Euro Figures-- Jimbo

[TGJB]

Okay, so since the BC we have pulled a lot of sheets and did a bunch of studies, some of which were not apples to apples. We finally did some programming, and came up with the following study. This for 4 yos and older, 2007-8, where the horses finished in the top six in the race measured (to avoid using total non-efforts, which probably wouldn\'t make much difference).

U.S. Turf horses ( sample size 9015)

More than 3 points better        4.26%
1-3 pts better                  13.26
Pair                            48.26
1-3 pts worse                   24.38
more than 3 pts worse            9.84

Euro imports, first start here if on grass (sample size 41)

More than 3 points better        2.44%
1-3 points better               12.20
Pair                            60.98
1-3 pts worse                   14.63
more than 3 pts worse            9.76

Obviously the sample size on the Euros could be bigger, but the results are pretty gratifying, especially when you consider that many of the Euros are making their first start on Lasix. Based on this the Euro figures are not too slow, if anything you could maybe make the case that MORE horses should be running new tops (lasix). But overall, it would be hard for the results to come out any better.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

Thanks to you and the team for taking the time to do the research here.  Agreed that looking at the data, it would suggest consistency and support of the accuracy of the Euro numbers.  

As a gambler though, I have to wonder why the accuracy of the numbers hasn\'t resulted in the ability to come up with the Euro \"jump up\" winners in the BC.  And I don\'t mean just my own ability to do that, because that can just be bad handicapping.  I have bought your analysis as well every year for the past 7 or 8, and you have missed them as well, as well as a number of experienced TG users on this board.  

One reason that comes to mind is that it strikes me as not quite \"apples to apples\" to compare any 4 year old or older running in a turf race, versus the top older horses in the world.  The top older horses in the world, running in BC races, will have very established form, and really IMHO shoulndn\'t really run as many new tops, especially by a wide margin, than standard 4 year olds, who may or may not have clear established form.  

Anyway, it is food for thought.  Thanks again for posting.

[TGJB]

JImbo-- the BC has a couple of different aspects-- horses trying dirt for the first time (some will prefer it, some hate it), the Pro-Ride issue this year. Additionally, some horses are pointed for it, which will result in some new tops. I would also note that most of the new tops have come from younger horses, like the first two in the Classic, and winner of the Turf.