Hold Me Back

[Josephus]

Anybody know what took HMB so long to get back to the races this season?  Very smart job by Mott, skipping the Fla races at GP and avoiding some of the big boys. He picks up a nice check and now is in the Derby.

[miff]

A little surprising Beyer 97, for Hold Me Back. Considering ground loss 3-4wide 2nd turn, his TG fig could be in the 1 area if TG agrees.A huge forward move from his 2yr old figs.

Mike

[covelj70]

concern for me on this one is that if Billy thought he could run on the dirt, he would have had him on the dirt already this year.

It\'s hard to toss his awful Remsen when they haven\'t been willing to try him on the dirt again this year.

The WinStar guys really love the Derby so if the Poly angle was their best bet to get there, so be it.  Further, the fact that he\'s going to run in the Blue Grass next tells me Billy definitely thinks he\'s a poly/turf horse.

Trainer intent tells me we can toss this one on the First Sat in May regardless of what the figs say.

[big18741]

Wide/wide is preferred at Turfway.

[BB]

The sire profile for Giant\'s Causeway shows -4.5 points for 3yo over 2yo, so there must be quite a few with sheets similar to HMB\'s. If he runs well in the Blue Grass, and considering how well his sire ran in the 2000 Classic at CD, that could make him really hard to toss on Derby day.

[covelj70]

Tiznow ran great at Churchill Downs and Col John didn\'t exactly relish the CD surface in last year\'s Derby.

[BB]

I\'m not saying he has to like CD, all I\'m saying is here\'s a nice synth horse who\'s never gone back who may be fast enough with another forward move who - if he makes it to the starting gate - will be racing on dirt for the 2nd time. Tough to use at short odds or toss with confidence off of what we\'ve seen. What would you think if Mott decided to skip the BG and train up to the race?

[covelj70]

If he trained up to the race, I don\'t think he would be fit enough.

I think the world of Mott but no one can get a young 3 year old ready to go 10f off of 1 race in 5.5 months which is what he would be trying to do at that point.

What I would like to see is for him to run in the Wood or the Illinois Derby but I don\'t expect that\'s very likely.

I don\'t think it was a coincidence that the horses that had their final prep on poly last year ran so poorly in the Derby, I expect that to continue this year..famous last words

(flash forward to Derby Day with me tearing up about 50 tickets as The Paplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile cross the Wire 1/2 with Hold Me Back a fast closing third)....

[jimbo66]

BB,

I would not worry about the \"tough to use at short odds\" comment.  If Hold Me Back runs in the Derby, he will be better than 30-1.  IF you like him, you will be able to use him at a price.

He only has the one dirt race, so you can forgive it, but Mott put him right back on Poly.  Desormeaux has ridden quite a few horses in his time and his comments after the race were pretty telling.  He said he had no idea if he would be a derby horse, but thought he would be good in the Blue Grass.  

Another \"synthetic only\" horse, until proven otherwise.

[Silver Charm]

That would be three races in six weeks. Doesn\'t sound like Motts style but if he won the BG or ran really well there is always that outside pressure to run in the Derby.

I have adjusted my handicapping to Synthetic so this next comment is not going there. But last weekends race needs to be changed from the Lanes End to the Dead End. No Derby winners coming out of here anytime this century.

Also just when you think a Mike Battaglia Race Call can\'t get any worse he always proves he\'s got one more left in him.......

[jimbo66]

Silver,

I hate to bash, but boy was Battaglia bad in that race.  He went about 10 seconds without naming a horse by its name, just saying an occasional \"gaining on the outside\".

I imagine the art of calling races is very difficult.  Even as a person who has seen and bet on thousands of races, I can occasionally lose sight of the ONE HORSE I bet on in a race.  But I have never actually heard anybody worse than Mike Battaglia.  Not even close.

[Silver Charm]

Remember the character Boone in the movie Animal House.

After the Togo Party, the next day he pronounced, \"It was a new low\" and was proud of himself.

This was Battaglia after last Sats Lanes End......

[BB]

Hey Jim. If HMB runs a strong Blue Grass - winning it or a good second to FF if that one runs well - I doubt he would be 30-1 on Derby Day. Mind you, I\'m not saying he shouldn\'t be 30-1 (even with that scenario), but my guess is he\'d be less than half that (OK, maybe that\'s not \"short\", even for the Derby, so, fair point).
Obviously, this horse has negatives (slow 2yo top, no fast dirt figs, a late-starting 3yo campaign) ... all I\'m saying is, it may be premature to dismiss him at this point.

[BB]

Silver - Obviously, it\'s not the toughest of preps, but two years back a horse by the name of Hard Spun did pretty well coming out of the Lane\'s End.

[BB]

Thanks, Cov. Quite a bit of merit in what you say and I can\'t really disagree with you. Still, depending on many factors, if Mott saw fit to enter him, I, for one, would have a tough time tossing him (at least from an ITM finish).