Virginia Derby

[MonmouthGuy]

PPs are out for the Virginia Derby and upon first look through I was surprised to see that Your Round is 15-1 on the ML.  If you throw out his dirt effort in the Ohio Derby, he has run decent figures in his two races at TP on the poly and on the soggy turf in the Colonial Turf Cup.  He was still running at the end despite being 4-5 wide in each and, getting 4 lbs from Sailor\'s Cap on Saturday, if he gets a better trip, he could be live at a big price.   Any thoughts?

[TGJB]

Virginia Derby will be ROTW.

[Ian Meyers]

Thought he was live last time and played him pretty good at a gazillion to one.  Second would have been a big score.

[MonmouthGuy]

thanks.

[jbelfior]

This race will, IMO, be quite different than the one they ran in June.

They ran that race in a bog and I\'m thinking that the ones that closed that day benefitted from a tiring course. The winner (Sailor\'s Cap) absolutely loved it and rock hard firm will bring him back from the level he ran in June although he can still certainly win it. At 7-5, however, no thanks.

I\'ll toss the one run closers in here such as Your Round, El Sultry Sun, and Court Vision. Looking at Jerry\'s race shape, I agree with the potential early fractions which will be a crawl on a rock hard turf.

Gio Ponti will have to be up close early (Gomez too smart to make one run in here) and that may compromise his late kick, especially if his breeding catches up to him.


I\'ll do a tri box with the 3 who figure to be up in front early ; one of them will be a bomb!



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Michael D.]

the favorites look best, but if the turf comes up firm, El Sultry Sun will be the key at the ml of 10-1. looking at race shapes, Prado should be able to get to the rail and save much of the ground. distance is a concern, but the half to Solar Splendor and Sultry Song has a decent shot at getting the 10f. a 1w/1w run in the \'4\' range will be competitive.

[Lost Cause]

Can\'t get by Sailor\'s Cap in this race...I tried all angles but it doesnt look like a lot of these want the distance as much as Sailor..Hoping I can get at least 2/1 due to the presence of Gio Ponti..If not i\'ll pass the race..I agree with the ROTW analysis, this one looks like he is going to be special.

[miff]

\"Court Visions big effort in the Wood took alot out of him\"



Hee hee, that\'s a good one, needed a laugh.



Mike

[jimbo66]

Miff,

Just don\'t follow up this post with another swipe at Tale of Ekati, or we\'ll have problems here...  

[miff]

Hi Jim,

No shot at TOE,at least he chased a fast pace hard and outgamed 2yr old champ War Pass.Court Vision had the poster perfect fast pace \"set up\" and did not run over them in a patheticly slow last eighth.If that race knocked CV out, the modern horse is really sad.Seriously don\'t know if the ROTW scribe was making a joke or not.


Mike

[jimbo66]

Miff,

I would bet a lot that the scribe was not kidding.  I know your view of the Wood and I understand.  But the \"numbers\" guys will tell you the horse got a \"2\", which then seems to have sent the horse backwards.  

Tale of Ekati worked lousy on turf, BTW.  Now thinking of maybe running in the Haskell.

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

I am hoping Tagg tries TOE at the Spa.

Lots of Spa Graded stakes winners in his pedigree-- Tale of the Cat (won Kings
Bishop, second in Whitney),Gold Beauty (won Test), Maplejinsky (won Alabama),
Sky Beauty (won Alabama) ...

[miff]

\"Tale of Ekati worked lousy on turf, BTW. Now thinking of maybe running in the Haskell\"


Jim,

We\'ve all seen \"knock out\" figs/performances,CV\'s wasn\'t even close to being one of them.Thats the problem with solely looking at numbers on a piece of paper and drawing conclusions without regard for any other factors.To each his own though.

Re the Haskell, TOE looks to be going and BB is not exactly burning up the track in the AM. BB is being handled too gingerly,imo, and if he doesn\'t pop a quick 5/8ths soon, he becomes a target if a good alternative shows up.The prospective Haskell entrants look pretty ordinary so far.Good Luck!


Mike

[Uncle Buck]

I gotta go with my namesake, Old Man Buck, on top. Playing exacta\'s and tri\'s keying #2 with 3,4,7,8. Hopefully Robby utilizes the inside post to his advantage

[P-Dub]

I also like the #2 Old Man Buck. First race back equals his 2yo top, slight forward move takes this. Anything close to his ML is a strong win bet for me.

Key OMB on top, key Sailor\'s Cap underneath with the 1,3,4,7. Will also play a ticket without keying SC underneath. Will play 1 ticket with SC on top of OMB over the others.

Anybody think The Shark will hold on tomorrow??