Belmont's Brooklyn

[Lost Cause]

Does anyone think Nite Light can lose today...
He should stalk the 2 around the track and open up in the lane.  The 2 should be able to hang on for second..
Any thoughts?

[sekrah]

He did not want to run today AT ALL.. Took about 3-4 minutes for the starters to shove him in the gate..

[fkach]

They all staggered home. Evening Attire looked exhausted in the last 1/8th  and he was actually getting to the winner.  I hope tomorrow\'s race looks better than that. That had to be the worst Brooklyn in history.

[girly]

Tommorrow is supposed to be 95 out. There may be a lot more unhappy horses and jockeys out there. Does anyone remember what the temp was last year when they cancelled the card?

[miff]

The track super, Passero, has Belmont today app -220(2+ seconds slower than normal in sprints, the dirt mile was -300, 3 seconds off norm)I recall Smarty Jones being swallowed by an unforgiving slow Belmont surface.

Wonder what he\'ll do tomorrow with 90+ temps predicted.

Mike

[TGJB]

Any idea how he comes up with those figures?

[fkach]

Mike,

I\'m a pretty cynical guy. I don\'t think it was any accident that the Belmont strip was heavily tilted to outside sweeping closers on the day Easy Goer (NY) beat Sunday Silence (CA) (not that he needed any help that day).

It\'s hard to come up with a good conspiracy for BB though. He has the rail and some speed, but I don\'t expect them to try to wire. He\'s more or less a NY horse even though he\'s only had one start at an NYRA track, but almost everyone hates Dutrow. I\'m not sure if the conspiracy will be to help him or hurt him.
;-)

[miff]

JB,

Yes,the computer geeks told me two years ago. Their data base is 3 years old and contains every dirt race run in NY.It\'s pretty sophisticated and takes wind into account.From these guys I advised you that Belmonts posted 4 1/2 in cushion was producing wildly fluctuating variants over 10 consecutive racing days about 2 years ago.I believe you agreed and told me how wind, sun affected moisture content differently each day.

On several occasions I compared their \"add on\" or \"take off\"s (as the case may be) to what the Beyer people were adding or subtracting to/from raw.It was pretty close.If you tell me how much you take off for today(when you do the day) I\'ll get their final figs. I think you and they will be very close on variant even though the methodologies differ.


I hope they make the track \"honest\" tomorrow as I hate to gamble on those slow tracks that returns little energy to the horses. I called Porcelli to ask him about it, but he was not available.


Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- you said Passero came up with the variant, is he one of the \"geeks\"? And either way, HOW are they coming up with it. Projection method (using the past figures of the horses), or something else?

[miff]

JB,

You misread my post, I meant Passero (he\'s not a geek) was not grooming the surface the way he normally does. This was, maybe, the result of Tricky\'s complaint that the track was too hard(2 weeks ago).

Roughly,the Geeks do it  by a computer program that looks at the horses \"normal\" range of performance in relation to todays.They then enter some type of adjustments for today(don\'t exactly know) and create a plus or minus  to come up with a variant.They gamble on their figs pretty good and often look at mine(i.e.yours/TG).Their bias/trip notes are incomparable as they tape all NY race replays and the head ons.They only gamble bad trip or against the bias horses.

I can tell you that if you just observe raw every day as I do, their variants make an awful lot of sense most of the time.I\'m not nearly totally familiar with what they do.They are under the radar and no longer work for the very wealthy west coast gambler who passed away last year.


Mike

[fkach]

>They only gamble bad trip or against the bias horses. <

IMO, that\'s a very good idea and will probably remain so.

I\'d guess over 90% of the people don\'t have that kind of information unless it was blatantly obvious. Over half the remainder doesn\'t believe some of these things exist or matter. Most of remainder after that doesn\'t have enough experience or insight to identify a bias or measure its significance properly even if they tried.  

However, I find it hard to believe they can make top notch figures without the kind of analysis Jerry is doing.

[kingfeni7]

yes, my thoughts were that the 2 horse had to fall down to lose and \"pletcher\'s rat\" looked like death in the paddock!!!!
learn the game     lol