Mike Smith to ride Chocolate Candy

[congaree1]

P-Dub, Thanks for the giving observation to my point.

[congaree1]

I can see the ride Gomez will give in the Oaks. They break Gomez rides the rail, then swings out at the quarter pole for the run in the lane. Sounds familiar to me.IMO, she may as well be 100-1 she will never beat Rachel on dirt!!

[Silver Charm]

You left out one thing. When she shipped East, Tricky took over the training after getting her from Frankel. If he popped her in the Ashland then the hound dogs would have been after him.

If he pops her now, then it will be because Garrett moved her up.....

[congaree1]

Do you really think a jockey will make a horse run faster? I look at it like this, you either have horse or you don\'t. I believe sometimes a better trip, but that horse does not know who is on it. I bet Santa Anita 5 days a week and agree that Gomez always try as hard as he can,but I can assure you that I watch him loose the race 75% of the time. I also believe jocks get on a horse at the perfect time. (example), Zappa and Bel Air sizzle, Gomez was the last to win on them and since neither has won a race. As I said in an earlier post, he is in good hands, with a very smart agent.

[Lost Cause]

congaree1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Do you really think a jockey will make a horse run
> faster?

I always ask the same question to people who ask me this.  You have two horses of equal ability at the eight pole in a dead heat driving to the wire.  You have a choice between Garrett Gomez and in this case Mike Smith to be on your horse.  Who are you choosing?  If you say Mike Smith you most likely just lost your money.

 This is not a knock against Smith or other jocks, I have no issues with the guy as I\'ve won money with him and lost money with him but I call it like I see it.  Better Jocks will give horses a better ride which will make them faster according to the teletimer which is the only thing that will put money in your pocket.  An adjustment for a horse being wide that makes him the fastest horse in a race means squat for your pocket if it finished fifth.

[SoCalMan2]

Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> congaree1 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Do you really think a jockey will make a horse
> run
> > faster?
>
> I always ask the same question to people who ask
> me this.  You have two horses of equal ability at
> the eight pole in a dead heat driving to the wire.
>  You have a choice between Garrett Gomez and in
> this case Mike Smith to be on your horse.  Who are
> you choosing?  If you say Mike Smith you most
> likely just lost your money.
>
>  This is not a knock against Smith or other jocks,
> I have no issues with the guy as I\'ve won money
> with him and lost money with him but I call it
> like I see it.  Better Jocks will give horses a
> better ride which will make them faster according
> to the teletimer which is the only thing that will
> put money in your pocket.  An adjustment for a
> horse being wide that makes him the fastest horse
> in a race means squat for your pocket if it
> finished fifth.


I think it comes down to trip.  If I evaluated the race beforehand that the two horses were going to give identical efforts, but I handicapped the race that one was lone speed and the other was likely to be stuck wide on one or two turns, then I would pick the horse that I projected to get the better trip regardless of who the jockey is (i would feel equally comfortable with either jockey with a lone speed horse).  In other words, in the hypo given above, with one furlong to go, sometimes I would take Smith and sometimes I would take Gomez and it depends on the running tendencies of the horses and trip expectation for the race in question.  If i had projected one horse or the other to give a sufficiently better effort to overcome trip concerns, then with one furlong to go and neutral trips, I would choose the horse I projected the better effort to in that last furlong to move ahead.  Again, to me, in that scenario, it is irrelevant who the jockey is.

However, when you factor in trip and how wide you think a horse is going to need to go, you need to consider things like post position, the horse\'s own prior race tendencies, the tendencies of the other horses in the race, and the jockey\'s tendencies.  For me, if Smith is on a horse that does not figure to have enough speed to get a good position early and is going to need to rally, then I project Smith to take a little extra ground. Some jockeys, I do not make that little extra ground projection for.  Whether or not that makes a difference in who I bet depends on the overall outcome of a lot of different variables in the race.  Sometimes I will bet Smith and sometimes I wont.  All i care about is trying to make the most accurate trip prediction I can make.

[P-Dub]

We can go round and round on this.

I will agree that Gomez is arguably the best finishing jockey around. The dude is a great jockey.

But again, how many times do you see the \"best\" horse in a race run off the rail, perhaps wide, because the jock doesn\'t want to get him stopped or hung up in traffic??  Horses that are not front runners often circle the field and close on the outside of horses. Yes, its nice if they can cut the corner and save ground. How many do??

As for Smith,  watch his ride on Becrux in that stakes race on the Friday BC undercard and tell me how wide he took that horse??  Calracing.com/replays.  He dropped to the rail down the backstretch, cut the corner turning for home, split horses in deep stretch, and scored at 14-1. It was also a 13 horse field. Don\'t tell me the guy can\'t ride or doesn\'t have courage. (Not directed at you Jimbo, a general statement)

Jimbo,
Respect your opinion, but thats all it is. You don\'t know the reason. And yes,  there have been other instances where jockeys have been replaced when a conflict may occur in the future.  How many more times do you think SB will run this year??  Probably not more than a couple before the BC. If they both remain healthy, they will run at the BC.

And since when is IEAH the experts on evaluating jockeys??  I read nothing but criticism about these guys, but this move confirms Smith isn\'t any good?? C\'mon. Can\'t wait to see the ride Gomez gives her in the Oaks. Appreciate your thoughts,  especially your Derby opinions. Good luck this weekend.

PS: I\'m done with defending Smith. Honest. I think JB might tell me to STFU if I don\'t stop. So we\'ll just agree to disagree.

[SoCalMan2]

 P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> We can go round and round on this.
>
> I will agree that Gomez is arguably the best
> finishing jockey around. The dude is a great
> jockey.
>
> But again, how many times do you see the \"best\"
> horse in a race run off the rail, perhaps wide,
> because the jock doesn\'t want to get him stopped
> or hung up in traffic??  Horses that are not front
> runners often circle the field and close on the
> outside of horses. Yes, its nice if they can cut
> the corner and save ground. How many do??
>
> As for Smith,  watch his ride on Becrux in that
> stakes race on the Friday BC undercard and tell me
> how wide he took that horse??
> Calracing.com/replays.  He dropped to the rail
> down the backstretch, cut the corner turning for
> home, split horses in deep stretch, and scored at
> 14-1. It was also a 13 horse field. Don\'t tell me
> the guy can\'t ride or doesn\'t have courage. (Not
> directed at you Jimbo, a general statement)
>
> Jimbo,
> Respect your opinion, but thats all it is. You
> don\'t know the reason. And yes,  there have been
> other instances where jockeys have been replaced
> when a conflict may occur in the future.  How many
> more times do you think SB will run this year??
> Probably not more than a couple before the BC. If
> they both remain healthy, they will run at the BC.
>
>
> And since when is IEAH the experts on evaluating
> jockeys??  I read nothing but criticism about
> these guys, but this move confirms Smith isn\'t any
> good?? C\'mon. Can\'t wait to see the ride Gomez
> gives her in the Oaks. Appreciate your thoughts,
> especially your Derby opinions. Good luck this
> weekend.
>
> PS: I\'m done with defending Smith. Honest. I think
> JB might tell me to STFU if I don\'t stop. So we\'ll
> just agree to disagree.


P-Dub

FWIW, I think the discussion is worthwhile for teasing out important handicapping issues.  Putting aside any discussion whatsoever about the merits or demerits of Mr. Smith, do you think post position is important?  My main point is that when one handicaps they do two things -- they try to project the effort the horse will run and then they try to determine what that effort will obtain in terms of finish position.  For example, I give certain types of horses in outside posts when the gate is near the turn significant demerits that they would need to overcome to be competitive regardless of who is riding.  In terms of jockey, everybody is entitled to an opinion as to how to evaluate each one individually, but the question is are there some jockeys that are so bad that demerits are necessary and are there some so good that the horse can be given a benefit?  To me, the answer to that is yes.  To some people, the answer is no.  There is no such thing to me as a jockey I wont bet on. If the horse is good enough (or the competition weak enough), any jockey no matter how bad can win.  To me trip is important enough to take into consideration in deciding how to bet -- I know you do not agree, but trip has influenced more payoffs than it has not in the Derby: 2008 -- Recapturetheglory losing to Take of Ekati and Denis of Cork; 2007 Circular Quay and Any Given Saturday losing to Imawildandcrazyguy; 2006 Brother Derek losing to Bluegrass Cat and Steppenwolfer; Empire Maker losing to Funny Cide; Victory Gallop losing to Real Quiet.  

Now, I do agree that it is extremely hard to project who will get the good trip and who will get the bad trip before the race.  The question then becomes is it worth trying at all or should one just assume that trip is simply just another factor that implies overall randomness.  To me, even though it is hard to predict, there are certain things that can be predicted that have an influence and I try to incorporate them.  But again, different strokes for different folks.  Am curious as to peoples reasons for including trip into handicapping and not including it.

[TGJB]

Re Gomez-- in the Blue Grass ROTW I said even he could not overcome the outside post. Wrong. Check out the ride he gave that horse.

At a party after the BC a couple of years ago Ron Anderson said that with Bailey retiring he was looking at taking the book of either Gomez or Dominguez, and asked me my opinion. I didn\'t have one, I hadn\'t been watching close enough, and said so. He obviously had-- those are the two, all right. They win you races you shouldn\'t necessarily win, and almost never cost you races you should win.

Jimbo-- YEP. Dutrow is an awful synth trainer. This will be first time dirt for SB. Which makes her an underlaid horse on figures that will get a much better trip, and may or may not jump up on dirt. Great.

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

Fair enough.  You are 100% right that I was just giving an opinion that the IAEH words don\'t seem to ring true, and you are also right that their credibility and decision-making has been criticized all over the place, so them switching jockeys doesn\'t mean that Smith is a bad jockey.  (and he is a HOFer, which says a lot).

Smith comes across on interviews as one helluva nice guy.  GG probably gives Stardom Bound a ride with less ground loss.  I promise, no more Mike Smith/ground loss/wide comments from me!!

As for the Oaks, I can\'t believe I am saying this, because I have been a \"Stardom Bound-basher\" who has bet against her in about 7 straight races, but I actually think she has a shot in the Oaks.  She seems to have dirt breeding.  Why can\'t she \"jump up\" first time dirt, like many others?  And if GG gives her a patented \"inside/out\" ride, she can win.

[Silver Charm]

TGJB,

That horse was my key. This was a clinic on how to get from the 11 hole to the rail in 100 yards or less without using your horse.

[Ill-bred]

I think Stardom Bound is done.

I only wish I liked someone other than Rachel Alexandra.