Old Fashioned

[covelj70]

I am very anxious to see how Larry Jones and Porter handle Old Fashioned on the Derby Trail.

The horse is clearly a freak coming out running 1\'s in his first two races and then running another big number on Sat in the Remsen without being asked too much (JB, maybe a pair?).  Obiviously given the way he ran and the breeding here, 1 1/4 shouldn\'t be a problem.

Now, he definitely had things all his own way with uncontested very soft fractions and the quality of the field was very weak but he still finished more than a full second faster than the girls even though he wasn\'t asked down the stretch (I don\'t believe they run much faster when they are asked though anyway).

However, given how much of a public fleecing these two took for Eight Belles and given that this is another Unbridled Song with all of the questions about the soundness of that line, I will be very anxious to see if they try to baby the horse into the Derby or if they pursue a traditional 3 prep campaign with the horse.

Anyone have any thoughts?

[Halo Fire]

Is Larry Jones retiring?

[miff]

Cov,

Thought Jones was quitting at years end? Nice horse, runs fast but has never been hooked.OF\'s first TG 1 is very generous compared to other data which had him in the TG 4 range, first start.Assuming he stays sound, and if he\'s not one dimensional speed(going long) he\'s obviously looks to be a top contender.

Remember, Sheik Mo has taken the other two top contenders to the desert and that has not worked out too well in years past.

Guess you saw that maiden, Quality Road, win very impressively and fast on Sat in his 1st start creating a buzz with the horsemen.


Mike

[covelj70]

I did see that Qulaity Road, very impressive.  I still can\'t decide what I think about the Elusive Quality\'s going 1 1/4.  I know that Elusive Quality has thrown several ery notable ones with the ability to get that distance (with Raven\'s Pass being the most recent obviously) but I still think of him as throwing better milers.  I may have to revisit this opinion before it costs me anymore money.

[jma11473]

Just to address the retirement issue, Jones has said he\'ll retire after next year\'s Breeders Cup.

[Uncle Buck]

I\'m on Well Positioned\'s band wagon. He crushed some really nice horses by 14 lenghts at the big A 11/22. Being an Awesome Again - I doubt he\'ll have any soundness issues and as we all know it\'s a LONG six months ahead getting them to the gate May 2nd. I\'m pretty sure this one will end up wearing the IEAH stars and stripes ala BB

[TGJB]

I would say that subsequent events have made that figure look pretty good.

You have, however, given the explanation for something Alan and I were scratching our heads about-- how he went off 3/2 in a nw1x at Delaware second time out, instead of 1/5. He won by 15.

[mlnolan00]

Well Positioned has been shopped around in the $4 million range.  Not sure if there have been any takers yet.

[covelj70]

I know this comes up every year but the amount of money that gets thrown around to buy these 2 year olds that run huge in their first start is simply shocking to me.

JB knew about this situation that I was involved with last year.  I owned a VERY VERY small piece of a colt that won his 2nd race at Big A running a TG 2 in the process.  We were offered $2.5m pending a vet exam immediately after the race.  Of course we accepted.  Problem is that the horse didn\'t vet as he had a throat issue.

So, of course, the story goes that he won by 10 next out pairing up his 2 in an allowance race and then goes off as the favorite in the Gotham only to finish up the track because his flipped his palate.  The vet then screwed up the ensuing surgery and the horse hasn\'t run since.  He is back in training but I have all but given up on him.

Went from being worth $2.5m to nothing in a heartbeat.  If I owned anymore than a sliver of this thing, I would have been awfully upset.  Ever since War Emblem got bought for $1m right before the Derby, this stuff has spirled out of control.

[miff]

\"I would say that subsequent events have made that figure look pretty good\"


JB,

So you say that he did NOT improve in his second start when he won by 15, only paired that neck sprint win. You are in the minority according all other credible data which shows his second race to be a meaningful forward move.

Mike

[TGJB]

Yes. And evidence (not proof) the first figure is right is the second one being the same. This is especially true since so very few 2yos run that fast.

Let\'s put it this way. If you saw a 2yo that ran a 4 first time out, what chance would you give him of running a 1 next time? If you saw one that ran a 1 first time, even if you think there\'s a good chance he will bounce, at least you know he is one of the very, very few capable of running that fast-- like maybe 3 or 4 in the world.

[miff]

JB,

I do not have the PP\'s for those horse or those days at Delaware but it seems strange to me that a 2yr old maiden runs a TG 1 and only wins by a neck. Who was the second horse in that maiden race and what did he run? Did he run again and win.What fig?


Mike

[TGJB]

Second horse jumped 8 points to a 2, came back and won despite bouncing to a 7. Third horse ran an 8, next time out went forward to a 4. Nothing wrong with the race, and it fits with the day.

[miff]

Ok, thanks

I\'m sure we\'ll be looking at all the performances in the spring.


Mike

[APny]

These real fast horses like Old Fashioned never make it to the derby with a chance.  Some horses develop much earlier than others like this one...by the time the derby comes around others catch up and the ones that ran this fast early are spent.  I would love to be able to bet that this horse DOESN\'T make it to the derby.  There are also questions about how good he really since he hasn\'t been pressured one ounce on the lead.  Also, what magic potion did Larry Jones find over the past year??? Are his horses that good or is there something else???