Betting patterns at Gulfstream

[drbillym]

Has anyone noticed any particular betting patterns at GP?  Starting with the first race on opening day, Wesley Ward\'s horse opened at 4/5 and won paying 9/2.  Ditto for Wild Awake in the 4th today.  Strummer and National Kid on Saturday(TG pick) also.  Opener today Jerkens horse got slammed from 7/2 to 9/5 in last 3 minutes and won by 10.  The \"smart money\" seems to be right quite often so far.  Now in the 6th, going off in 15 minutes, Soldier gal, 12-1 m/l opened 4/.  We\'ll see.  Curious to hear what others have noticed.

[drbillym]

Yes, another one -Soldier Girl opened 4/5 from 12-1 M/L and just won at 5/2.  Is the track oddsmaker off down here?

[jma11473]

It might all be a big coincidence, but you definitely called it in advance. To review, Soldier Girl is bet down early and stays bet down at 5-2. Then during the race Coa has a 2-length lead on a 5-1 shot and loses the irons and has to pull up. The favorite, Choosing, gets the lead, but gets beaten by Soldier Girl in the final strides. So, good call and hope you bet it if you were onto the trend, and otherwise...

[jma11473]

I do think the 12-1ML was bad, but the way the betting and the race went didn\'t exactly help disprove any conspiracy theories...

[drbillym]

Not really suspecting any consiracies.  Actually I boxed the winner with the horse with broken equipment and backed the loser of the two  I am a big David Fawkes fan as a friend of mine has some horses with him.  At this time I will predict that Big Drama gets the roses in May.

[drbillym]

And now in the 8th, an 8-1 M/L opened at 4/5 and won at 5/2.

[EJXD2]

The morning lines have been WAY off in my estimation.

Gulfstream has offered some pretty evenly matched races, so that always makes it tougher, but the lines are not good.

[Ill-bred]

It\'s a lost art. The ML odds have gotten ridiculously sloppy at many tracks.

[jma11473]

I\'m not really a conspiracy guy, but a bunch of morning line betdowns did win in one day, so I can where it might be noticeable.

[EJXD2]

Race 3 on Thursday at Gulfstream.

Pavoratti\'s Soul is 20-to-1 on the morning line and wins for fun at 5-to-1.

EdD

[Rick B.]

Yeah, this is a little different.

I\'m not a conspiracy theorist, and in fact, I am not shy about ridiculing such folks in public...but this is pretty cut and dried, so far.
 
It\'s not \"bet down, run better than expected, sometimes win\" that\'s happening, it\'s \"bet down, win\". Period.
 
Wish we could access the tote system to see where the money is coming from, at what time, and in what increments. What\'s going on at GP right now doesn\'t seem to be the least bit random or coincidental at all, but I\'m stuck with only evidence and no proof.

[Uncle Buck]

It\'s probably Magna executives trying to get back some of that lost stock value:-)

[TGJB]

Anybody break this down by trainer or type of runner (firster etc.)?

[drbillym]

I actually had a good bet on Pavarotti\'s Soul due to receiving the Nov-DEc issue of the new Horse Society Magazine.  Lauren Stich has an article on Hidden Turf Sires, and tabs Perfect Soul as one whose \"runners will be a dozen lengths better on turf than dirt.\"
I don\'t see the smart money there today yet.

[drbillym]

Of the 5 most obvious to me, 3 were maiden claimers, one msw and one a 35,000 clm.  5 different trainers.  None were firsters, but the maiden level makes sense that someone would know if they had an unknown quantity.