Belmont numbers

[TGJB]

Did the day out of order, I\'ll have Alan post the whole race when he comes in Tuesday. Winner went forward 2 points, next three roughly paired their most recent efforts, give or take half a point.

[rosewood]

THANKS

[miff]

After debate, a generous 99 Beyer for D\'Tara. Slowest Belmont in 20 years by their figs.


Mike

[fkach]

It\'s hard to imagine it could be any faster. Other than BB, they aren\'t a very good group. Arguably, the best horse BB beat was a filly who might not have even been the best filly in the country at the time - even if she was the most suited to 10F. Proud Spell is also a terror and looked awfully good when she won the Kentucky Oaks. The fillies are very good.

I think there may be some good \"bet against\" opportunities when some of these horses face older stakes and even strong older ALW types in preps later this year.

[P-Dub]

If they\'re that poor, their odds won\'t be low enough to be bet againsts. What horses would these be favored over??

[fkach]

>If they\'re that poor, their odds won\'t be low enough to be bet againsts. What horses would these be favored over??<

I think you have to play it by ear. IMO, this is a very weak group so far. Later in the year at least a couple of these 3YOs will find themselves in a spot against older horses that stack up favorably against them, but get heavily bet anyway.

The public is speed figure oriented, but it is also CLASS oriented. When people see Derby, Preakness, Belmont etc... in the PPs they will assume the horses are better.

IMO....

The thing about class handicapping is that there is a difference between the quality of race and the label of a race. I believe the quality of field a horse earns his figures in matters because the pace is often rougher in higher quality races and the horse horses have greater degrees acceleration, competitiveness, gate speed, stamina, and other less tangible qualities that put them in a position to win, leaving their inferior rivals outrun and beaten.  

Even though the quality of a field and the class label are usually in reasonable sync, sometimes they aren\'t. The public does not pick up on that very well.