, he couldn\'t get up to pass Mint Lane in the Peter Pan and I wouldn\'t give that one much of a chance here. He would have to move forward nearly 2 full points and hope some of the others regress to seriously contend, even for 2nd, so I think a minor piece is the best he can hope for.
Icabad Crane is coming off a new TG top of 3 that he earned in the Preakness after getting stuck behind horses, losing momentum and steadying on the turn. He closed well to be third and has the look of a runner that will appreciate the added distance, but he would still need to move forward several points to contend for 2nd and is probably looking at a minor award at best. He does, however, in my opinion have a good shot to hit the board at a decent price.
I think the pace of this race is going to be quicker than people think because neither Casino Drive nor BB are going to want to let each other get the jump on the turn. Historically you don\'t want to make your move in the Belmont until at least the 5/16th pole, and my guess is that one or the other will move before that and it will force the other to go with him. This may set things up for the late runners to have a chance at passing one or both of them.
So what happens if BB and Casino Drive happen to come off the turn together? We have to remember that Dutrow chose to stay home for the Florida Derby after he saw BB look Diamond Stripes in the eye at the top of the stretch and draw off easily during their work together. All Diamond Stipes did was come back to win the million dollar Godolphin Mile. So if BB runs his race and hooks up with Casino Drive at the top of the lane, I am going to bet that Casino Drive will have no chance at staying with him. Once he is beaten, he will probably even spit out the bit. At that point I see DC, MA and AN bearing down the stretch and one of them or more should be able to pass.
So I am going to try to make some money in the Tri and Super by playing against Casino Drive. If he takes second I will cash a saver. If he takes third or fourth I will make some money and maybe even a fair amount depending upon how right I am about some of these others. If he runs out of Super I should be able to crush the race as I have to believe that 80% of tickets out there will have him covered.
I am also going to play the pick 4 with multiple tickets and hope I can get a few home that will offer some value. I think Golden Doc A offers some value in the first leg as she had a terrible trip in the Oaks right when it looked like she was getting good at the right time. Zaftig looks fastest and I can\'t toss Indian Blessing or Game Face.
I also think Fatal Bullet & Run With Me have a shot in the the second leg along with RI, JBK, & MW.
The Manhattan looks like a great, great betting race and a lot of people are going to go deep. Not only am I going to bet this race by itself, it should aslo add significant value to the pick 4 because of all the dead tickets it is likely to generate. I think Out of Control, Dancing Forever and Stalingrad have a shot and will offer lots of value, but you have to respect Shakis, Better Talk Now, Stream of Gold & Proudinsky. How you work this race into your tickets is probably the key to making money on the pick 4 by having some of them leveraged for more money or more tickets than others.
In the last leg, I plan to have a big ticket(s) with BB singled and a smaller ticket(s) with DC,MA & AN winning. I should be getting 25-1 to 100-1 on my BB tickets when you factor in the Super and Tri\'s as well. The smaller pick 4 ticket will be my hedge and the payoffs should be huge, 1000-1 or so if BB regresses. If Casino Drive or one of the others win I will be toast on everything and there will be no Triple Crown. What the hell, we\'ve waited this long. As they say in Brooklyn, \"Wait \'till next year.\"
Happy Hunting!
MJ
