Lifetime Grand Slam

[BB]

Say what you will about the 10011, Jerry, but we have some of the most nattily attired canines you will ever see.

[richiebee]

With NYRA floundering and rudderless and Stronach about to be crushed by debt
service, CDI might be all that\'s left in terms of major operators besides
Oaklawn and Keeneland, the latter two being seasonal racetracks.

[miff]

\"Finally, for those of you with little to no contest experience who are thinking about getting your feet wet, you should know that there is no evidence to support the idea that there\'s a relationship between handicapping ability and the amount one spends to enter a contest or get qualfied. If anything, any relationship which does exist is exactly the opposite of the one suggested, as in you will earn the respect of the best players if, in addition to everything else, you\'re able to figure out a way to qualify on the cheap, so to speak. Although this isn\'t my personal opinion, the reality is that a majority believes that those who pony up $5k to compete against less than 50 players for five spots are in some respects trying to buy their way in\"


Nice NTRA spin Mall,

... what will you say when the little old lady wins by picking the horse wearing her favorite colors??

Mike

[TGJB]

It\'s funny, because I was just getting my ducks in a row to go after CD in a couple of weeks. As far as I know, this caught a lot of people flatfooted-- that organization is not well thought of, and nobody thought they would do anything useful without being forced to.

There are a lot of devils in the details here. For example, CD outlawed alkalyzing agents, and then didn\'t start testing for them for 6 years. And then stopped again, not testing the entire meet last time they had the BC. They claim they tested random horses that day, who knows.

And that\'s the point. Until the tests results are published, we will not know whether testing is actually being done, and whether results are being buried, or offenders punished. Nothing in this plan about publishing results. YET.

Yeah, the NTRA plan was meaningless. Purely a publicity stunt to get the Feds off the tracks backs. An attempt to deal with a problem of perception, not the actual problem.

As far as other tracks following suit-- the very night before this came out I had basically convinced a top official for another major track operator to come out with a similar (but less inclusive) program, to get out in front of the issue before the question of dealing with a boycott came up. I would assume this will further encourage him.

On contests-- some of us view the real money contests as an end in themselves, since the prize money is significant. We\'re not playing to qualitry for the big dance, that\'s a bonus. And anyone who thinks risking $5,000 to try to win an entry worth $1,500 is getting it cheap is someone I want to book.

The year long contest makes the individual contests all the more important. And interesting. Roger signed up for Keeneland, the coat and tie rule might keep me from going with him. Have these guys ever actually seen a horseplayer? Alfred Vanderbilt, when he was head of NYRA, once came back from touring the grandstand and said he now understood where horseplayers got the money to come out every day-- they saved it on laundry and razor blades.

[miff]

\"Have these guys ever actually seen a horseplayer? Alfred Vanderbilt, when he was head of NYRA, once came back from touring the grandstand and said he now understood where horseplayers got the money to come out every day-- they saved it on laundry and razor blades\"

JB,

Most of the people \"heading up\" the tracks would not have a clue that those guys(like you and I know) walking around like hobo\'s are betting huge sums of money every day.

Most interesting to me is that Dr.Mick Peterson will be \'testing\' surfaces at CDI\'s tracks. Will it be long before it is confirmed that all paths are not equal all of the time? Would you then consider making some type of artistic adjustment for ground loss on those occasions?


Mike

[Rick B.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...the coat and tie rule might keep me from
> going with him.

Seriously.
 
I had an IT manager tell me a few years ago that suit and tie for men was on the verge of \"making a big comeback\" in the workplace. I laughed right in his face. Not surprisingly, I didn\'t get that contract.

Coat and tie at a contest? KMA. The next time I wear a tie will be at my funeral. And, just a tie.

[TGJB]

The fact that there may be a difference in the \"speed\" of paths doesn\'t tell you how fast each path is. The only way to know that would be if you had a lot of horses running in each path-- and that means STAYING in each path, not moving in and out, which is what really happens. Also, it\'s as wrong to assume the speed of individual paths stay the same all day as it is to make that assumption with track speed in general, so you would only have the horses in an individual race to work with.

Look-- as I said at the Expo, what we are doing is no different than what Beyer or anyone who does not use ground loss is doing. Andy doesn\'t say, these horses finihed together, but this one ran on the better part of the track, so he gets 81 and the other gets 86. The difference is that Ragozin and I would rather know how far they actually traveled, because ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, traveling more = lengths = time. And there is no accurate way to measure the things that are not equal (speed of different paths)-- you can try to adjust for those yourself if you want.

[miff]

JB,

Don\'t disagree but I believe you would be surprised how often all things are not equal, path wise.It\'s not my opinion, I don\'t ride but guys that ride every day tell me of path differences that range between subtle and pronounced.I doubt that is only the case in New York.

Mike

[TGJB]

Even assuming they are right, the questions become a) do the differences exist, and are they the same, all the way around the track, and b) how much of each race is each horse spending in each path. Very complicated stuff.

[miff]

Yes, very complicated. Some years ago the base, (not the cushion), at Belmont Park shifted about 4feet down towards the rail.In the 6 day period that it lasted almost every winner made the Belmont sweep move and got \"credit\" for ground loss.I\'m sure the figs were correct, methodology wise,but an \"x\" did not nearly tell that story. That was an extreme case but horses that ran back did well if they were caught inside those days and not as well in they were in the outside flow.

I\'m generally a little surprised at your response. You have never instructed one of your riders to stay off the inside because it was playing dead that day?

Mike

[TGJB]

I have told riders that. I didn\'t say rails don\'t become \"dead\" (we mark them, after all), just that it can\'t be quantified.

[bobphilo]

Jerry,

Mike and I hashed this out in detail in the Dunkirk’s Figure thread in which he gave probably the best argument against incorporating ground loss into speed figures. I understand Mike’s point in that taking a wider path may negate the disadvantage of ground loss if the path offers substantially faster footing.

However, the bottom line is that ground loss is always negative, precise and quantifiable. Path speed may be positive, negative or none existent, is not quantifiable and is a separate variable to ground loss. One cannot deal with path speed by ignoring ground loss in calculating figures. Like other qualitative factors it is best dealt with in the interpretation of speed figures, just as \"poor start\" and \"checked\" are.

To see the discussion covered more fully on both sides see the Dunkirk’s Figure thread.

Bob

[dehere]

Jerry - Come on man, where did you get the idea that an entry in the NHC is worth $1,500? Me thinks that if you qualified again and put up your entry for auction the winning bid would be a bit more than that. In fact, I suspect that if the NTRA offered a spot or two for auction on the open market you\'d see bids at 10K or more. I mean, take the World Series by comparison. You can spend $1,000 to buy your way into that event, compete with 700+ competitors for a chance to win $300,000. Or, you can qualify for the NHC, compete against 200 or so, with no buy-ins possible, and compete for a half mill - plus the Eclipse (many may think that latter prize isn\'t worth all that much. Personally, I think it would be pretty cool to win that).

[Boscar Obarra]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Have these guys ever actually seen a horseplayer?
> Alfred Vanderbilt, when he was head of NYRA, once
> came back from touring the grandstand and said he
> now understood where horseplayers got the money to
> come out every day-- they saved it on laundry and
> razor blades\"
>
>
 Was he introduced personally to Marty W. or was it just a drive by?

[miff]

\"Was he introduced personally to Marty W. or was it just a drive by?\"


Box,

...back then, my guess would be raggedy Teddy!


Mike