Mike Smith to ride Chocolate Candy

[P-Dub]

Just stop already.

Your example is a 20 horse field. Nice.

Did the horse win??

[Silver Charm]

While you TWO pat yourselves on the back.

Either of you see the type of Pace in this Race that Giacomo got that day. Or the type of Deadwood quality that was up front either in that particular Derby?

You better find a trip and if you can\'t find one then you better make one.

[HP]

P-Dub makes a good point.  Is anyone going to cite Smith\'s keen judgement in getting the horse up?  If you\'re going to knock him for going wide, you have to say something positive since he must have done SOMETHING right.  His horse was clear and he got the job done.  Maybe his sense of the pace (1:35 for the mile) was really good and he knew he could get there.  There are plenty of jocks that don\'t save an inch of ground that don\'t EVER win the big dances.  

My memory of this race, in addition to disgust, was that the runner up, Closing Argument (?), I believe a K. McLaughlin trainee, RAN HIS LUNGS OUT on that pace to finish second.  Whatever happened to that horse?  I can\'t remember hearing anything about him after that.

HP

[P-Dub]

Everyone is obsessed about the \"trip\".

Any horse that doesn\'t skim the rail for the entire race is talked about in the following manner:

\"He would have finished (fill in the blank) lengths closer if he wasn\'t x paths wide on the first turn and x paths wide on the far turn.\"

There are inherent problems when you race along the rail and between horses. Traffic, bumping, checking,  etc.. which can be just as detrimental to a finishing position as a wider ride.

This fascination with trip can be ridiculous.  Its as if this one point is the be all and end all in every race discussed around here. Is it important, of course... to a degree. But there is way too much time spent about trip and wide.

Silver,

Give me examples of horses that have won the Derby because they got the best trip/ride. Give me examples of horses that skimmed the rail, came through inside and won the Derby.  I\'m not talking about a few isolated examples, because if this is one of the biggest factors in winning this race there should be many examples of this. I don\'t want to hear how Horse X was much the best so running wide didn\'t matter. No hypotheticals like the earlier example which is just an opinion and not a fact.

[P-Dub]

HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 There are plenty of jocks that
> don\'t save an inch of ground that don\'t EVER win
> the big dances.  
 
> HP

Nobody ever mentions this. Excellent point.

[Silver Charm]

Silver,

Give me examples of horses that have won the Derby because they got the best trip/ride.

Street Sense, FuPeg and Ferdinand

How many more u need??

[Rick B.]

That was the point of my post -- I doubt if Giacomo wins the 2005 Derby without the wide trip.

What good is saving ground if you end up trapped behind a wall of puking speed horses, and can\'t get out?

[Lost Cause]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> HP Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>  There are plenty of jocks that
> > don\'t save an inch of ground that don\'t EVER
> win
> > the big dances.  
>  
> > HP
>
> Nobody ever mentions this. Excellent point.


At the tracks in NY we lovingly refer to him as Mike S _ I T ..I think you can figure out the missing letter.

[miff]

Paul,

I could not agree more that ground loss/saving ground is over rated in certain trips.It cannot be disputed though that the rail is the shortest way home.

Wide Mikey is still a physically strong rider with good power in the lane.I have no hesitation betting him if I think he\'s on the best horse.

Also have to note that the running style of most of his mounts is wide sweep.


Mike

[JimP]

Shouldn\'t this be fairly easy to settle with a little statistical analysis. All you need is the sheets from all the Derby paricipants over the past X years. Then you can count how many took the 1W path, 2W path, etc. Then you can count how many winners there were from each of those paths. And from that you can calculate the Impact Value for each path in the Derby. Like I say, all it takes is a copy of the sheet for every Derby participants in the chosen sample period and somebody with a lot of free time on their hands. Go for it.

[jimbo66]

Miff,

I can understand taking a stand that Quality Road or I Want Revenge will bounce in the derby.  (although I don\'t believe they will - but I won\'t debate that with you here),

But curious why you think Dunkirk looks bouncy?  I haven\'t seen the fig he got yet for the Florida Derby, but guessing by the fact that JB said QR moved back a few points, that probably puts Dunkirk around negative 1.  That puts him with a small move forward in the Florida Derby, then 5 weeks rest.  I think he looks real good.  As a guy holding 55-1 and 14-1 on the two likely favorites (IWR and QR), I am definitely concerned that Dunkirk might have the best pattern/sheet coming into the race and frankly is the horse to beat.

[miff]

Hi Jim,

Ordinarily, I would agree but, imo:

1.Dunkirk has run his last 2 races too fast for a horse with no two year old races and no 3yr foundation to speak of.Remember his first race was a 10.

2.His connections can say what they wish but he was a tired horse after his last,laying in his head check afterwards.

3. I do not like a young horse like him running his heart out, hooking a QR type, getting repulsed while all out and not finishing the last part of that 1/16th very gamely(look at his deep stretch run closely, QR was going away imo)


He\'s very fast and talented but I still believe he is being rushed. Also of note is that this horse was NOT thought of so highly in January and Johnny V via Angel rode a different maiden when Dunkirk debuted.

So there are all my brilliant reasons to knock him.He\'ll probably win by a pole!

Good luck with your play, nice position with 2 very fast ones.


Mike

[ajkreider]

Concerning point 3, it\'s work noting that Dunkirk passed QR in the gallop-out.

[jimbo66]

Ajkreider,

I watched the gallop out and agree that technically you are correct that Dunkirk passsed Quality Road on the gallop out.  But IMO that would be a great example of a fact that is useless without accurate additional information.

Johnny V. pulled up Quality Road quicker than Gomez did on Dunkirk.  On the gallop back to the winner\'s circle Quality Road was full of himself, eerily reminiscent of the way Big Brown was after the Derby.  Dunkirk came back blowing like a fat man after a 2 mile run and appeared dull and unenergetic.

I will take the shorter gallop out and fresher looking horse.

[ajkreider]

There\'s no doubt that Dunkirk was the more tired horse.  

I had thought you were making a point about the psychology of a young horse going all out and still getting turned back.  That fact that Dunkirk didn\'t shut it down himself after the wire, and got well past QR says he\'s not psychologically worse for the wear by being tested, and losing, to QR.

If that\'s not what you were saying, then it was my misunderstanding.  Talk of horse psychology is probably too much anthropomorphizing, anyway.