Scott Lake #2

[nicely nicely]

This one must have had a REAL lot of worms, which they got rid of really quickly.

13 days, to be precise. Which, by the way, eliminates steroids, as far as I know-- too soon for them to work. Sight?

Now personally, I would love to see the TCO2 test on that horse. Anybody know where I can find it?

TGJB

[richiebee]

I wish this graph had created more conversation.

The 13 day turnaround does seem to eliminate many if not all of the LEGAL
veterinary-pharmocological explanations for this kind of improvement.

A bit, bridle or blinker change could certainly have been the cause of some
improvement, and I have said for years (and posted it here) that the public is
not given adequate information when told merely that blinkers are added or
removed.

Very interesting that in her last four races under former trainer Ann Merryman,
Met a Minor had the kind of \"tightness\" in her TG #s usually associated with
turf runners.

In any case, the bettors were not fooled, as Met A Minor, off at odds of 30/1,
12/1, 57/1, 80/1 and 23/1 in her previous starts in the NW1x condition, was off
at 4/5 in her Lake blowout win.

JB, you say you\'d like to see the TCO2 test for this mare. I think it would be
interesting to take a post race sample from the race which she ran for Scott
Lake and compare it to a post race sample (if any exist) from one of her recent
races for Ann Merryman.

Pet Peeve redux/redux/redux.

The TG Trainer Profile: Why can\'t the \"Runs-Based\" and \"TG Figure-Based\"
statistics use the same sample? Here the runs based sample is 12,057 races and
shows trainer Lake winning with 23% of his starters; the TG figure based sample
is from 7,027 races and tells us that 67% of Lake\'s runners in that sample were
\"Off\" or \"X\"

[Boscar Obarra]

Clearly, this mare was just peaking into top form having raced non stop for three years.   I\'ve seen this dozens of times, the 40th start surge.

 Lake must know about it and got on board just in time.

[SoCalMan2]

I do encourage discussion on this.  Who has Scott Lake #3?  Maybe we can establish our wall of shame sheet gallery and TGJB can offer an inducement to people for participating.  For example, if you proffer a candidate who is selected for the wall of shame, you get a credit of the price of the sheets that you bought in finding the candidate applicable to your next purchase?

[firmturf]

My nominee got ruled off for at least 60 days or else I would have bombarded the board with them.

[SoCalMan2]

Any chance just for fun we can get posted the sheet for A One Rocket or whatever that horse was that got some people thrown in jail? Wasn\'t that an IEAH horse?  Anybody remember what I am talking about?  That was a jump up that definitely caused a stir -- a good poster child.  Just trying to get some attention here on the dirty secrets that happen. If these jump up sheets were posted on a wall of shame, then the people in racing who do not want to do anything would have an ever harder time putting their heads in the sand.

[miff]

So Cal,

A One Rocket was a very fast sprinter that had lots of fast figs, from memory.The Feds made a big deal because there was a hint of \"wiseguy\" attached to this supposed betting coup on a 9-5 shot. The small time guys involved with A One Rocket were around New York tracks forever ands were no where near what the feds portrayed.


Mike

[sighthound]

A legal, appropriate and usual dose of steroid certainly helps a horse keep eating, feeling good and running back quickly (that\'s what it\'s supposed to be used for).

I\'ll have to go watch the races to see what, if anything, one can notice (this would be a horse where sharp paddock scrutiny and familiarity with the horse itself could help shed a light).  

The pattern doesn\'t seem to indicate a need for regular routine time off to let the little usual aches and pains that accumulate heal, and that regularity of running in the past also (to me) would seem to rule out that something chronically sore (hocks, etc) was simply taken care of as it should be (legally).  

Good pattern example.

Edit:  Most importantly let\'s see how quickly the horse can run back this time (as it has done that in the past, not unprecedented for this horse that seems to be a relatively sound, hard-knocking and reliable campaigner).   Let\'s see if the horse \"gave it\'s all\" for one run, or not.  And what the next run turns out to be.

[SoCalMan2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So Cal,
>
> A One Rocket was a very fast sprinter that had
> lots of fast figs, from memory.The Feds made a big
> deal because there was a hint of \"wiseguy\"
> attached to this supposed betting coup on a 9-5
> shot. The small time guys involved with A One
> Rocket were around New York tracks forever ands
> were no where near what the feds portrayed.
>
>
> Mike

I do not know the facts about A One Rocket.  Maybe the sheet does not show a suspicious jump up.  If that is the case, I still think it would be healthy for the dialog to see a sheet where people suspected something and the sheet does not bear out the suspicions.

[TGJB]

If someone can tell me the date of the race in question where he was milkshaked we\'ll post the sheet.

[TGAB]

A One Rocket\'s Thoro-Graph sheet through his 5yo year, 2004. The race in question occurred on 12/18/03. He won by 10 that day and ran 1-3/4 for the first time.

[TGAB]

Golly, wow, holy smokes, gee whiz, gosh darn, that Lake is a good trainer. Runs the horse back on 8 days, off a 7 point top-- and gets a forward move.

Good thing I haven\'t been drinking the Kool-Aid, or I might think there was some skullduggery going on here, rather than good old fashioned horsemanship and deworming.

TGJB

[sighthound]

Maybe you\'d better re-read that,   You might see that I was saying the opposite of what you apparently think I said.

[SoCalMan2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So Cal,
>
> A One Rocket was a very fast sprinter that had
> lots of fast figs, from memory.The Feds made a big
> deal because there was a hint of \"wiseguy\"
> attached to this supposed betting coup on a 9-5
> shot. The small time guys involved with A One
> Rocket were around New York tracks forever ands
> were no where near what the feds portrayed.
>
>
> Mike

First, to TGAB, very big thanks for all the efforts posting sheets here and also supplementing after the fact the Derby Special.  I know that this is a pain and interruption in the work you need to do, so big thank you for accepting these detours.

Second, having now seen A One Rocket Sheet\'s, Mike does have a point.  While I would disagree that A One Rocket was a very fast sprinter with lots of fast figs at the time of the race in question, the jump up is actually not that suspicious.  There really is only one thing that makes it suspicious which is the short rest.  Other than the short rest, this is a horse that worked its way down to a \"5.0\" in its first four races (all as a 3 yo) and then reacted.  The race in question appeared as the horse (after requiring a lengthy break) was clearing working its way back down in its 4 y.o. year.  Although the short rest would have made me cautious, I would have definitely projected A One Rocket to break through the \"5\" in either the race it did or its next race.  The fact that the break through was to a \"1.75\" is not so troubling to me.  If somebody told me a 3 yo topped out at \"5.0\" and what would I expect it to top out at in its 4 yo year, \"1.75\" is certainly in the acceptable realm.

To me, A One Rocket is sort of a grey area horse.  The only thing really suspicious to me was the very short rest.  If you take that away, then the horse\'s progression is not unusual or suspicious to me.  Anybody have other thoughts?  I would not vote for A One Rocket to be placed on a wall of shame.

[SoCalMan2]

Just noticed that both Metaminer and Vicar\'s Vixen are mares.  Maybe Lake has a special horse gynecologist?  In all seriousness, gelding is an option for horses.  For mares, are there special feminine things that can be done?  I do recall from way back that some fillies and mares have issues of air flow back there and there are patches and the like that can be used to solve air issues.  Maybe there is something like horse viagra or the like.