Arlington - Saturday

[shanahan]

horse of the day for me in all multi-race wagers will be Rosinka.  distance, bit of moisture in field (no way it\'s dry by now), motion shipping, and Precious Kitten has not been in the money if the turf has not been dry.

Skipping the trip this year in spite of the great draw the Cardinal / Cubs...

My pik 3 (races 8-10)
8   2.6.7/2,6,7/all
   
9   2/all/3,7,8
   
10   1,3,5,6,7

the pik 3 = $15...good luck everybody...GO CARDS (Cubfan will love that).

[Silver Charm]

Looks like a really good day of racing and the Spa is not bad either if they stay on the grass.

With the PGA golf plus racing Living Room Downs is feeling pretty good now.

What about the Clement mare in Bev D? She wins the close ones.

[shanahan]

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Looks like a really good day of racing and the Spa
> is not bad either if they stay on the grass.
>
> With the PGA golf plus racing Living Room Downs is
> feeling pretty good now.
>
> What about the Clement mare in Bev D? She wins the
> close ones.


Christophe needs some wins!

[P-Dub]

Shan,

 Are these 2 different tickets??  Whats the last bet??

[shanahan]

P-Dub Wrote:
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> Shan,
>
>  Are these 2 different tickets??  Whats the last
> bet??

My pik 3 (races 8-10)
2.6.7/2,6,7/all

9) 2/all/3,7,8

10) 1,3,5,6,7

PDub - these would be the individual races, and the tops being the pik 3 - when I posted there was separation after the race #...hope this clears it up!  The pik 3 bet would be 2.6.7/2/1,3,5,6,7

[Rick B.]

Still learning how to read TG\'s, so take this with a grain of salt:

Rosinka\'s sheet bothers me. She started putting it together halfway through her 4 year old campaign (last year), and then they put her away for 8 months. Usually some sort of injury, or medical \"stop\" for that kind of layoff, right?

When she came back recently, she ran in two turf races at Delaware, hung on in one, and got beat in the other at 1/5...vs. nobody. That\'s a huge negative for me -- she should have smoked that field if she was right.

Thoro-Pattern has Motion at 8% new tops for the pair-off-pair sequence, and 42% to pair. Rosinka\'s top is 3 3/4, which isn\'t fast enough to win this, IMO. Hard for me to like her chances tomorrow.

If you\'re looking for a stray piece for the upset, try Communique: after running in the 7 - 10 range all last year, she showed some improvement earlier this year (5 3/4 in a 12 furlong G3 win at Keeneland), threw in a another 7 at Churchill, then ran a 3 1/4 out of nowhere in her last over the soft turf at Arlington. Another small forward move puts her right in the hunt; if she pairs, she probably won\'t be good enough to win, but she could hit the board at a big price.

I have to have every bit of that 12-1 morning line though, because I\'d have to be compensated for trying to beat Dreaming of Anna, Precious Kitten, and Mauralakana -- all in the same race. Or I\'d have to be nuts. Take your pick.

[Silver Charm]

Rick for a guy who last week said I needed to be put in a straight jacket I will give you the benefit of doubt and go with the former.

Not the latter......

I still like Clement and Kent

[shanahan]

Rick - excellent pts as usual.  My thinking is based strictly on distance and the turf being a bit soft.  Doubt anna can keep her attention going the extra footing & have no doubt that Rosinka will NOT be on the lead.  Gotta run...it\'s time to second guess everything I handicapped last night.


Rick B. Wrote:
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> Still learning how to read TG\'s, so take this with
> a grain of salt:
>
> Rosinka\'s sheet bothers me. She started putting it
> together halfway through her 4 year old campaign
> (last year), and then they put her away for 8
> months. Usually some sort of injury, or medical
> \"stop\" for that kind of layoff, right?
>
> When she came back recently, she ran in two turf
> races at Delaware, hung on in one, and got beat in
> the other at 1/5...vs. nobody. That\'s a huge
> negative for me -- she should have smoked that
> field if she was right.
>
> Thoro-Pattern has Motion at 8% new tops for the
> pair-off-pair sequence, and 42% to pair. Rosinka\'s
> top is 3 3/4, which isn\'t fast enough to win this,
> IMO. Hard for me to like her chances tomorrow.
>
> If you\'re looking for a stray piece for the upset,
> try Communique: after running in the 7 - 10 range
> all last year, she showed some improvement earlier
> this year (5 3/4 in a 12 furlong G3 win at
> Keeneland), threw in a another 7 at Churchill,
> then ran a 3 1/4 out of nowhere in her last over
> the soft turf at Arlington. Another small forward
> move puts her right in the hunt; if she pairs, she
> probably won\'t be good enough to win, but she
> could hit the board at a big price.
>
> I have to have every bit of that 12-1 morning line
> though, because I\'d have to be compensated for
> trying to beat Dreaming of Anna, Precious Kitten,
> and Mauralakana -- all in the same race. Or I\'d
> have to be nuts. Take your pick.

[Lost Cause]

I Didn\'t like Precious Kitten at the distance today..I can\'t see anybody beating her though Except Mauralakana who runs numbers close to Precious Kitten and looks like she can run all day.  Dreaming of Anna is a throwout for me today due to Weight , probable pace pressure and distance.  MAuralakana is the key here but i\'ll still back up my Pick 3\'s with Precious Kitten though.

In the Eighth race I love Secret Getaway who has great numbers and will be staking Tizdejavu around the track today so no loose leads for that one.  I think he is the play of the day.  Key for me

In the 10th Einstein is the key but 3 others are really close.  Cloudy\'s Knight might be able to get to the front with the Sudan scratch and put them to sleep on the front end at 20/1.  He has good numbers at this distance to boot.  I\'ll use the 1,2,5 and 6. Protect with an all wheel in the pick 3 and key up on Einstein and Cloudy\'s knight at a huge price.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I understand the Logic of throwing Dreaming of Anna out today, however, do not underscore the fact that \"THE CAT MAN (41%)\" has been pointing this runner for this race this year, in front of home crowd and family and friends for owner FCC. He does have GG up today. I know he means business. (Doesn\'t mean a thing once the gates open)

If I can get 9-2 or better I\'m throwing down.

NCT

[Michael D.]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> I understand the Logic of throwing Dreaming of
> Anna out today, however, do not underscore the
> fact that \"THE CAT MAN (41%)\" has been pointing
> this runner for this race this year, in front of
> home crowd and family and friends for owner FCC.
> He does have GG up today. I know he means
> business. (Doesn\'t mean a thing once the gates
> open)
>
> If I can get 9-2 or better I\'m throwing down.
>
> NCT


9-2 Tony? have to think the odds will be lower.

if PK doesn\'t take to the less than firm going, and Gomez gets his way on the front end, DoA will be tough. she has a few runs in the \'2\' range over the off going, and these Rahy fillies/mares improve a ton from 3 to 5.

let\'s see how the turf looks before making a selection though. PK is the fastest, and will be very tough if the turf is on the firm side of good. if, on the other hand, the turf is good to yielding, I might look at one of the long-shot closers.

no hurry. we have 4 turf races prior to the Bev D to judge the course condition.

[Rick B.]

Michael D. Wrote:
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> let\'s see how the turf looks before making a
> selection though.

According to the Arlington Park website as of 10:15 CDT today:

* turf is rated GOOD

* rail will be at Lane 1 (10 feet inside) for races 2,4,6

* rail will be at Lane 5 (0 feet) for the 8,9,10 (the Gr. I\'s) and race 12

Link at:

http://www.arlingtonpark.com/racing/handicapping/track-maintenance

Weather, according to me: it\'s a bit cool for an August day, and overcast. Feels like about 70 degrees. Not supposed to get much warmer, and chance of rain the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.

Think we are looking at \"good\" for the stakes, unless it rains. Don\'t think it will firm up much more on us, though, with the lack of sun and warmth.

[Rick B.]

You\'re a good sport.
 
I didn\'t realize until much after I made that comment that you were being sarcastic. My bad.

[Michael D.]

the times had been suggesting the course is 5 to 10 ten lengths slow, before the Pletcher went 1:41 and change with Gomez up. what do we do with Tizdejavu now? I\'m still going to try and beat the favorite, but with less confidence now. Winchester has the \'6\' going 10f in Europe, draws well, gets lasix for the 1st time, and gets 9 lbs from the fave. Plan is getting a lot of hype here. like Win, has a decent Euro-fig, and gets weight from the fave. also use Secret Getaway, who has nice Cad form, and might get a good stalking trip. 2, 3, and 9.

in the Bev D, I\'m with Tony - DoA. daughter of Rahy runs well over turf with some give, and looks nicely spotted by Catalano to run her best.

the Million is impossible.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Nice Call Michael, now if we can get this leg I covered with 2-6 with a smaller play on the 5 in the million P3.

NCT