I think we're down to 5 in the Derby

[toppled]

While this week\'s races were entertaining, I did not see a horse who can win the Derby coming out of the Bluegrass or the Arkansas Derby.  Add to their task coming back on 3 weeks rest against better spaced competition and I believe the Derby winner was in his stall today. While I can\'t dismiss all of today\'s competitors from the exotics, I believe the winner is one of these 5:
1) Quality Road-my favorite of the bunch because I have him at 14-1 in futures, if he shows up in Louisville 100%, he has a great chance of winning it all.  While he had a workout Friday, I\'ll still need to see more evidence that he\'s 100% before giving him my final backing.
2) Dunkirk-at first, I took his 2nd behind Quality Road as a sign I was right that QR was the better horse.  However, after putting my ego aside, upon further examination I have to believe he was compromised by the track in the Florida Derby and he could be the best of his generation.  
3) Pioneerof the Nile-since Baffert got him, all he does is win and compile favorable class lines behind him.  He\'s beaten the Wood & Gotham winner and now the Arkansas Derby winner.  Now the interesting thing is, I thought he was a poly horse, but this week I bought TSN\'s sire ratings & his sire only gets a C on poly breeding from TSN (although his dam\'s sire gets an A). While he looks slower on paper, those class lines just stand out too much to not believe he\'s a serious contender to win it all.  He also has the only trainer of the contenders who has won the Derby.  
4) Friesan Fire-if he had a different trainer, I\'d dismiss him for not racing
1 1/8 and the 7 weeks, but even though he hasn\'t won one, Jones certainly knows how to get a horse to peak on Derby day.  Personally, I don\'t think he has the class of the top 3, but he\'s one of the 5 who can win this.  
5) I Want Revenge-While I\'ve taken a stand against him all spring, I have to admit that nobody can compile a most likely to win the Derby list without his name included among the group.
If anyone believes that any horse other than one of these can win, you\'re invited to state your case.

[imallin]

9-5 on the \'field\' in the first derby future wager is looking like the gift of the century.

[chrifron]

I don\'t think you can discount the races that both Papa Clem and General Quarters ran today--GQ ran a 1 on TG at Tampa so he can come back to the number, and I would assume Papa gets a similar figure today--he did run 2nd to Friesan Fire last time out and clearly went forward. I also think that QR and Dunkirk are short on experience, especially in their 2YO seasons --which can hurt in a 20 horse field.

 Let\'s wait and see if Gomez picks POTN over Dunkirk. That will be very telling, because Ron Anderson rarely makes the wrong call and GG\'s resume is missing a Derby--not sure that Coolmore would hold it against them because they don\'t always ride Gomez. Jerry Bailey had some interesting things to say about the rivalry between Coolmore and Godolphin on the Arkansas Derby broadcast on ESPN.

 Last year Big Brown was an anamoly--he beat what I believe was one of the weaker TC fields ever--I grant you that he ran the numbers, but still--there were few impressive horses in that bunch. Has Da\'Tara won a race since the Belmont? On the other hand, this year we have a talented group that may be 10 deep--in my opinion, that plays against lightly-raced horses such as Dunkirk and QR.

I can\'t wait for Thorograph\'s Derby package to come out and for the Multimedia seminar. It\'s the highlight of Derby Week for me. Thanks, Jerry for creating a product and a website that is ahead of the curve at all times in relation to the on-line world and modern technology.

[toppled]

I have some problems with Papa Clem & General Quarters.  I cashed on both yesterday-I had Papa Clem in Arkansas & General Quarters was my saver play at Keeneland & his odds got me in good shape that race-so I think I know why they were so impressive yesterday & may not be major players in Louisville.
Papa Clem had the class lines to jump up & beat a weak group, where his only competition was Old Fashioned.  Clem signaled his love of the Oaklawn strip with some dazzling works over the track.  Let\'s see him duplicate those works at Churchill.  Also, he ran a (probable) top 3 weeks before the Derby-that\'s been bad news in Louisville in recent years-see Z Fortune & Gayego 2008.  
General Quarters is a case of the trainer putting him in the perfect race yesterday.  If he ran back or topped his SF Davis number, he had every right to beat yesterday\'s field.  As I noted in my yesterday AM post about Terrain, GQ is bred up & down to love polytrack. Now say he matched his top or moved forward-I\'d temper my enthusiasm for him because I know he\'s bred to perform best on poly & his top dirt number is still about 3-4 points slower than what it will take to win this year\'s Derby.  The Derby winner will need -2 to -3 to pull off a win in Louisville, GQ doesn\'t have the number power to compete with them.  Also, he\'s on 3 weeks rest which really is not the way to go into the Derby.  If I drew anything from GQ yesterday, it\'s that Musket Man is a dangerous horse underneath for tris & supers.

[TreadHead]

I think it\'s a mistake to leave Chocolate Candy out of the discussion as well, given the large move-ups by IWR and Papa Clem (once he got a fast track).  Choc Candy is much faster than those 2 were on poly (as is POTN), and while a move-up is far from guaranteed, if a moveup does occur he should be right there.  The general rule I use (which has already been laughed at by some here, but whatever) is to subtract 3 points IF you suspect a moveup can occur.  That puts Choc Candy right there with the rest.

[SoCalMan2]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think it\'s a mistake to leave Chocolate Candy
> out of the discussion as well, given the large
> move-ups by IWR and Papa Clem (once he got a fast
> track).  Choc Candy is much faster than those 2
> were on poly (as is POTN), and while a move-up is
> far from guaranteed, if a moveup does occur he
> should be right there.  The general rule I use
> (which has already been laughed at by some here,
> but whatever) is to subtract 3 points IF you
> suspect a moveup can occur.  That puts Choc Candy
> right there with the rest.

I agree on Chocolate Candy.  He probably ran a bigger figure than Pioneerof The Nile ran because it looked like CC was easily widest of all in the SA Derby.  I also like Hollendorfer as a trainer and the specially designed 7 week spacing into the SA Derby.  My recollection is that he has one of those just steadily improving lines with no reaction.  Also, with all the talk about G. Gomez and company lines, did anybody notice the horse that ran third in the Blue Grass?  He has run a bunch of times and is still eligible for an NW1xmc and he has run against a lot of different horses that have gone on to do well (including a second place finish on the Tapeta behing Chocolate Candy).  Finally, did anybody notice the pedigree on Chocolate Candy?  Gotta love the maternal granddam -- a product of the mating of Alydar and the mother of Affirmed.  This could be be the ultimate Alydar\'s revenge!

[big18741]

Who\'s gonna rough up Quality Road on or near the front end? Regal Ransom-the rabbit for Desert Party? Where are the pace horses?

I think we might be down to 1 and just figure out the underneath stuff like last year.Too much of a tactical advantage IMO if that horse works good the next two weeks.

[jimbo66]

Toppled,

I had the same five last week, but after some more thought, I think it is just four,not five.  I am throwing out Pioneer of the Nile.  His synthetic figures are not as good as Chocolate Candy and I really don\'t like the way he was pulling and rank in the SA Derby.  I know the \"glass half full\" analysis is that with real speed to run at, he won\'t be rank early and will be able to relax.  I am not buying that.  I think he is a turf horse who can run on synthetics, but if he beats me on dirt, so be it.

Need to see the last round of figures, but there really don\'t look to be too many \"contenders\" this year.  

I don\'t think yesterday puts Papa Clem in good position to run a big race in 3 weeks, but have to believe his figure yesterday was negative territory.  He was 3w and 4w on the turns.  If you figure Old Fashioned ran his usual 1 or 2, that puts Papa with a strong race.

Throw out the bluegrass horses.  It isn\'t a real derby prep anymore.

[Halo Fire]

Jim,

I agree with your summation on PoTN. A friend of mine calls him Fraud of The Nile....

I\'m curious. What is your opinion of post time odds of the big 4?

[jimbo66]

Halo,

Tough to guess at odds this early, but I really believe that Quality Road, I Want Revenge and Dunkirk go off \"co-favorites\" around 5-1.  I have read a lot of stuff about people waiting to bet Dunkirk at 10-1, but that ain\'t happening.  

I think Friesan Fire goes off around 8-1.  The 7 week layoff will scare many \"non-sheets\" players and the big fig on the wet track will scare away others.  

Pioneer of the Nile will likely be next, possibly single digits odds as well.  

I would bet any amount of money right now that the favorite will be 7-2 or higher.  I don\'t see a scenarion where somebody goess off shorter than that.

[flushedstraight]

How forgotten will Win Willy and unknown connections be by post time. 30-1? 40-1? Don\'t yet know his exact # from last but given the effort\'s about a few point regression his pattern and figs look pretty close to this

http://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/derby2001.pdf

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Halo,
>
> Tough to guess at odds this early, but I really
> believe that Quality Road, I Want Revenge and
> Dunkirk go off \"co-favorites\" around 5-1.  I have
> read a lot of stuff about people waiting to bet
> Dunkirk at 10-1, but that ain\'t happening.  
>
> I think Friesan Fire goes off around 8-1.  The 7
> week layoff will scare many \"non-sheets\" players
> and the big fig on the wet track will scare away
> others.  
>
> Pioneer of the Nile will likely be next, possibly
> single digits odds as well.  
>
> I would bet any amount of money right now that the
> favorite will be 7-2 or higher.  I don\'t see a
> scenarion where somebody goess off shorter than
> that.


My best guess:

Gomez will have a huge impact on Dunk\'s odds. Could be as high as 9-1 without him, 6 or 7-1 with him. If we hear nothing more of the 1/4 crack, QR should share favoritism with IWR at 4-1 or 9-2. FF will be around 7-1. Everybody and their dog likes CC better than Pioneer so far - expect the odds on the latter to drift as high as 15-1 without Gomez (maybe 15-1 on both).

The decision on the Godolphin speedball and the track speed on the big day could tweak the odds. A very quick surface and no RR, and QR could drift down towards 4-1 or 7-2. If they\'re coming from out of the clouds, Dunk drops to 5-1, and CC takes more money.

[jimbo66]

Flushed,

I would never criticize anybody touting a longshot, but I don\'t think they are that similar.

Win Willy has one figure that puts him in the general range of a contender.  (unless he gets a much better figure than I expect for yesterday).  Monarchos had 3, 0 and 3, and the 3\'s were somewhat competitive that year and the 0 was good enough to win.

Win Willy is running against a faster group.  He has two horses that have run negative 3\'s. Even if Win Willy gets back to his zero, it likely won\'t be enough.  The derby winner is likely to have to run a negative 1 to negative 2, or so.  I can\'t see Win Willy doing that.

But if you are right, you will get paid.  Win Willy figures 40-1.

[jimbo66]

We\'ll see Michael.

Agree with you on GG having a big influence, but don\'t see 9-1 on dunkirk, with our without GG.  With GG I think Dunkirk will be as short as IWR and QR.

Won\'t see 15-1 on Pioneer of the Nile, no matter who rides him.  Too many backers already.  10-1 maybe.

[TGJB]

I basically agree with Michael\'s assessment of the odds with IWR a slight favorite over QR, but POTN ain\'t gonna be 15-1. I also don\'t think track conditions will play into the odds too much.

They\'re going to be showing the Wood 100 times between now and the Derby, and for those using the Form, it\'s going to be a huge Beyer in his first dirt try, and an excuse in his second. My position on that horse is unchanged from a betting point of view, but Jimbo is now a slight favorite for the Byk sandwich, just because it now looks like IWR will make it to the gate, which was no sure thing.

If Dunkirk gets in Anderson is sure to choose him.

I\'m gonna save my positive opinions for the seminar. And I have a few. Think Volponi.