jbelfior Wrote:
> I won\'t toss the favorite out of my exacta play;
> I\'ll use him in the 2 hole then start looking for
> real value with my key play on top only. If I
> think the favorite can\'t be beat, I don\'t play.
>
> For example, I loved Past the Point in the
> Woodward, but I knew he couldn\'t beat Curlin at
> equal weight. I passed the race. One might ask why
> didn\'t you play the exacta; why?....to collect $40
> while my 53-1 shot runs his eyeballs out but
> inevitably gets beat by a superior animal.
>
>
> Example #2...The Arlington Million. I felt
> strongly about Spirit One\'s chances after the
> scratch of Sudan and knew he had a big shot to
> beat the chalk. How to bet? There\'s a 7 horse
> field and a strong 7-5 favorite in Archipenko. Do
> i bet $200 win on Spirit One (you collect $2,960)
> or make a $200 straight exacta ( I collected
> $6,800). I more than doubled my profit by using a
> 7-5 shot to run second.
>
> Yes, I\'ll run the risk of watching a Spirit One
> win and pay 13-1 while an Archipenko runs out and
> my prime play loses....that day! Over time, I\'ll
> make more money using the exacta strategy. I think
> it\'s more about math and probability and the
> public overplaying the favorite on top in exactas
> than anything else.
>
>
> As good as we may be (or think we are), we are
> going to lose most of our plays. IMO, exotics are
> the only means of making up for the high
> percentage of losing bets.
>
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
I don\'t know about this strategy Joe.
You\'re telling me that the favorite will run second half the time?? I can see maybe splitting the bet. $100 to win on Spirit One and a $100 cold exacta. But to put all of your eggs in one basket, hoping the favorite runs second to your 14-1 shot so that you can double your profit?? You would have to be right 50% of the time to see a slightly bigger profit longterm. You can tell me all you want that this strategy works, but the math really doesn\'t add up. Unless I\'m missing something.
As for the Woodward example. Again, I don\'t see the logic here. You say why watch your 53-1 shot run his eyeballs out only to collect $40. Look at it this way....throw out Curlin. You now have a 6 horse field. You wouldn\'t take 19-1 on this horse in a 6 horse field that doesn\'t include Curlin?? The 53-1 odds don\'t matter because he wasn\'t going to win anyway. If you loved this horse as much as you say, 19-1 against the rest of the field sounds like a pretty square price. You don\'t like 19-1 shots?? Thats basically what his \"win\" price was.
I agree exotics are the way to go. But to get nothing on a 13-1 shot because the favorite doesn\'t run second, or to dismiss playing an exacta because the heavy favorite can\'t be beat and you feel the longshot\'s value is diminished....that price was a mirage in the first place. take the generous exacta price and be happy. Yes, 19-1 is generous when put into perspective.
