There are certainly a large number of two year olds that run huge that never go on and develop into Derby type horses but in terms of Old Fashioned, I think its a much greater risk that he get\'s hurt before the Derby and never gets in as opposed to not being good enough if he gets there.
As JB Will remind us when he does the seminar (is it sad that I am already jonesing about this on Jan 15th?), healthy 3 year old in the spring of their 3 year old season are likely to improve by about 4 points from their 2 year old top. The more they improve from the two year old number, the more likely they are to start moving in the wrong direction before they cycle around again.
Because of this, I usually eliminate any horse from my Derby list that a) hasn\'t run as a two year old, and b) hasn\'t run fast as a two year old. Every once in awhile a freak like Curlin comes along who comes out firing 0\'s and never looks back but he is the definition of the exception to the rule in many ways and even he couldn\'t win the Derby.
Street Sense is an example of what I am talking about in terms of a horse that put up a big 2 year old number that he then ran back to in the Derby (even though he didn\'t replicate it leading up to the DErby which I believe was by trainer design). Old Fashioned\'s Remsen wasn\'t as fast as Street Sense\'s Breeders Cup Juv but it\'s still the same idea in that I think Old Fashioned has the kind of two year old base to build off of that makes him look like the real deal.
As I said in my original post, a million things can go wrong to prevent him from getting there but I think the trainer is handling him better as a result of last year\'s tragedy with Eight Belles and if he gets into the gate, I think 15-1 will look pretty darn good.
Good luck
