Dunkirk Got The Best Fig

[Silver Charm]

Wide on the far turn. Souped up Track. They were all out to get him today.

See everyone on the first Saturday in May!!

[jimbo66]

Silver,

You are rotating between redboarding and posting inane comments.  \"Out to get him\"?  Who exactly was \"out to get him\"?

The track was playing fast, but that doesn\'t mean it was inside speed favoring.  Speed seemed to play well, but Quality Road beat Dunkirk \"on the square\".  QR was 2w on both turns, Johnny V let Dunkirk get the jump on him on the far turn, which I thought was questionable riding by Johnny V, but QR pulled away, at will, when challenged.  WAtch how both horses came back after the race, QR was full of himself still, while Dunkirk looked knocked out.

That doesn\'t mean that if Dunkirk gets into the Derby, he won\'t win at the longer distance, especially with a tough race under his belt today.  

But QR is for real.  Nice race.  And I wouldn\'t be so sure Dunkirk got the best fig, he was one path wider on the 2nd turn, and had the rail on the first turn.  And the margin was not that close at the finish.

[Silver Charm]

Jimbo whatever you are smoking today give me some. I got beat a head in the last and it cost me the Pick Four and a Dime. Two crushing Exacta beats at Dubai earlier (1st and 3rd, 2nd and 3rd) in Photos with every horse 14-1 or more.

I won $10 when I should have won $10K.    

They were both 2W on the first turn and Dunkirk came off the final turn 4W after he had closed in from having to go 6W. Beaten less than two (1 3/4 per the chart) and was a little short.

The winner looked super. He had an extra race under his belt and stiffer pre-race training regimen.

Jimbo just curious. Are you and Jake H on the Rag Board one in the same because you two sure sound a lot alike.

[jimbo66]

Congrats on the $10.  

I was referring to your Indian Blessing post.  Mention 3 horses, then post after the race that you hit the race, with somebody you didn\'t mention.  Whatever.  But when you start making stupid comments about \"everybody out to get Dunkirk\", that is over the top.  

You are also wrong about RQ  being wound tighter for this race than Dunkirk.  You really believe Pletcher didn\'t have his horse cranked, knowing he had to win to ensure the Derby.  Gimme a break.  That kind of stuff just wastes space on the board.  

I know you like Dunkirk, and I think with a little luck he still gets in the Derby and will move forward off today\'s race.  Be happy with that.  You still may be right about him.  But today, RQ was better.  They were even at the top of the stretch and RQ spurted away.  Better luck next time.

Don\'t spend the $10 all at once.....

[toppled]

First, I admit I\'m biased because I think Quality Road is the Derby winner & I have my future bet on him.  
Here\'s my thought on the OP-I\'ll let Dunkirk get a better fig in the Florida Derby & the Kentucky Derby, but as far as crossing the finish line, Quality Road finished ahead of Dunkirk today and he\'ll probably do the same in Kentucky. Quality Road has much better tactical speed than Dunkirk.  Dunkirk will be prone to wide trips throughout his career.  Now he may get some great figs, but he will also lose a number of races to horses with higher final sheet #s than he gets.  Now,put him in a 20 horse field and he\'s a handicapper\'s nightmare.  He may indeed have a better fig when he goes 6 wide as Quality Road hugs the rail down the stretch at Churchill.  I\'ll take cashing my ticket to a better # any day of the week.

[Silver Charm]

Dunkirk will make the field. The $150k he made today will make the field since most of these preps are being won by the same horses in their respective parts of the country.  Last years 2YO crop is in shambles other than the Baffert horse and he is already in based on earnings.

Pletcher knows he got hosed today by a speed favoring strip a paceless race and another outfit desperate to win. This was a payback to Jerkins for having to DQ Corinthian a few years back.

Dunkirk can run inside if he needs too. He will be there at CD in five weeks at the same track his daddy went favored in the Derby and his momma won the Oaks. He will be a grown up man by then and Quality Road better be bringing more than he brought today.  

And he better ready for an ass kicking that cheap speed pedigree of his won\'t cut it at a mile and quarter.........

[BB]

(the sound of Elusive Quality in his stall, laughing heartily)

[big18741]

Dunkirk will not make the gate with 150k in earnings.

Tremendous effort,but maybe too much too soon for the late starting colt.He looked bad in deep stretch on the head on.Didn\'t see it in the charts,but he probably gets a Bo on his sheet.At any rate I think you\'re screwed if you have futures on him.He\'s gonna be short on dollars and cramming another prep is a bad idea.

Gomez saved the ground early and didn\'t push Dunkirk out of his comfort zone to stay near the pace.Desormeaux did the opposite with Theregoesjojo.He was riding the racetrack and not his horse.

Quality Road is very fast and he gets five weeks.He looked yesterday like another furlong wouldn\'t be a problem.If he catches a junk field like Big Brown did last year he\'ll dominate.That\'s yet to be determined.We have three dirt preps at 1 and 1/8th and two more on the carpet.Long way to go.

Only thing I know for sure-Quality Road will have to deal with better on and around the front end than Casey\'s on Call.

[toppled]

This doesn\'t look like a cheap speed pedigree, Sire has a Derby winner, Mare is a full sister to winner of 1 1/4 CCAO:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/qualityroad750.pdf

[richiebee]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dunkirk will make the field. The $150k he made
> today will make the field since most of these
> preps are being won by the same horses in their
> respective parts of the country.  Last years 2YO
> crop is in shambles other than the Baffert horse
> and he is already in based on earnings.
>
  Quality Road (how many Derby starts does Jimmy Jerkens have?)
  and Dunkirk (less than stellar Derby record for Pletcher) will bounce
  like super balls at CD.

  With regards to Quality Road, I ask the Derby History Question: How
  many colts who were not originally nominated for the Triple Crown
  won the Florida Derby in track record time and came back to win
  the Derby in their next start?

  And while I am bouncing colts out, could I bounce out the over-prepped
  Old Fashioned? Did he really need to run in all 3 OP preps? The better
  OF runs in the Arkansas Derby, the more likely he turns in a stinker
  at CD.

  There. I\'ve taken out 3 of the top choices. I\'m beginning to feel better
  already.


> Pletcher knows he got hosed today by a speed
> favoring strip a paceless race and another outfit
> desperate to win. This was a payback to Jerkins
> for having to DQ Corinthian a few years back.
>
   Unfortunately on the internet we can not tell if you have a straight face
   when you make the \"payback for DQ\" comment. I mean, you dont really believe
   this, do you?

   And by the way,the name\'s \"Jerkens\"      

> Dunkirk can run inside if he needs too. He will be
> there at CD in five weeks at the same track his
> daddy went favored in the Derby and his momma won
> the Oaks. He will be a grown up man by then and
> Quality Road better be bringing more than he
> brought today.  


  I never understood why they would name a pricey colt for an episode in my
  mind which will always be associated with retreat, recapitulation and  
  evacuation. I expect a similar, though less dramatic, retreat by Donekirk in
  the Derby.

  The same outfit\'s rabbit, Europe,is a 2.6 mill Unbridled\'s Song (as you say
  his daddy was favored in the Derby) who made his debut as a 3YO in a 5
  furlong race. I\'m sure he ran a stellar eighth of a mile at the
  yearling sale he was sold at. So much money spent on runners who in the
  end will contribute so little to the Sport when all is said and done.
  A business model which will not sustain Racing here in a recession, under
  the TARP.

[miff]

Whether or not Dunkirk gets the better TG fig is not the real issue. You gotta drink alot of Kool Aid to believe Dunkirk ran \"faster\"(in a true racing sense) than QR yesterday.Dunkirk \"ran\" app the last 5/16ths,QR ran the whole race and took Dunkirk\'s best punch with impunity.

Thats yesterday, going forward who knows.Beyer fig of 103 for QR seems a bit light but the racing surface was fake fast and there were no other 2 turn dirt races to compare it to.


Mike

[Dana666]

Reading all these posts is a bit funny -- such a war of words! Geez, they\'re both terrific horses, and I told a friend at the track yesterday, I wouldn\'t be surprised if they ran 1-2 in the Derby (if Dunkirk gets in). That being said, I still think QR ran the better race. The pace was fast all the way, and the horse re-broke at the top of the stretch, when Dunkirk looked him in the eye; I\'ve seldom, if ever, seen that in a 1 1/8 race in my entire life. I can see that tactical speed being really helpful in the derby -- the last few years that\'s the pattern of Derby winners -- you\'re not coming from far back. In my mind the FLA Derby was so much better than any prep race so far, it\'s a joke. The track was fast but the inside wasn\'t that great -- it was a little deeper. They have about a month to recover. Coming from someone with the lowest % winners of anyone to ever post on this board, I\'d have to say this year looks pretty easy to me -- QR is a complete standout, head and shoulders above his rivals.

[bellsbendboy]

Quality Road will go into the Derby and appears to have little chance at a short number if, he is even in the gate.  He\'s certainly a top shelf colt but will have had only one two turn race under his belt and will have as many thirty day layoffs as races. BBB

[BitPlayer]

ESPN mentioned that the wind was gusting up to 25 mph at the beginning of the telecast, but didn\'t say much about it afterward. It would have been nice if that had at least talked about which direction it was blowing.

I\'ve always been curious which is more favorable to front runners (particularly in one-turn races), a tailwind down the back side or in the stretch.  I would have liked to hear Bailey talk about how the wind affects a race.

From what I could tell from a brief look at a flag, the wind was a tailwind down the back side. That would certainly help explain the new track record at 7f.  (I\'m also guessing they started keeping a fresh set of records when they reconfigured the track a few years ago.)  Wind direction would also have a big impact on how one views the Florida Derby fractions.

Who knew Pletcher was capable of such emotion?  If he\'s been high on Dunkirk for so long, I\'m surprised he went the maiden-allowance route, rather than jumping into graded stakes company earlier, maybe at Tampa.

It will be interesting to see how the whole graded earnings thing plays out.  Would the opportunity to keep a Coolmore horse out of the gate cause Godolphin to lean towards starting both Regal Ransom and Desert Party?

I\'m curious how solid TG\'s figs for the Fountain of Youth are?  Given that both Quality Road and Jojo were carrying only 114 in that race, they translate a point or two faster than the Beyers.  They also make it appear that Capt. Candyman ran quite creditably, which was not how the connections reacted to the race.  To my unpracticed eye, Quality Road\'s line looks much different if he ran in the neg 2 range in the FOY than if he ran in the neg 4 range.

[Silver Charm]

The Winds was blowing pretty good all day out of the south. So they were downwind on the backstretch and into it down the lane.

Times in 100ths:  :23.49  :46.83  1:10.66  1:35.28  1:47.72

37 flat for the last three eighths is REAL good into the wind.

I count 9 horses ahead of Dunkirk in money (this list was pre-race) who are out or iffy for the Derby. Some people are going to have to get some real serious Derby Fever and start making poor decisions to bounce him out. There will be a few more added after these next preps but I am thinking only a few.  

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information/graded-earnings

I am thinking Dunkirk paired or maybe even inched forward to a modest neg. QR \"backing up\" to a Neg 1 doesn\'t look right. Maybe the FOY was Graded a little too quick but yet the 2 for Phil in that race seemed to fit based on how he ran yesterday.

Game of inches.....