BC Figures, Euro study

[TGJB]

Figures are now up in ROTW for the BC races and other races on SA 10/24-25, all 242 pages of them.

We also decided to do a study of the numbers of the Europeans who ran in the BC. We\'re going to do a broader study (actual several ones, including no lasix there/no lasix here) on the entire data base, but this is pretty interesting.

[TGAB]

We are going to leave the BC data w/TG final figures up for a while. There will not be a ROTW this week. We\'ll return with a new one next weekend.

[Michael D.]

no edge in either 12f race, and that was disappointing.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

Can you explain?  don\'t understand your comment.

Jerry,

80% paired or ran a new top.  Which is high.  Not exactly sure how high.  What do you think that is telling you, other than the obvious \"the Euros ran well\" on the poly and that the turf form carried well to poly. (that second point is pretty important)

[TGJB]

Given the large number of young horses and first lasix\'s (?)-- 4 of which are not marked, the O\'Briens-- I think it looks right. We\'re going to see more when we do a larger study of all the Europeans that ran here over a long period.

Regardless, they can\'t be off more than a point under any circumstances. And if you did make those Euro figures a point faster, that study would be really skewed the other way-- a very high percentage of horses would get off races. With grass stake horses and so many young ones, my guess is that the breakout would be about the same with American horses. We\'ll do that as a control when we do the big study.

I didn\'t really break it down, but several 2yos ran new tops, especially in the grass races, I don\'t know what the relative percentages American/Euro were (and again, there\'s lasix). Of those 4 and up, the only two that ran new tops were the Marathon winner (first lasix, and he ran better than he did in Europe in anybody\'s estimation), and Eagle Mountain, who was second time 4yo following what was obviously a prep at a distance too short for him.

And yeah, it played like grass.

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> Can you explain?  don\'t understand your comment.


no edge in having the TG figures. you don\'t even consider the Marathon winner, and Jerry went four deep in the Turf and did not mention the top two finishers. big new tops for all three.

[HP]

Interesting that most of the biggest jump ups came on turf.  Except for Muhannak.  Need to see more to say anything where I could make a bigger fool of myself...

[richiebee]

Some other observations, perhaps borne out by the Figs--

1) The European raced/ trained horse is superior

2) The European horsemen/women are superior

3) The European horses were not coping with steroid withdrawal (see Curlin,
   Kip D) (beyond surface issues, I would be interested to hear someone
   superimpose Curlin\'s final 3 races against the stages of his steroid    
   withdrawal)

In support of 1)- 3) above:

Juvie Turf: Euros 1-2, drawing away from field

Turf Mile: Euro 3YO filly draws away from arguably America\'s best miler

Turf Classic: American turfers no factor

Classic: Euros 1-2 and drawing off

What does it all mean?

(Andre Fabre has a coupled first time NA entry in tomorrows 12f LI Hcp at Aqu).
More Euro dominance or a bet against on a firm tight turned course?

BC Educational Experience: Princess Haya of Jordan is King Hussein\'s daughter,
not his widow as I thought. She is married to Sheik Mo. According to the website
of the Royal Family, this talented award winning equestrienne is Sheik
Mo\'s \"junior\" wife. Sheik Mo also has a \"senior\" wife. These guys think of
everything.

[TGJB]

Richie--

1-- the European grass horses were superior to American dirt horses over Pro-Ride.

2-- just in terms of figures, it\'s debatable turf to turf. There were only two American horses in this year\'s Turf that had ever run fast enough to be considered top quality HERE, and both were coming off lifetime tops-- we were weak this year.

I won\'t argue with you about the European trainer\'s ability to train up to a specific target and get a top effort.

[Silver Charm]

I\'m not sure if looking at this makes me feel better or worse.

Conduit develops 6 points in 90 days to beat one of my double keys who paired the winners fig and moved forward only two points from a top established 12 months before.

Go Between gets a TU and runs a 2 after a steady diet of 0\'s which ended up being the winning fig in the Classic.

Midnight Lute has a pair of Neg 7\'s on dirt and Neg 5 on Synthetic. Both have gotta be the alltime records so what does that say about him.

Looks like somebody spent $30M on the wrong horse with the bad feet.........

[tmon]

I follow UK racing daily and quite often you find trainers winning the same race 3 out 5 years or 5 out of 7 years.

[tmon]

You\'ll be \"happy\" to know that SIR MICHAEL STOUTE stable had a slow summer and started getting hot a few weeks before the Breeders Cup. He\'s one of the best trainers in the UK. and this year overall he\'s at a 20% winning rate.

[Flighted Iron]

Tmon,

 Sounds similar to Woody Stephens and his 5 pack at Big Sandy.


Respectfully,
mjs

[Rick B.]

I\'ll be filing this little bon mot away for next year. Thanks!

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

You are the man with the database, but I have to tell you, I would be really really surprised if what you are saying about the american horses as the control group is true.  I don\'t think 80% pair or run tops in the BC.  (maybe I am missing your point, but if that is your point, I can\'t believe that to be true, so I look forward to the large study)