What are we to make of Pioneer of the Nile?

[covelj70]

I don\'t know what to make of Pinoeer of the Nile\'s pattern.  Would love people\'s thoughts.

Even though he won, he took a step backward to a 6 with a \"bi\" last time after the 4 he put up in the BC Juv.

Is he more likely to come back to the 4 or lower given that he has had a bunch of time off and that he is training well or is he likely to keep moving backward with the thought that maybe the 4 in the BC was too much too soon for a young horse and that he ran back too quickly from that big BC effort which is what the \"bi\" and the slight regression in the number could potentially suggest.

There are several in here that are getting weight that could easily run a 6 or better (even before the weight adjustment) so unless Pinoneer of the Nile is coming back to that 4, he\'s very vulnerable at a short price.

What do people think here?

[Caradoc]

One man\'s opinion . . .

I can forgive the 6 in the context of the horse\'s line.  From where he started, getting down to the 4 is a fair amount of development, even if he had never bounced.  A backward move was certainly possible going into the Hollywood Futurity. The magnitude of the bounce was not bad, although his line certainly would be stronger if he had been able to pair the 4.  Also, keep in mind that the 4 was earned on Pro-Ride, and that the 6 was earned on Cushion; perhaps the surface had something to do with the backward move.  In any event, he\'s back on Pro-Ride now, fifteen weeks from the 4, and it is likely he gets back to the 4 tomorrow, maybe even breaks through to a new top.

[covelj70]

Thanks so much for the perspective.  If he does that, I think he wins this thing.

Unreal card at SA tomorrow.  Trying to find some value in the multi-race exoctics as Stardom Bound looks pretty tough in her race.  The race for the older horses is wide open so maybe can catch a price in there.

Thanks again.

[mlnolan00]

What\'s with the blinkers going on I Want Revenge?  His pattern looks fairly strong and he gets 7 lbs from PotN, but the blinkers might be enough to put me off him...why mess with a good thing?

[big18741]

If you watched/bet him in his last race you\'ll know the equipment change was needed.

I Want Revenge ran in spots that entire race.He was dead on the turn-then he took off running-then it looked like he would draw off in the stretch-goofy horse-think he\'ll jog here if the blinkers do what they\'re supposed to.