Early thoughts on the filly and mare sprint

[covelj70]

I am trying to go through each race pretty methodically this week with the understanding that the final entries aren\'t decided yet and post will be very important.  That said, I wanted to solicit some early thoughts on the filly and mare sprint.

Bottom-line for me is that I need someone to talk me down off of Indian Blessing.  I can\'t start racing\'s greatest weekend by playing chalk but I think she towers over this field and she at least has some experience over poly (though obviously not pro ride) and she ran a number that was very consistent with her pattern at the time so I don\'t think we can rely on the idea that she won\'t take to the poly.

I know that the longer a horse runs the kind of ridiculous numbers that she has been putting up, the more likely they are to react each time but there\'s no guarentee that this will be the time she reacts and she could bounce a good bit and still win this thing I fear.

Some of the other fast ones like Indyanne are going to get roasted up front in what looks like an inevitable speed dual and the only other filly who can stalk/close and is in the same ballpark numbers-wise is Intangroo and she looks very likely to bounce to me based on her pattern.

I like Miraculous Miss a little bit and I think Magnificence still has a big one left in her and those two have the right style to win this but those two are also quite short numbers wise.

I know that Zenattya is getting all of the attention for the Friday races and she clearly deserves alot but to me, Indian Blessing looks like a more likely winner than Zenayatta on Friday.

Someone help talk me down off this chalky ledge, please!

[marcus]

Indyanne seems interesting imo at aprx 12-1 +up  though potential pace scenario for that race is tough to figure working favorably for her  -  we\'ll certainly see how pro-ride is playing for the closers at that time of day . Zatfig came from off the pace before and has a decent Synth TGI ...

[miff]

Cov,

Everyone gets ahead of themselves too far before big race days.With very big fields, the post position draw is critical. In the case of Indian Bleesing, I see her figs tower over and her spacing is good enough. If she draws the rail and has speed right next to her,she could be vulnerable from a trip standpoint.

I am not as certain as you that Indian Blessing,or any BC participants,will run their normal dirt figs on that new surface.


Mike

[Michael D.]

Zaftig looks interesting. she\'s better suited for a mile (or longer), but she ranged up alongside IB without much urging in the Acorn. don\'t like the long layoff, but Jerkens does well enough 90+ days, and they don\'t run this exceptional filly in this spot unless she\'s ready. fits on figures, and she gets the 3 lbs. could be that she\'s just not quick enough to get the job done here, but 8-1 covers the risk.

I also like Ventura to explode through the lane. not thrilled with the 4-1 ml though.

IB has every right to explode again. the best case against her involves a pro-ride surface that is playing on the heavy side, and I\'m not sure we\'re going to get that. 2-1 looks fair.

[APny]

I\'ve bet against Indian Blessing the past couple times she\'s raced hoping she may bounce but the more I watch her the more I realize this horse is a superstar.  You could try to make excuses and search for something but I agree that this horse is the most likely to win on BC Day.  The horse is proven on dirt and poly.  Most of the others are too slow...Intagaroo looks to prefer reg dirt and Indyanne could bounce and looks like shes headed to a fatal duel up front.  I will use Zaftig and Miraculous Miss underneath because they\'re the only ones to me that appear fast enough and could pop a big number.  This looks like one of the easier of the races of the day from a handicapping standpoint.  There are a lot of slow horses in here.

[headstr8ner]

My take on this race is as follows; Dream Rush out front with early speed fractions. Indian Blessing and Indyanne head to head dueling to see who will make move to pass front runner. Leaving race for Zaftig to close fast. Caveat about  Zaftig is that she needs a work on track to see if she handles it and comes back OK. Many first time all weather track horses come back muscle sore for a couple of days. Psalm, the euro horse, has some interesting \"stalking\" races in somewhat classy turf races. She may be a good exotic bet. I think the race will finish with Zaftig by a neck over Indian Blessing

[MonmouthGuy]

I will not attempt to talk you off the chalky ledge with race analysis, as I agree with Marcus and Michael D. on Zaftig.

However,by way of anecdote, what I will say is that going into last year\'s Filly and Mare Sprint, looking at the figs, I did not think there was a more likely winner either day on the card at Monmouth than La Traviata. I spent the week volunteering at Monmouth and after listening to her connections and the general talk around the track by the \"experts\", the consensus was that 2-1 on La Tra would be considered a felony in some jurisdictions.

I spent the rest of the weekend trying to make it back and didn\'t get even until the Classic.

[headstr8ner]

Zaftig had bullet work at SA this morn in 1:11.40. I guess she likes the surface. Now we need to wait to see if she comes back without muscle soreness. If she is OK in two days she beats Indian Blessing on Friday.

[covelj70]

Problem with Zaftig is that Indian Blessing has exploded (in terms of TG numbers) since Zaftig beat her in the Acorn.  

Zaftig is still 3 points or so light of Indian Blessing with Indian Blessing\'s current form.

IB is going to bounce to the moon one of these times, I just can\'t feel all that confident that this is the time and take a chance on a filly, off a long layoff that has never run on the surface that is 3 points slower on the TGs.

Thanks for the thoughts.

[mlnolan00]

Zaftig did NOT look good in her workout, even though it was a bullet.  But I find it hard to ever disregard anyone who is a Jerkins.
My thoughts are with Jimmy, though, as I read Allen was in the hospital for heart related monitoring.

Supposedly Intagaroo had a great work on Sunday.  She doesn\'t quite seem fast enough, but she LOVES 7F and that\'s always dangerous.

[Michael D.]

mlnolan00 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Zaftig did NOT look good in her workout, even
> though it was a bullet.  


where did you hear this?

[mlnolan00]

I saw it at the beginning of the BC show on HRTV yesterday morning.  I believe if you go to the BC website you can see a replay of the episode.  It was right at the beginning.

The exercise rider was getting really busy on her, and she was clearly getting tired at the end.  But then again she hasn\'t raced since the summer so I guess she has the right to get tired, but she didn\'t look the way I like my horses coming into a big race.

Then again, maybe she\'s just lazy in the am.  Horses can deceive.  We thought our horse would run HUGE in the OK Derby yesterday based on his figs, but he ran like a donkey...

[P-Dub]

I\'m keying Indian Blessing on top and will follow JBs advice with longshots underneath. They will be: Magnificience, Tiz Elemental, Miraculous Miss.

No price if Ventura or Intangaroo hit the board underneath. These 3 horses have the right running style if the pace gets too hot, have decent but not great numbers, and the surface makes the race a question mark. Will include Zaftig too.

Indian Blessing looks like a clearcut winner. Anything close to the ML is a bargain.

[Flighted Iron]

Covelj70,

  Maybe a magnificent(ce)-Bounce exacta.

 Respectfully,
   mjs

[MonmouthGuy]

Looking at the Race Shapes, with Indyanne out, is it possible that when Dream Rush clears the field, she can set reasonable enough fractions up front that when Indian Blessing goes by, she has enough left to hold off the rest of the field at a decent price as a key in the 2 slot?