Early Returns on Pro-Ride (and the seminar)

[jimbo66]

Ok,

Silver Charm is the good sport, as he cashed no tickets, but is still happy.

I guess I will be the sore loser.  

I was disappointed with both the racing and frankly, one of the points made in the seminar.  I bought the seminar because as somebody who doesn\'t bet much on synthetic track I was hoping for an angle on how dirt figures were holding up on the pro-ride.  One of the thesis statements made by TG in the beginning of the seminar was that dirt horses were running their figures on Pro-Ride.  Granted, there was a \"buyer beware\" warning about those horses being from Fairplex.  

Boy, was that statement ruinous to follow today.

Three pro-ride BC races.  All won by underlaid, unbettable horses if you are using TG.  All three had moderate TG figures, but showed an affinity.  All were much shorter prices than you could accept.  All won for fun.  Ventura at 5-2, wins by 6 with maybe one figure that could fit.  Stardom Bound was competitive, but had a wide post, lost ground and won for fun as well.  And then Zenyatta, slower than several others in the race, also winning for fun, with a wide sweeping move.  The other horse that worked well on pro-ride, cocoa beach, also tough to use on TG, runs 2nd.

Oh well.  The big question is what to do about it tomorrow.  Not sure yet, as today is just fully sinking in.

Ideas?

[Silver Charm]

The Calif based horses were strong today. Speed was NOT Golden on the Turf Course as we had heard from others.

The Seminar.last year was weak on Friday and killed it on Sat.

I probably played a couple today that were a little over the top and tried to beat a couple short priced favs or used them lightly on top.

The three Pro-Ride runs were wide closing sweepers.

Whatever happened to speed on the rail The Great Race Place?

[MonmouthGuy]

Two years in a row \"the most likely winner\" of a Breeders Cup race has bit the dust in the Filly and Mare Sprint.

Nice call on Forever Together, although the \"no sweater\" discussion almost scared me away.  Would have been even nicer if Wait a While had held on for second, or Sealy Hill had received a mention in the Seminar.


As for what I learned today:  On pro-ride, \"6 wide\" is the new ground saving trip.  Any low-odds horse that I was thinking of tossing because of a potential wide trip, I will now key.

For example, I fully expect Street Boss to circle the field with his patented 7 wide move and win going away.

[congaree1]

Why buy sheets and the seminar? IMO it makes zero sense. Indian Blessing would have beat Ventura if they ran at Belmont. Numbers have to be adjusted on this shit, period.

[flushedstraight]

congaree1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Why buy sheets and the seminar? IMO it makes zero
> sense. Indian Blessing would have beat Ventura if
> they ran at Belmont. Numbers have to be adjusted
> on this @#$%&, period.


- Frankel clearly stated that Ventura would not have been entered if race was on dirt

- there are 4 turf races on Sat; that\'s reason enough to buy the sheets, unless you\'re a $2 bettor or you\'re gonna bet the Euros anyway regardless of figs

- If you\'re a value player, the few races Friday were too small a sample to reach any conclusions regarding playing the synthetic BC races.

- It is clearly stated by TG that there are extra variables to consider this year. That means pure number power is a diminished factor.

- Before it\'s all over, I\'d expect the tote to blow up in at least one of these pro-ride races and I\'ll be playing that way for better or worse. There doesn\'t appear to be any Zenyattas on today\'s card.


May the horse be with you.

[Uncle Buck]

The tote blow up you speak of Flushed Straight is going to happen in the turf sprint down the hill. This will be a totally CRAZY race IMO. My early day success this fine Saturday hinges on how well Rouse the Cat runs in the second. He is my key to the first half of the card. Fingers are crossed! My late strategy is to key Street Boss in the 7th in multi-race bets and toss Curlin in the Classic. Good luck today everyone.

[JEB]

i was zenyatta not running her race away from hitting the pick-3. Of course, she was awesome. I agree that all it takes is one big hit and it makes the seminar successful for any value player. Any handicapper that puts their analysis out there and actually takes a stand will have good hits and bad misses.

I like several of the races today and i think there are a lot of opportunities to hit a big one. Not sure what to do in the sprint though. From the seminar, is midnight lute a single?

[jimbo66]

Flushed,

Appreciate your counsel not to over-react to a small sample, and in most cases I would agree.  However, when the small sample is the best and fastest horses in racing, it adds some credibility to the small sample.

As stated on this board by several BEFORE yesterday, it SHOULD have been one of the best distaff races of all time with those entered yesterday.  I don\'t need any more evidence than seeing how ordinary Ginger Punch, Hysterical Lady and Music Note.  If I did, I could watch how the ordinary the fastest 3 year old filly of all time looked yesterday (Indian Blessing).  

It is too late to do anything about this now, but I again ask Jerry and Allan and the Thorograph team to give some thought leadership to how we correlate the synthetic to dirt numbers.  Right now, your customers are guessing, some better than others.  You guys have the database, Run some analysis on teh relative scales.  It is obvious to me that the numbers don\'t correlate.  What seem to be inferior numbers on synthetic are actually faster than what seem to be faster dirt numbers.  And it isn\'t JUST a horse\'s ability on the synthetic, I believe the scale is the problem.

Does anybody really think that it was only YESTERDAY that Zenyatta popped a big figure and she really was mediocre before that race?  Nope.  Same thing for Stardom Bound.  Might be less obvious, but even Ventura is strange.  Did Indian Blessing bounce 8 points, or did Ventura run a negative 5?

Best of luck to everybody today.

[P-Dub]

Agree about the main track, it was tough for TG users.

But if I\'ve said it once, I\'ll say it again. TG makes the best turf numbers around.  Period.

If you didn\'t have Forever Together in a major way yesterday,  you shouldn\'t be using this product. That horse was a gift at 9/2 and should have more than made up for any difficulties you may have been having with the main track.

Also, has anybody seen a worse favorite than Black Mamba yesterday??  A complete toss if you looked at TG.  No faster than several at the weights and he wrong distance for her. Another turf race that went well.

As far as turf races today,  the turf sprint looks crazy. Hero\'s Reward and Rouse The Cat look decent to me.

Kip Deville is my play in the Mile.

Skipadate in the Juv Turf but who knows with these 2 yos.Gotta use Donativum too.

Out of Control in the Turf. Have to use Soldier of Fortune and Winchester.

Good luck all.

[miff]

Paul,

This sucker tossed Forever Together off the ship, short space,distance,and her previous bounce off a top. singled Black Momba having seen her race and beat much better and won at mile twice.


Mike

[Michael D.]

ideas? well Jim, don\'t plan on figuring out this p-r until next year\'s BC. bet small until you hit one. let\'s see how today goes before reaching any conclusions.


Dirt Mile - I like Lewis Michael. been on the rail 5 of his last 9 turns, and draws the 1 hole in the big field. has 0\'s over three different synthetic surfaces. loves the mile distance, and appears to have been pointed towards this race all year. I also think one of the two sons of Hepatica is going to run a new top. not sure which one, but I will use Slew\'s Tiznow at a price. \'4\' top on dirt last year, and a decent race 1st out for ONeill. talented runner might be zeroing in on a \'0\' (Tiz runners improve 4 points from 2 to 3). gets 4 lbs, but will probably give that up in ground from post 9.

Turf Mile - like Kip D. the 2 hole is huge, and last is better than it looks. save with the filly.

Juvy - my original pick was Midshipman. I got off him after the awful draw, but I\'m back on. the colt has been within a few lengths of :46 paces, so Garrett should be able to work out a decent trip.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- the things I would add now that I have seen yesterday\'s results are, turf horses ran very well over Pro-Ride (Ventura and the McPeek filly), which I didn\'t have a feel for and didn\'t therefore discuss in the seminar, and I\'ll be watching horses on the rail in the first few races. The best source for workout info is www.nationalturf.com, costs you $10 for the day.

[phil123]

They just had a feature on the track on ESPN.  THAT looks nothing like a dirt surface.  They can say it is majority (what was it...70%?) dirt.  But it looks far more like grass than dirt.  Wow.  Quite eye opening seeing it up close.

[ronwar]

What do you make of his comments on the Student Council work on 10/13?  Makes me want to toss.

[TGJB]

It\'s a concern, but even if I wasn\'t involved I wouldn\'t toss the second fastest horse, who has run well over poly and been there a while.