I'm Cured

[jbelfior]

Sitting on approximately $40K if Tale of Ekati fires anything resembling his Wood move.


$60 pick 3 going and exacta wheel for the same. I\'m jumping out of my skin as Coa is sitting chilly chasing a goat and Big Brown is starting to sputter and the closers are nowhere.

No sooner do I think this is the day I have been waiting for, D\'Tara, still eligible for non-winners of 1, spurts away and becomes one of the worst 3 year old colts in history to win this race.


Great training job by Barclay Tagg, who had TOE ready to go about 6 1/2 furlongs today.  

Thanks, Barclay. GA could not have cured me that fast!



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Lost Cause]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sitting on approximately $40K if Tale of Ekati
> fires anything resembling his Wood move.
>
>
> $60 pick 3 going and exacta wheel for the same.
> I\'m jumping out of my skin as Coa is sitting
> chilly chasing a goat and Big Brown is starting to
> sputter and the closers are nowhere.
>
> No sooner do I think this is the day I have been
> waiting for, D\'Tara, still eligible for
> non-winners of 1, spurts away and becomes one of
> the worst 3 year old colts in history to win this
> race.
>
>
> Great training job by Barclay Tagg, who had TOE
> ready to go about 6 1/2 furlongs today.  
>
> Thanks, Barclay. GA could not have cured me that
> fast!
>
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

I\'m sure everyone has one of these about yesterday, but here is mine

I had the Pick 4 closing with Denis of Cork, I had a Pick 4 starting with Denis of Cork (That subsequently would have won), I had a Super Box , Tri Box and Exacta Box of 1,3,4,8,9 (The race ran 6/4/(8-9)/3) also had another Super part wheel that would have hit with Denis on Top...

I feel like I just went ten rounds with Tyson in his prime and my hands were tied so I couldn\'t cover up at least....

I can\'t figure out what it would have paid considering the Dead heat would not have affected me..but I know it would have been a nice down payment on a house.

I could not play Da Tara though and I take my hat off to anyone who did use him.

Thanks to TG for even putting me in that position to make the score of my life
and
Thanks to Josephus for the seat..Great view..

[P-Dub]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sitting on approximately $40K if Tale of Ekati
> fires anything resembling his Wood move.
>
>
> $60 pick 3 going and exacta wheel for the same.
> I\'m jumping out of my skin as Coa is sitting
> chilly chasing a goat and Big Brown is starting to
> sputter and the closers are nowhere.
>
> No sooner do I think this is the day I have been
> waiting for, D\'Tara, still eligible for
> non-winners of 1, spurts away and becomes one of
> the worst 3 year old colts in history to win this
> race.
>
>
> Great training job by Barclay Tagg, who had TOE
> ready to go about 6 1/2 furlongs today.  
>
> Thanks, Barclay. GA could not have cured me that
> fast!
>
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.


Anybody else who has never trained or ridden a thoroughbred racehorse want to bitch about a trainer or jockey??

You keyed Tale Of Ekati.  Who\'s fault is that??

This act gets tired

[miff]

Come on Paul,

It\'s always the jockey or trainer,I could never pick a loser!


Joe B,

Always tough to not get a big ticket home.TOE re-confimed he\'s a slow rat, lots of people fooled by his Wood fig which appears to be out of line with his 3yr old performances.


Mike

[Gettwothewire]

I feel your pain. I wasn\'t alive in my Pick 3\'s / 4\'s as you were with cork but I used him heavily as a key. With CD out I new DC would be an underlay but I just couldn\'t land on any of the others to win. I thought AN and RE would run well and hit the board so I also boxed 3,4,8,9, in ex,tri,super throwing BB out. I looking for DC to get moving a little sooner. I tip my hat to zito, he always has them ready for the belmont. Another golden opportunity lost with 1-5 running out.

[jbelfior]

P-Dub :


You\'re very good at figuring out who is a bad bet AFTER the race.
 
I\'m tired of people like you!


Joe B.

[P-Dub]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub :
>
>
> You\'re very good at figuring out who is a bad bet
> AFTER the race.
 
> Joe B.


That wasn\'t even the point.

If you can\'t figure that out, I\'m surprised you weren\'t bitching about the hatchet job Castellano put on Guadacanal.  Or how after running a bang up 2nd to Runaway Banjo, Fred Seitz couldn\'t get a maiden into the winner\'s circle.

Anytime you want a throw-out before the race, PM me and I\'ll help you out. Free of charge.

I would of told you to toss Guadacanal.

[jbelfior]

P-Dub:


I\'m still not getting any answers as to why Tale of Ekati was a poor bet.

TOE arguably had the strongest pace figures in the race and if you thought BB was going to bomb out and the race shape was average, why would TOE be a bad play?

If you are of the same opinion as some others on this board thinking he\'s nothing but a slow rat, then what you are saying is that Jerry\'s number for the Wood was completely bogus.

Don\'t want to hear that he can\'t get a mile and a half. I could agree with that if he went by D\'Tara, opened 3 and then was run down by DOC. TOE stopped way before anyone could assess that he has distance limitations.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fkach]

Joe,

TOE lasted about 8F to 9F before wilting. I would have expected him to at least make a stronger bid, but IMO that was about right.

I think if they wanted to send TOE he could have made the lead, but that was unlikely. Zito already said publicly he was going to the lead with DaTara and TOE had already demonstrated he could sit behind a leader and pick him up.

Why kill yourself once DT went?

His race in the Wood was fine, but the only reason he picked up horses in that spot was that the top horses were in an insane duel in front of him and there was nothing else behind him. He finshed slowly. This horse\'s stamina was suspect based on number of performances and his pedigree.

About the only thing I got right about the race (my post is somewhere on the board) was that Da Tara would be on the lead, TOE would be in a great spot stalking him, but he probably would not finish well or get the 12F.  

It\'s certainly possible I am wrong, but I think this horse is really a sprinter miler that can finish OK in a route in some situations, but not if he actually competes with top horses near the lead.

[fkach]

Joe,

They are saying that TOE was cut pretty badly in the Belmont. So maybe that\'s the excuse you are looking for. We\'ll learn more in later races.

[jbelfior]

Thanks. Weird race.

My thoughts were that his pattern along with DOC were most likely to produce an \"A\" race. DOC ran huge considering the pace and bias. I thought TOE was a better play in the win spot because of his tactical speed. I agred with Jerry about BB. If the Preakness didn\'t produce the stinker, than the Belmont surely would. Even when you\'re right, you\'re wrong!

This game will humble you, throw you Koufax-like curves, send you home with a headache, have you wake up with another headache, and then have you come back for more!!

BTW: Anyone think Curlin is going down on Saturday at 1-5?



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fkach]

>I agreed with Jerry about BB. If the Preakness didn\'t produce the stinker, then the Belmont surely would. Even when you\'re right, you\'re wrong! <

I think a good case for a \"physical bounce\" can be made for this one.

[TGJB]

Trust me, the conventional wisdom will come up with a reason. It\'s already happening on this board.

I\'ve been dealing with this with trainers for years-- the struggle to come up with cause and effect relationships to explain things they don\'t understand.

[fkach]

IMO there is no question that horses wear down after a particularly tough or series of tough races. My only beef is in trying to get at the correct probabilities for these things. Sometimes I have a very strong opinion that something other than a physical bounce caused a figure fluctuation that is being categorized as a physical bounce. If you do that, then IMO you can start overestimating the probability of a horse actually bouncing.  

In this case, I saw some risks to this horse, but you nailed it.

It\'s just unfortunate that everyone that bet against him didn\'t get a financial reward for being intellectually correct. All you can do is feel satisfied that if you make the same kind of bet often enough, you will eventually handicap from Tahiti for awhile. ;-)

[smalltimer]

JB,
Statistics are like bikinis...
What they reveal is suggestive, what they conceal is vital.