BC Figures, Euro study

[HP]

1 - SA is a firm tight turned course, isn\'t it?  

2 - One wife is enough.

[SoCalMan2]

Anybody notice the figure this horse ran while finishing 8th?  He matched the winner who everybody raved about and ran faster than a lot of the horses that finished ahead of him. I need to see a replay before passing judgement, but it looks like Baze may have butchered this one.

[richiebee]

HP:

Yes to both.

The more I look, the Long Island is a good betting race.

The Fabre entry first time NA. A filly who was a Big Bombowitz put over
in the ROTW from a few weeks ago. A NYB slow rat who in her last 2 starts
ran against the eventual BC FM 1-2 finishers...

...and a filly who is arguably second fastest in the race off of her TGs who
should like the distance and be double digit odds.

[marcus]

At first glance it seems like a lot more North American runners X\'d on the turf  ( than did their European counterparts ) -  Not exactly sure of the percentages but imo it\'s more than just happenstance or coincidence ...

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I\'m talking about turf stake horses only, all ages, including 2yos. In this case a third of the grass races were for 2yos (more than usual) and a lot of the Europeans were first lasix. My guess is that it would come up about 60-65% with American stake horses if a third were 2yos, slightly lower with a normal age distribution. Lots of paired tops on grass.

[smalltimer]

JB,
For the past several years, I\'ve conducted a post BC analysis similar to this one on eurorunners, but I include additional data.
For example, if you look at the animals who ran their last race in Great Britain you find the following:  13 horses with 7 new tops and 6 paired.  This year was very reminiscent of past years;

Those 8 horses with their previous out in France included 6 who paired, 1 which was off and 1 x;

Those 4 horses with their previous out in Ireland included 1 new top, 2 which were off and 1 x;

The 2 animals from Ireland (Pursuit of Glory and Paddy The Pro) ran very poorly on the move from Dundalk (Ire) Polytrack to Pro Ride.  However, Muhannak won nicely making the same move, the clear indicator of Chester House as an outstanding Pro Ride sire was probably the main reason;

Of the 9 animals on your eurorunner sheet, 7 of them 77.7% came in after having their previous race in Great Britain, at any rate, 13 runners 7 new tops and 6 that paired is outstanding;

There are 17 horses on your eurorunner sheet, of those horses moving turf to turf (regardless of country) they showed 5 with new top, 9 that paired, 2 which were off, and 1 with an x;

I looked at the horses that had a previous out in October and ran back abut 3 weeks later and came up with 16 horses, 5 with a new top, 8 that paired, 3 which were off;

Of the 11 horses with their last out being in either September or coming off a layoff, 5 had a new top, 4 paired, and there were 2 x\'s;

At any rate, I\'m continuing to break this down to run a comparison to prior years which I\'ve done annually.

[TGJB]

Try it with first lasix. Keep in mind it\'s not marked on the Aidan O\'Brien horses.

[smalltimer]

My Saturday program shows US Ranger and Henrythenavigator running WITH Lasix;
Westphalia, Soldier of Fortune, Red Rock Canyon and Duke of Marmalade running WITHOUT Lasix.
 

US Ranger going Turf to Turf with Lasix finished off;
Westphalia going Turf to Turf with Lasix paired;
Soldier of Fortune and Red Rock Canyon Turf to Turf both paired;
Duke of Marmalade moving Turf to Pro Ride paired.
Henrythenavigator moving Turf to Pro Ride with Lasix a new top.

Six (6) horses, 1 new top, 4 paired and 1 off.
Obviously the only horse with a new top was Henry moving Turf to Pro Ride.

That\'s about it.  I found the bloodlines to be much more compelling in the run up to the Cup.

[TGJB]

It was announced after the races had been run that the O\'Brien horses (the 4 you mentioned) had in fact been treated with lasix. He was fined only $2,500, and the purse money was NOT redistributed.

[smalltimer]

That\'s unconscionable by the track.  At the very MINIMUM the on-site crowd as well as the simulcast people should have been alerted through screen streamers, live announcements, etc.  No wonder people continue to flock away from this sport.
I\'m sure I speak for lots of people when I say I consider 1st Lasix, and even a first time equipment change to really impact how I might play a race.
What would the reaction have been had 2-3 of these horses won and then people found out?
To be honest, the Euro trainers that I have much regard for when they are adding the juice is Gosden, Stack, Deroyer-Dupree, BJ Meehan, Noseda, and even Saaed Bin Suroor.  These are the guys who have really lit it up on occassion.  My experience with O\'Brien has been the Lasix hasn\'t greatly improved his animals, but he has such great stock, he\'s always dangerous.  
One more time JB, I\'m gonna try to talk you into separating the artificial surfaces.  I\'m convinced, the FIRST company to do so will CONTROL a huge percentage of the data being purchased in this industry.  The FIRST company to do this will be operating with a huge advantage.  As outstanding as most of your
data is, you could make it even better.  My apologies again.

[TGJB]

We\'ve been waiting until there is a large enough sampling, we might do something over the winter. It will be for trainers and sires only, not enough room for that with siblings.

[SoCalMan2]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It was announced after the races had been run that
> the O\'Brien horses (the 4 you mentioned) had in
> fact been treated with lasix. He was fined only
> $2,500, and the purse money was NOT redistributed.

This seems completely insane to me and why hasn\'t this been more widely reported or grasped upon?  Where is Crist on this?  I would assume that if a horse runs on medication different than reported in the program or publicly announced at the track prior to the race, the horse is DQ\'ed and the purse money redistributed.  What happens at California tracks if a horse runs on Lasix when it is reported it is not running on Lasix?  I would sure hope DQ.  What happens if the horse runs on a dosage of Bute that is higher than the permissible level?  Why is this different?

To me, if what TGJB is reporting is true, then this is a complete outrage.  If O\'Brien is guilty of this (running his horses on Lasix but not telling the proper authorities beforehand) then his fine should be a ton worse than such a wrist slapping.  To me, if O\'Brien did this, it is far worse than what Biancone was forced to miss a Breeders\' Cup for.  I would say the proper response should be that purse money is redistributed AND O\'Brien cannot enter any horses in next year\'s Breeder\'s Cup.  

If people think this behavior is okay, what stops him year after year in the future bringing horses over, not saying anything and then keeping inside who is getting lasix and who is not?  Don\'t people agree that lasix treatment is valuable and important information that the bettors are entitled to?  What stops any trainer from keeping to himself the first lasix information on all his horses?  If the rule is in fact like this, what makes anybody think they are going to get accurate first lasix information on any foreign horse coming to the U.S.?

[miff]

So Cal,

It was known, but not widely reported in the normal official manner. I knew it but don\'t recall if it was TVG  or a friend calling to tell me.

Forgetting Crist for a moment, where is the NTRA empty suit Wal-dope? The players champion? Again, we see that the clueless empty suits do not realize the amount of money being wagered on a \"first time lasix\" user.Salt of the earth gambling/racing stuff is so far from their minds/knowledge that it\'s painful.

The fines should been stiffer and all who had a hand in this not being officially reported should at least have to defend why they should not be termi nated from their jobs.

Mike

[sighthound]

Not reporting to the gambling public first-time lasix use should result in heads rolling all along the line.

This incident should produce a huge scream of protest and outrage from the Horseplayers Association and public handicappers.

Now is the time for American horseplayers to DEMAND complete accuracy and timely publication of:

- Drug reporting (all drugs on-off: lasix, adjunct, NSAID being used on race day)

- Equipment changes (blinkers, winkers, on or off; bandages on or off; bitting changes)

- Shoe changes, shoe characteristics.

- Style of riding - race tactics changes (\"trainer announces Speedy will be ridden more forward, or more under cover, if possible this race\")

Handicappers need this information far, far more than the popular but reality-based non-issue of \"steroids on or off\".

[miff]

\"Style of riding - race tactics changes (\"trainer announces Speedy will be ridden more forward, or more under cover, if possible this race\")


Sight,

Can\'t even get these a--holes to report the traditional stuff, can you imagine hearing over the Racetracks Public Address System:

\"Number five is a dead send today\"



Mike