"It wasn't me"

[miff]

Ian,

Why not 2 big figures in a row, or 4 or 5.Pure speculation on how many big races knock out a horse. TG had him x\'ing in the Derby and Preakness, what happened?

Mike

[jmetro]

Desormeaux was quoted before the race saying he had to make a decision within the first 100 yards, that he had to react faster than a computer....well he crashed.

We are talking about the Belmont Stakes, not the Breeders Cup Sprint here.  You have more tactical speed than anyone in the race and you are worried about being boxed in?  In the Preakness Desormeaux didn\'t get his ideal stalking spot until he was completely out of the 1st turn, this after being down inside behind the pacesetters for a half a mile.  Watch the replay.  

In the Preakness Riley Tucker makes the front, just like Da Tara did in the Belmont, Big Brown is content to let that one go, Hey Byrn is just off of Riley Tucker, just like Tale of Ekati was in the Belmont.  That\'s a 35-1 and a 30-1 shot that Desormeaux was content to sit behind early in the race. If he rode the Preakness, like he did the Belmont, he would have tried to blast up around Riley Tucker, been shut off by Hey Bryn, then would have steadied his mount and again used horse to get outside those two, likely bumping Gayego in the process.  Instead he was patient, let the pace go early and some seperation to develop, once he had a chance to get outside Big Brown did it comfortably not rank and fighting the jockey.  Watch the head-on of the Belmont at no time is Big Brown comfortable within the first quarter mile of that race.

Maybe Big Brown wins the Belmont if Desormeaux doesn\'t blow the first quarter mile of the race, maybe he\'s beat anyway.  I for one am objective enough to know that you can\'t contstantly steady a rank horse early in a race and expect the same results as you have gotten with perfect stalking trips.  

Patience cost previous Triple Crown wannabees and it certainly wasn\'t a virtue on Saturday.

[Michael D.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Imallin,
>
>
> When you are MUCH the best going in, you take
> command, thats why they wanted BB in front.D\'Tara
> never showed the same kind of speed that BB
> displayed, for example, the Fla Derby clearing
> from the 12 post.
>
> He broke well enough to make the lead, but
> Desormeaux took hold as soon as he saw D\'Tara.  If
> he made the lead easily he still would have been
> off the board, imo. Having found no
> infirmiry/sickness, one has to assume he was over
> the top or if you believe several trainers,Billy
> Turner, Lukas, he was undertrained.
>
>
> The horse was empty, period, the poor/panicked
> ride irrelevant.
>
>
> Mike



Mike,

Da Tara got to the 1/2 in :45.2 in two of his last four races, and the Zito/Garcia team was determined to get the lead. if Desormeaux had tried, BB might have avoided the trouble, but would have been toast just as early imo.

the ride might have been a very minor factor in the perfect storm of defeat, but I agree, the horse had virtually no chance of hitting the board with any type of ride.

[P-Dub]

jmetro Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> > In the Preakness Riley Tucker makes the front,
> just like Da Tara did in the Belmont, Big Brown is
> content to let that one go, Hey Byrn is just off
> of Riley Tucker, just like Tale of Ekati was in
> the Belmont.  That\'s a 35-1 and a 30-1 shot that
> Desormeaux was content to sit behind early in the
> race. If he rode the Preakness, like he did the
> Belmont, he would have tried to blast up around
> Riley Tucker, been shut off by Hey Bryn, then
> would have steadied his mount and again used horse
> to get outside those two, likely bumping Gayego in
> the process.  Instead he was patient, let the pace
> go early and some seperation to develop, once he
> had a chance to get outside Big Brown did it
> comfortably not rank and fighting the jockey.
> Watch the head-on of the Belmont at no time is Big
> Brown comfortable within the first quarter mile of
> that race.
>
> Maybe Big Brown wins the Belmont if Desormeaux
> doesn\'t blow the first quarter mile of the race,
> maybe he\'s beat anyway.  I for one am objective
> enough to know that you can\'t contstantly steady a
> rank horse early in a race and expect the same
> results as you have gotten with perfect stalking
> trips.  

You answered your own question.  BB allowed Desormeaux to settle him in the Preakness. He didn\'t in the Belmont. Bad ride, over the top horse, whatever.

This subject has been beaten to death. Enough already.

[fkach]

Mike,

That\'s one of the problems. They all eventually wear down and go off form from the strains of racing. Form cycles are nothing new. They were written about in the very earliest books on handicapping. The trick is to get the probabilities for any given race as close as possible otherwise you can can broke waiting for the bounce before you eventually get it right. It\'s not easy. The thing that TG brings to the analysis is the insight that extreme performances can accelerate the process.

[cubfan0316]

48 and 1 on a fast track and big brown labors behind?   well lets see, maybe fighting to get 5 wide on the first turn instead of sitting behind then pulling out after would have been the smarter move.

[P-Dub]

You guys are amazing.

A 1200 pound, amped up thoroughbred is rank and won\'t settle for his jockey.  Yet, somehow the jockey, through some sort of magic, is supposed to get this animal to relax and rate behind the speed.

Big Brown was rank and about to run up the heels of Da Tara.  This was not the same horse that allowed Desormeaux to rate him in his 2 previous races.

As far as being 5 wide,  funny none of you bitched and moaned after the Derby when he was 5 wide all the way around the track.

What exactly should Desormeaux have done??

-Rate him??  The horse didn\'t allow him too.
-Go to the lead??  The horse didn\'t break well enough.

This was far from the best ride we\'ve ever seen, but it didn\'t matter. He wasn\'t going to win anyway.

[TreadHead]

Give up P-Dub, it seriously is not worth it.  If there are people out there who honestly think BB could have won or even finished in the money had he gotten to the lead or stayed on the rail behind Da\'Tara, all I can say is, I\'m very happy to be sharing the mutuel pools with them.  And if you don\'t believe that, commenting on the ride is absolutely irrelevant.

[hossgnat]

Agree with all your points.  Let\'s face it -- BB failed miserably.  Why?  There\'s no reason and there\'s a hundred reasons.  This is horse racing.

KD is an easy target and Dutrow chose to fire at him, at least initially. Dutrow is many things, including a man who takes pride in his work.  When KD says \"I had no horse\" to millions of viewers, what trainer wouldn\'t take that personally in that situation.

I didn\'t have the winner, but sensing a soft pace I used him underneath. The results  weren\'t that shocking, were they?  Only 2 horses with any semblance of speed and one  of them doesn\'t run his race.  The other is more than ready to run, sets soft fractions, and speed-pops the field.  Sure, it was the Belmont and a TC was on the line, but it was just another horse race also.  What kind of odds would we have seen with BB out of the race? The lone speed play would have been a popular angle I would think.

The much more interesting discussion is what we do with BB the next time he runs, an apparent likely possibility.

[jmetro]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Give up P-Dub, it seriously is not worth it.  If
> there are people out there who honestly think BB
> could have won or even finished in the money had
> he gotten to the lead or stayed on the rail behind
> Da\'Tara, all I can say is, I\'m very happy to be
> sharing the mutuel pools with them.  And if you
> don\'t believe that, commenting on the ride is
> absolutely irrelevant.

What a pompous thing to say, Just because we think BB was given a horsesh*t ride we somehow are not successful at the windows.  

Your moniker is half right.