Keeneland's Saturday Card

[richiebee]

...wow...

...only one maiden race on a 10 race stakes filled card.

Jimbo, I expect extensive analysis which goes beyond \"I can\'t bet on this crap\"
as you prep for a BC which I doubt you will abstain from despite your protestations.

[Michael D.]

outstanding card.

not a bad card Friday either.

Precious Kitten and Dreaming of Anna draw 1 and 2 in the First Lady. neither got the 1 3/16 over the less than firm turf Million day. expect better going 1m on firm turf? pretty good pace though, which favors Rutherienne and Forever Together.

thoughts?

[APny]

Does anyone remember what last Keeneland meet was like???How could any serious horseplayer be willing to get excited about the meet?  I\'ve decided to take the money I would have used to play Keeneland..and head to atlantic city to play the penny slots.  Playing that surface is like playing a slot machine.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richiebee

I\'ll be there live and in person to witness some serious racing. No Md Clm NY Breds or fields of 4-5 horses. I do see a six horse field in R1 Sat but what you gonna do except skip it.

I don\'t know APny so he/she is entitled to his/her opinion, but I am in the camp that feels Kee and Syn-th racing is playable, just need to adapt. The figs hold up well, except when the runner changes surfaces for the first time, it\'s harder to gauge how the horse will adapt.

At least we will be seeing some classy racing the next three days in Horse Country.

Richie, call me over the weekend if you get the chance.

Any other TG posters going this weekend?

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Why drive to Atlantic City and waste gas, and add to carbon emissions. Go play Bingo at your local church synagogue or club.

In the meantime I will be hearing the players around me yelling cha ching!!

NC Tony

[richiebee]

APny:

I am not a huge proponent of synthetic surfaces.

While watching CNBC this week one of the correspondents mentioned that the
prohibition against short selling the stock of certain financial concerns
was a knee jerk reaction which might have taken some of the stability out of
world markets.

I thought of synthetic surfaces: I have always thought that the implementation
of synthetic surfaces was a knee jerk reaction to problems caused by the
dilution of the equine gene pool. Using CNBC terms rather loosely and probably
improperly, the fact that some of the races at Breeders Cup this year will be
run on the Pro Ride (the name of this surface always makes me think of \"Bad
Dancin\' Elaine\") will add some \"volatility\" to the BC proceedings.

Back to Keeneland. First, some of the good racing on Keeneland\'s Saturday card
will be conducted on the turf. Second, I am going to support Keeneland because
they have put together an excellent card. Call it a \"buycott\", but I will gladly
deal with some surface uncertainty and bet on a quality card rather than watch
NYRA trot out a card full of maidens, state breds and turf sprinters, and the
inevitable maiden state bred turf sprint.

I do not know what the statistic would be but it would be fascinating to know
what percentage of all thoroughbred (non-turf) races run in the US in 2007-2008
were run over synthetic surfaces. If this number is less than say 45%, then
running the BC over a synthetic surface (for 2 straight years) is a travesty.

That being said, I will not let the questionable decision- making of the people
responsible for administering Racing deprive me of the enjoyment of the BC. I
plan on enjoying the days leading up to the BC, embracing the Chaos, then
complaining like hell about the surface if I crap out and having P-Dub offer me
some cheese to go along with my whine.

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> That being said, I will not let the questionable
> decision- making of the people
> responsible for administering Racing deprive me of
> the enjoyment of the BC. I
> plan on enjoying the days leading up to the BC,
> embracing the Chaos, then
> complaining like hell about the surface if I crap
> out and having P-Dub offer me
> some cheese to go along with my whine.

Richie,

If you are sporting enough to play the BC even though its on Pro Ride, thats good enough for me. I hate the stuff too but I just deal with it.  Its the people that will ignore it completely that baffle me. Kinda like not watching the Playoffs because the Twins/Rays play in a dome. Its not real baseball, but enjoyable nonetheless.

I\'m using up all of my bitching right now on Al Davis.  You guys are safe around here for awhile.  Even my boy Silver Charm.

[APny]

I don\'t not play all synthetic surfaces....I just feel like Keenelands surface last year produced way too many questionable winners and left me scratching my head more often than not...and if I recall from posts on this board I wasn\'t the only one.  The turf racing I\'ll play.  The poly...I\'ll wait to see.

[miff]

Given Poly\'s usual unkindness to early speed(if thats how the surface plays this meet), Kee should be the perfect place to use TG since some of the wide  running horses with lofty figures fit that tracks winning profile.


Mike

[Michael D.]

APny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Does anyone remember what last Keeneland meet was
> like???

yes. profitable at times and difficult at times - just like any other race track (but with much better cards). how did you like Sar and Bel when you couldn\'t even handicap the races because the weather was sure ruin the card?

> How could any serious horseplayer be
> willing to get excited about the meet?  

because the poly has played like turf. it\'s 6 to 10 outstanding turf races every day. who doesn\'t like 6 to 10 outstanding turf races?

> I\'ve
> decided to take the money I would have used to
> play Keeneland..and head to atlantic city to play
> the penny slots.

the old Kee dirt course sucked. it was the worst horse racing I have ever witnessed.

the only problem I have with synth racing is the Cal mandate, and the BC being held at SA. let one or two of those tracks return to dirt, and I am very happy. we still have dirt at Bel, Sar, Aqu, GP, Crc, OP, LaD, Pim, Del, and CD. that is more than enough dirt racing. let\'s go with both for another 5 years, then come to a thoughtful conclusion as to which direction is best for the track operators, the bettors, and the horses.

[TGJB]

Richie-- that Keeneland is able to put up those type of cards goes to the question of boutique meets I mentioned yesterday. If you run a short meet you can do that.

I\'m with Michael. I don\'t love poly-- Del Mar has always been my best track, but I truly got my ass kicked out there this summer, one winning day in 11. But anything-- ANYTHING-- is better than that old Keeneland track. I took myself off doing the analysis because I knew I had absolutely no shot. Angle guys (Mall) were winning the money I lost.

[BitPlayer]

The quality of the Keeneland meet is a function not only of its brevity, but also of the money that flows from the auction company into purses.  I agree with your point in another thread that fewer races is the way that racing has to be headed, but the interesting question is which tracks and meets will survive.

For the last half of the meet (after the rains), Saratoga\'s all-sources handle was still (according to my math) down 7% from 2007, although on-track handle was roughly flat.  Del Mar was down 7% for the meet.  In contrast, Arlington was down only 3% (despite having lost TVG coverage), and Monmouth was up.  Although it\'s hard to weed out the effects of the economy, my take is that some of the traditional boutique meets that aren\'t subsidized from other sources (e.g., slots and Keeneland\'s auctions) are gradually going to spiral downward, as top-quality horses go elsewhere (like Pennsylvania and Delaware) to find better purses, and the bettors and stakes gradings follow the horses.

I think the ADW\'s may also have a role in deciding who thrives.  My guess is that Arlington benefited from TrackNet bettors who were cut off from internet wagering on Del Mar and shifted some of those dollars to Arlington.  Monmouth\'s increase was also fueled by off-track sources.  If the dispute between ADW\'s and horsemen continues, it will be interesting to see how successfully the ADW\'s can shift wagering dollars to the signals they continue to receive.

[miff]

The current financial mess, which is sure to touch everyone, may just be the tipping point where some closures/consolidations will happen in the game. It will also be a good time for the \"regulars\" in the game to get the empty suits to listen more closely.


Mike

[richiebee]

Bit:

Can you honestly say that slots money has improved the quality of Racing at
Delaware Park and Philadelphia Park? I do not monitor these venues daily but it
appears that Delaware runs a lot of short fields and there are still a lot of
dirt cheap races at Philly.

Delaware might benefit if Racing dies in Maryland, and both Delaware and Philly
would benefit from not competing directly against each other.

[BitPlayer]

Richiebee –

I can\'t prove it with anything other than anecdotal evidence, but, yes, that\'s what I think.  I don\'t follow those circuits either, but I recently read somewhere that Philly Park\'s purses have roughly doubled since slots were added.  Racing is a traditionalist\'s game, so change happens slowly, but trainers have to make a living and eventually they will migrate (or ship) to where the money is and bring their owners\' quality stock with them.

Why is Larry Jones training in Delaware?  Why are so many horses from Delaware appearing in NY stakes races?  Why did Proud Spell run in the Cotillion rather than the Gazelle?  Why did upstart Presque Isle Downs attract Wild Gams, Miss Macy Sue, and Dream Rush?  And don\'t just think about Pennsylvania and Delaware.  What about the effect of Instant Racing on Oaklawn?