Commentator's Mass Cap #

[jimbo66]

I hear you Jerry, but I think you oversimplify.   Not everybody who enters can win \"if they run their race\".  Curlin, Big Brown and Commentator are faster than the others, by a gap.  For example, Student Council needs to do more than \"run his race\" to win.  He needs the other faster horses not to run.

Even if I made Commentator 10 to 15% to \"run his race\", I would enter him.  The negative 5, with a trip, is very very likely to win.

[APny]

Do you really think Commentator can run a negative 5 in the breeders cup classic?  Haven\'t all of his big races come when he ran on the lead by himself usually against much less??? I don\'t believe you can take anyting out of him Winning that mass cap race....considering the weak field...and he WONT get an easy lead in the classic...nevermind whether he takes to the poly.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I obviously wasn\'t saying everyone can win if they run their race. I was saying that the risk/reward makes it right for everyone to run-- which was incorrect. Stallion considerations (and tactical ones) might make it wrong for Curlin or BB to run.

Obviously I have an interest in this, but if I were managing Curlin or Commentator, I would go to CD and get them to put up a big bonus for the winner of the Clark, then announce I was going to be there no matter what, challenge BB to fight it out for the title on dirt, and skip the BC.

And by the way, a neg 3 1/2 for SC would probably be 75% to win, on synth.

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

If you were managing Curlin, wouldn\'t you be worried that Commentator would skip the BC and show up in the Clark?

[Silver Charm]

That is a good point. And if were to beat Curlin head-to-head I do not know how he doesn\'t win Champion Older Horse

[jimbo66]

I stand corrected on Student Council, from memory, I thought his top  was negative 1.5 or so,  Didn\'t realize he got a negative 3.5.  In the Whitney?

At negative 1.5 his \"best\" was probably not enough to win, if the others showed up (surface aside).

[TGJB]

Best guess is that Commentator goes there or the Cigar anyway, Zito wants to give him time. Your choice is to run against Comm when he\'s coming off two big ones, or take your chances against BB et al on synth, which Asmussen does not do as well on (see his profile). If Curlin runs a stinker in the BC (and he\'s also at the end of a long season) and Commentator wins his next one, the latter will probably get the handicap award anyway. If BB beats him in the BC he\'ll get horse of the year.

I would go for the rest and the Clark on dirt. At least that way you\'ll get his race. Even if BB then wins the BC, he will not have beaten him or Commentator-- you could force him to meet the two older horses in the Clark, with BB not well rested.