I\'m going to play devil\'s advocate to the analysis: I think that his 5 2s & 5 3s from last year showed a fast 2yo compared with most of this field. Though one can say he was never an improving horse at 2. However, improvement is expected from 2 to 3 as he should be 1.5 faster on age. I can forgive his 1st start and even give him credit for nearly matching his 2yo top-a possible prelude to an explosive move in his next race (today\'s). Also, his worst figure should come on a wet track as seen on his sire\'s data-he should be a point higher on synthetic than an off track. Forgiving his 3yo debut due to conditioning and the sloppy track, plus getting in tight during the race, I expect a winning race from Terrain today. Also, although I don\'t like Friesan Fire in the Derby due to no mile & 1/8th race & the 7 weeks, I expect the Louisiana Derby to be a key race, producing both the Bluegrass & Ark Derby winners. I\'ll be saving on General Quarters in the Bluegrass because his breeding from TSN\'s sire stats indicate he\'s bred up & down for synthetics & if he runs back to that SF Davis # he\'s a major player today.
As far as the Arkansas Derby, I know Papa Clem\'s #s don\'t come near Old Fashioned\'s, but I don\'t see any classy horses that Old Fashioned has run against while Papa has been competitive against much better foes. I expect a big forward move as he seems to love the Oaklawn racing surface with those workouts.
