West Point Hdcap

[jbelfior]

I had to look at the Redboard Room agin this morning just to confirm.

How in the world was AL BASHA favored over BANROCK yesterday?

Just goes to show you that Saratoga is a meet where a much smaller amount of the wagering dollar is geared toward any kind of information involving numbers, patterns, etc.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fkach]

Joe,

I agree on both counts.  

I\'ve been saying for many years that this is the easiest meet in the country to beat. It\'s sort of like the old days. There\'s so much unsophisticated money in the pools that even though the sharpest players are still geared towards looking for overlay contenders, their impact on the board is lessened. You can get an extra tick on a lot of good horses because so many bad ones are bet down by the tourists and vacationers.

[congaree1]

Joe, I totally disagree with your post! Infact I think for you to say Saratoga is one of the easiest meets to beat, is pure lunacy!

[HP]

I agree with Congaree.  The fields are deep and there are a lot of horses that jump up and do well since they are pointed for the meet and their \"preps\" can be misleading.  I know a certain guy who owns a certain figure making service that would probably disagree about how \"easy\" Saratoga is as well, though I am not as sure as to how he has done in recent years...    

As for Al Basra over Banrock, the Racing Form had a big article about how Al Basra was ALL SET, and was facing a lot of older horses who looked like they had already established tops.  The horse figured, albeit with some improvement, and given the ALL SET hype, the improvement seemed like a distinct possibility.  

That said, I liked Banrock based on the gd/yl surface, which he had run his best races on.  He was the fastest horse in the race, and he wasn\'t the favorite.  At the short price I threw out Al Basra, especially since there were others that were faster going in at decent prices, and if he gets better at 5/2 and the exacta is Al Basra/Banrock or the other way around, the crowd can have their fun with the $10 exacta.  Unfortunately that third place horse was NOT one of my users, and I settled for what turned into a half-decent exacta.

Now the NEXT race, where they banged down Swept the Series...THAT was a good one.  

HP

[jbelfior]

Congaree:


I can\'t take credit for the \"easiest meets to beat\" quote. You\'ll have to credit \"Fkach\" for that one.

I\'m assuming he meant that it is one of the best meets for value, not only for it\'s contentious fields, but also for an overabundance of tourist wagering dollars.

If that\'s what he meant, I agree with him. I would have used the word \"easier.\" No meet is easy to beat.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

HP-- if you mean me, I like Saratoga. I do a whole lot better there than with the inner at AQU. DMR has always been my best track-- until this year. Going there for a while, we\'ll see how it turns out.

[congaree1]

I myself, do not make many bets at the spa because RGS does not offer rebates. I can also say that several of the players I know, that are large players do not bet Saratoga. I think the more safistacated money is pumped through Delmar. I think the days of the overlay is pretty much a thing of the past.

[HP]

Who else do I know that fits that description JB?  I just remember an 0-for-summer (I\'ve had them too, but I\'m...not YOU!).  I am pretty sure it was the year...Thunder Rumble won the Travers (I remember because...well...I THINK I remember having the exacta...w/Raffie\'s Majesty...paid $90).  

Don\'t mention the Inner Track.  I\'m still smarting over Sonny\'s Bruno.  $11.80 not good enough for a win bet.  And it was COLD that day.  

Good day yesterday.  A bit of spontaneous freedom got me to the Big M for a few hours.  Not JERRY BROWN money, but a good day for HP.

[congaree1]

Raffies Majesty ran a fast closing third to Corronados Quest and Victory Gallop in the Travers. I remember well,I bet him. Think he was injured in the race and never raced again. Did he race in two Travers?

[HP]

My memory is shot.  I don\'t know who the runner up was to Thunder Rumble that year.  Sorry!  HP

[BitPlayer]

Devil His Due

[fkach]

The Inner Dirt is the only meet that\'s almost as easy to beat as Saratoga, but it\'s an entirely different game. On the ID, every year you know that a handful of trainers are going to dominate the claiming ranks with a steady stream of move ups under predictable circumstances. If you stay on top of things, you can sometimes add a new name or two to the list (or throw one out) before the public catches on. Also, on some days inside speed dominates. That makes it easy to throw out some short priced outside closers and build a list of horses for future reference that either took advantage or were disadvantaged by the bias (sometimes even months later). It doesn\'t get much easier than that.

[fkach]

congaree,

It\'s one of the most difficult meets to handicap because there are so many baby races wth first time starters, races with first time turfers, off the turf races that are sometimes difficult and complicate form going forward, shippers, layoffs etc...

However, it\'s one of the easiest meets to beat if you pick your spots because there\'s a ton of very unsophisticated money in the pools.

There\'s a difference between the two.

If you can\'t resist playing races you really don\'t understand well, then you are in big trouble. I guess that\'s always true, but more so at Saratoga because there are lots of ways to go wrong unless you have the knowledge to cope with the complications (or SKIP THEM).

[congaree1]

Without insulting you, I have never in my wildest dreams could imagine any handicapper use the word easy. You have now made it pretty clear, that it is easy for you to dominate Saratoga. As I said in my previous post, I don\'t bet NY because rebates are not offered. Between the 2 year old and NY bred races especially the turf racing, I  would still pass. IMO,if somebody bets those races, they have no regard for money and must hate themselves!

[fkach]

Congaree,

I never said it\'s easy to win there. I said it\'s one of the easiest meet to beat because of the extra unsophisticated money in the pool. There is a subtile difference. However, I\'m having difficulty remembering the last time I lost there.