ROTW

[jbelfior]

What\'s the likelihood of Commentator bouncing to the point where someone in this race beats him, but he holds second?

Agreeing with the analysis on Dr.Pleasure, the betting strategy that makes the most sense in here is a 3-4 exacta box. Anything with Commentator (@ 1/5) on top of either of these two is unlikely to return $20.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fkach]

The presense of Riversrunrylee can\'t help Commentator. He doesn\'t have the same quality speed as Commentator, but he\'s fast and only runs well when he gets the lead. If they make a legitimate effort to get in front of Commentator, they might finish last (assuming Commentator runs a decent race), but it could take just enough starch out of Commentator to make for an upset if that one isn\'t close to 100%. It\'s not highly likely though.

I think Won Awesome Dude, Dr. Pleasure, and Cuba are all similar. I think whoever gets the best trip gets the place or pulls off the upset.

[number5858]

Don\'t forget to notice that Commentator is listed at 122 lb, which is 10-12 lb more than the others. Every 5 lb is worth about 1 TG point. Look at the timing of the race too. What comes to mind is that this is Commentator\'s BC Classic prep going by the timing. He is not likely to be fully cranked, so this could be little more than a workout.

[TGJB]

As far as I can tell you covered about 90% of the conceivable outcomes as being possible. What was the point of the post?

[fkach]

Basically to offer a few insights that weren\'t covered in the ROTW analysis.

1. I didn\'t think Commentator was very likely to run one of his poor races (he\'s been working well and not like a horse with problems right now).

2. If he did bounce a bit, the risk of him losing despite only a small move backwards was higher than you would otherwise think because Riversrunrylee was also highly likely to give him pressure on the front end. (a cumulative negative). Basically, I was saying that anyone that disagreed with my first point should probably consider him even more vulnerable.

3. If Riversrunrylee ran with Commentator I thought it was highly likely he would be last. I expected River to be shorter than 54-1. If he was, throwing him totally out of triples etc... might be worth something. At 54-1, it\'s clear that everyone else knew that running with Commentator was suicide. So there was no incremental value in the insight he\'d finish last.  

Personally, I really didn\'t see the race as playable, but congrats on the exacta.

IMO, Commentator is having his best season ever. He\'s beaten a few weak fields along the way (much like in the past), but he\'s relaxing better, racing off horses when he has to, holding his form better, has raced on all honest tracks, and IMO would be in the running for HOTY if he could get 10F on synthetic.

[jimbo66]

Fkach,

People on this board actually bet on horses, at least most of us.

You took a 7 horse race with a 1-5 shot and you did your pace analysis crap about a hopeless 54-1 shot, then followed that up with:

Whoever gets the best trip between the 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices, will come second to the 1-5 shot or maybe win the race.

It is just crap, really crap.

[fkach]

>People on this board actually bet on horses, at least most of us. <

Maybe instead of complaining about my analysis, you should either agree/disagree with it or ignore it.  

Personally, I don\'t bet on races with a legitimate 1-5 shot when there are three similar contenders for the place spot whose odds are not all that far apart and the only sure loser goes off way too long to matter. IMO, the race was unplayable as bet. That\'s not my fault. I didn\'t select or bet the race.

If you spent less time complaining about me you might actually learn something and turn a long term profit.

[TGJB]

Your analysis was all over the place nonsense-- there was no reason to post it. Furthermore, regarding an erroneous point you have made several times,I would like to now point out that this is the second time that Commentator has won (and run a huge figure) despite going a very fast half (first Whitney win was the other). 46 flat/ 1:10 going two turns over that track is fast.

[fkach]

Jerry,

I\'ll admit that my analysis was not a literary masterpiece. LMAO.  I was on my way out and spent about 1 minute writing it. If I had more time I would have done a better job explaining my points. In the follow up, I explained what I was trying to say. I was NOT trying to make a pick. I was saying other things. Some of which turned out to be irrelevant at the prices. Given all the gibberish posted here from time to time, I don\'t think that post should have been singled out.

On the other issue...

Pace is a very complex issue. IMO, there is a difference between battling your equal in a sustained fashion and being loose or stalking a wildly inferior opponent even when the paces are similar.

I considered his trip in the first Whitney to be an easy one because he got loose on a track that I made highly speed favoring. I rated the race 123 Pace - 119 Final on the Beyer scale and made the bias an S+. The race was fast-fast, but the pace was not absurd relative to the final time. IMO it was an easy trip for him. I recall hating him next time out for those very reasons when I posted here.  

I haven\'t seen the final speed/pace figures for his race yesterday. So I can\'t comment too much yet. However, I don\'t think the trip was a very tough one even if the pace figure comes back faster than the final time. I did like his race a lot though. It was probably one of his best ever.  

I realize we will never see eye to eye on this issue (or bias either etc..). That\'s partly because the process of making pace figures is more subjective and complex than making final time figures. The relationships between pace and final time are also very difficult to pin down because every horses has different qualities, has a different level of overall ability etc... and there are so many possible pace and racetrack combinations. Like anything else, you develop insights and work from there.

However, IMO from time to time there are uses of the pace factor that are an ideal compliment to your final time figures. I focus on that because that\'s where I find value and because others know more than I do about patterns. Your Race Shapes product concedes the point. I was offering \"quality of pace match up\" as another valuable tool in the arsenal. The impact the probable pace was going to have on Commentator was going to be different depending on which Commentator showed up, but it was certainly going to be a major problem for the other horse regardless. That\'s all.

[TGJB]

Make your next time-to-time after the BC. For real. Last warning.

That fast/fast thing is one of the most moronic comments I have ever seen. His figure for the final time was neg 5. You want his pace figure to be fast compared to that?

I\'ll let you make one more pace related post. From the time of that Whitney on, find out how many 1 1/8th races there have been at Saratoga, and how many have had faster half or 6f fractions in raw time. Let us know. Don\'t let us know anything else in any way related to pace.

[fkach]

Jerry,

I have the fractions for every race run at Saratoga at 9F since 2000 very handy and can go back further if need be.

There were a lot of races faster to the 2F call, some races faster to the 2F and 4F call, and 4 races faster to the 2F/4F call and similar at the 6F call. Those are raw times at a quick glance.

However, there are very few Grade 1 races for older horses run at 9F at Saratoga to make a valid comparison. Most of the races are for mediocre horses that run much slower. Last post to answer the question.

[TGJB]

Just give us a list of the faster half and 6f fractions run at 9f, and a count of the number of races. They run the Jim Dandy (GII), Go For Wand and Whitney, and the Woodward recently. Why don\'t you also give us the average half and 6f fractions of those races from 2005 on, excluding the two Commentator was in.

[fkach]

Jerry,

There weren\'t any faster paces at 9F at Saratoga since 2005, but as I said, there were only a handful of races for Grade 1 older males at 9F since 2005. Prior to 2005, there were several faster paces. I can list them tonight or tomorrow with the dates if you\'d like.

If we can\'t get beyond raw fractions though, we can\'t really have a discussion because we already agree on the fractions at Saratoga since 2005. We also agree that Commentator\'s 2005 Whitney pace was very fast.

My point is that when adjusted and rated properly vs. other races, I see faster paces from time to time every year. You can either accept that as fact or not. If you don\'t or can\'t accept it, just say so and we can end the discussion.  

As I also said, IMO pace is not the only issue.

For example....

In his race following that Whitney (The Woodward), the pace was actually a bit slower to the 6F call than the Whitney. However, IMO that was a massively more taxing pace because he was being double teamed by suicidal rabbits. He was pushed to his limit under pressure in spots instead of running fast but evenly on his own while loose. He was also racing on a more honest race track instead of a biased one.  

I\'ve already said all there is to say on this horse and will bet accordingly. At this point, I\'d rather just throw in the towel on this place and not post here anymore. Not only is no one interested in any potentially valuable pace insights that can be used with figures, they don\'t want them here. This is the only place I\'ve ever visited where people complain about insights that will lead to greater profit potential. Not my loss.

[BitPlayer]

What I know about pace figures wouldn\'t fill a thimble, but Randy Moss\'s pace figs for Commentator (including the Whitney) and the other Mass Cap entrants are publicly available on the DRF site as part of their ROTW.

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08SUFmassachusetts_moss.pdf

Moss list the Race Shape Progression of the Whitney as: \"avg early, avg mid, avg late.\"

A couple of the entrants in the Mass Cap had early pace figures in two-turn races faster than Commentator\'s Whitney.

[jimbo66]

Fkach,

I hope that is a promise......