>Big Brown was anointed as one of Racing\'s greats without having to face
adversity. When adversity presented itself (Heat? A deeper track than BB may
have liked? Desormeaux yanking on the reins early in the race?)BB proved to be
merely mortal and then some.<
Richie,
The problem is that even though he was steadied, a bit rank early, bumped, it was very hot, etc... it\'s not like he finished a close 2nd or 3rd. If he had, there would be questions about the ride, trip, conditions, or his ability to overcome adversity. He would then fall into the category of horses that lost their bid for the Crown because they got a bad trip, moved prematurely etc... However, BB was done after about 6F. He pretty much didn\'t lift a hoof.
I have no idea what R Dutrow really thought about this horse\'s chances going in, but in hindsight I suspect that if he was worried and knew the horse was a bit short, he wasn\'t going to say that publicly if he intended to run. If something bad happened after he said there was still an issue, it would have been a total public relations disaster for him and the sport.
The thing is, high quality horses don\'t run this poorly unless there is something physically wrong with them.
IMHO, pending new information we are going to have to presume that the cracked quarter and missed training leading up to the Belmont was the cause of his poor effort.
This horse has had chronic hoof problems even when he was just in training. That\'s why he was so lightly raced to begin with. We all knew going in the probabilities of a recurrence of that problem were much higher than usual regardless of his performances on the track. The fact that he actually had a cracked hoof and missed some days of training screamed that the risk of a poor effort were much higher than the PPs alone suggested.
I\'ve been about as positive on this horse as anyone here, but I gave him only 50% instead of 75% because of that one factor alone. Plus, I still haven\'t seen anyone provide any stats that suggest I overestimated the risk. If anything, I conceded that I was probably underestimating it out of ignorance.
I am still having a tough time thinking of any top notch horses that missed some training just prior to an important stakes race that went on to win. However, I can think of several that ran sub par. About the closest thing I can think of was Invasor in the BC a couple of years ago. He missed an important prep. However, K.M. had a lot more time to get him right for the BC than Dutrow had to get BB right for the Belmont.
Pending new info, I think that\'s the lesson of the Belmont. Horses that get sick, have minor physical ailments, etc.. that are bad enough to keep them out of training for awhile just prior to a major race, but not bad enough to miss the race are a very huge risk - especially as the favorite.
When all was said and done, I think the Japanese connections came out of this looking really good. They resisted the temptation to run after traveling thousands of miles, attended the race, said some kinds things about BB, and wished BB all the best despite some of the comments hurled their way by Dutrow leading up to the race. Class act!
