A case can be made to throw out the top 6 choices for the Derby

[covelj70]

Apologies if alot of this has been covered in other threads as I was traveling for the last few days.

The closer we get to this Derby, the more wide open it looks to me.  Most lists have the same 5 or 6 horses at the top and I think pretty strong cases can be made against all of them, at least for the win spot.  It could well be that the winner is the 7th betting choice or higher.  

Below are my knocks against each of the top 6.  Please note there are certainly things to like about each of them as well, I am only highlighting the issues here that I think makes them play against if the odds shake out consistent with where they are now.

1) I Want Revenge - The knock here is obivious, he\'s headed in the wrong direction.  This is the same argument around Big Brown after last year\'s Preakness.  Just like BB\'s Preakness win, IWR\'s Wood was visually very impressive which masks the fact that the numbers suggest the big gotham took alot out of the horse and he won the wood while bouncing and he will bounce even farther and harder in the derby.  (full disclosure that I have a 10-1 pool 2 futures bet on him which will cover my derby wagers so I am even more inclined to throw him out given that insurance policy)

2) Quality Road - The quarter crack and the same bounce issue as IWR.  I love the horse but he did go in the wrong direction in the Fla Derby which I would have been more willing to try to overlook if not for the foot issue.  They are now trying to baby him into the Derby with an easy breeze last weekend and only 1 more scheduled breeze (I think I read that, someone please correct me if I am wrong).  Anyway, unless he puts up a huge work between now and the Derby, he\'s a throwout as a horse that hasn\'t been able to train agressively with only 1 two turn race as a prep.

3) Dunkirk - looks good on the sheet figs/pattern (the best of anyone I believe on the pure numbers/pattern) but he was so wasted after the Fla Derby and he couldn\'t get past Quality Road in the Stretch.  Plus, he will have to go very wide coming from way back and there is no longer any kind of speed dual scenario to set up closers like there might have been before Pamplemouse and Old Fashioned got hurt.  Don\'t like him on top, maybe for a piece underneath, ala Curlin.

4) Friesan Fire - anothoer one with obvious knocks, 7 week layoff, no prep beyond 1 1/16th and hasn\'t ever run a very fast number.  Also, 25 days between race and first work back.  Lots to dislike here at single digit odds.

5) Pioneer of the Nile - never been on the dirt, his first trainer has publicly said that he moves better on the poly and turf than on the dirt, he has never run fast enough and he his jockey seems like he is passing on him to get on another mount.  No thanks for me.  Reminds me too much of Col John last year.  If he works big at CD, he will be 5 or 6 to 1 which is terrible value.

6) Chocolate Candy - my pick for this year\'s wise guy horse.  Hasn\'t run fast enough to win this and will be coming from out of it with little pace to close into.  No thanks for me here either.

To me, horses like Papa Clem, Regal Ransom and Desert Party all look just as interesting as the top 6 but will be much much better prices.  Each of these 3 has knocks against them as well but I should be getting at least 20 to 1 on these as opposed to single digits on the top 6.

One thing to keep in mind is that every derby winner since Smarty has posted a monster bullet work between their last prep and the Derby.  No big work, not on my ticket.  For the last two years, each of the top 2 have fit that bill.  Given how these horses are babied into the races now, I think we need that big work as a baromoter of who is fit enough to do it.

Thoughts?

[TGJB]

Jim-- I disagree with a few specifics (including one very important one), but that is one excellent analysis, Jimbo-esque. One of these years I\'m going to farm out the seminar to you two guys.

Keep in mind that some outfits NEVER work their horses fast, and still get big races, even off layoffs. An interesting question would be, have any horses that were reportedly NOT training well run well?

[ajkreider]

Isn\'t the problem here that you have to have two things happen - you need the favorites, especially IWR and QR, to regress, AND you need these others to move up significantly?.

Looking at some of the figs, the 2nd-tier can post new tops, and still lose to the top 2.  At the very least, I can\'t see both of them falling out of the super.

[covelj70]

very valid point but they don\'t have to fall out of the super to make this thing incredibly juicy.

Say you have 15-1, over 20-1, over 7-2, over 20-1?  would you take that?

also for the derby/oaks double, etc, I just need them out of the top spot.

[smalltimer]

Some pre Derby works that I found without digging too deep:
Big Brown May 1 3f 35.2B  (bullet) 1/19 works
Street Sense May 1 5f 101B  5/22 works, Apr 24 5fB 59.0 (bullet)1/36 works Barbaro Apr 29 4f B 46.0 (bullet) 1/69 works
Monarchos 4f 48.4 B 6/26 works
Fu Peg 6f 1:14.3 6f B 3/6 works
Charismatic Apr 26 5f (sy) 1:02.4B 12/27 works
Grindstone Apr 27 6f 1:14 B (bullet) 1/15 works

Three recent, three ancient.  It\'s obvious that last work prior to the Derby on the Churchill surface has changed over the last dozen years or so.

I \"think\" 18 winners in the last 29 years had a bullet work in their final workout prior to the Derby on the Churchill surface.

I\'m guessing Larry Jones will Fire Friesan around the track in about 56.0 a couple days before the Derby.

[covelj70]

thanks JB

I think the last horse who reportedly wasn\'t training well that ran a big one was Speightstown in the Breeders Cup Sprint at Lone Star to blow up my 5 figure pick 4 after I had singled Singetary in the turf mile!

Sorry, couldn\'t let that one go, too too painful, still wake up with nightmares.

Won\'t breed any of my mares to Speightstown because of this....I know idiotic... but true.

[Michael D.]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Apologies if alot of this has been covered in
> other threads as I was traveling for the last few
> days.
>
> The closer we get to this Derby, the more wide
> open it looks to me.  Most lists have the same 5
> or 6 horses at the top and I think pretty strong
> cases can be made against all of them, at least
> for the win spot.  It could well be that the
> winner is the 7th betting choice or higher.  
>
> Below are my knocks against each of the top 6.
> Please note there are certainly things to like
> about each of them as well, I am only highlighting
> the issues here that I think makes them play
> against if the odds shake out consistent with
> where they are now.
>
> 1) I Want Revenge - The knock here is obivious,
> he\'s headed in the wrong direction.  This is the
> same argument around Big Brown after last year\'s
> Preakness.  Just like BB\'s Preakness win, IWR\'s
> Wood was visually very impressive which masks the
> fact that the numbers suggest the big gotham took
> alot out of the horse and he won the wood while
> bouncing and he will bounce even farther and
> harder in the derby.  (full disclosure that I have
> a 10-1 pool 2 futures bet on him which will cover
> my derby wagers so I am even more inclined to
> throw him out given that insurance policy)
>
> 2) Quality Road - The quarter crack and the same
> bounce issue as IWR.  I love the horse but he did
> go in the wrong direction in the Fla Derby which I
> would have been more willing to try to overlook if
> not for the foot issue.  They are now trying to
> baby him into the Derby with an easy breeze last
> weekend and only 1 more scheduled breeze (I think
> I read that, someone please correct me if I am
> wrong).  Anyway, unless he puts up a huge work
> between now and the Derby, he\'s a throwout as a
> horse that hasn\'t been able to train agressively
> with only 1 two turn race as a prep.
>
> 3) Dunkirk - looks good on the sheet figs/pattern
> (the best of anyone I believe on the pure
> numbers/pattern) but he was so wasted after the
> Fla Derby and he couldn\'t get past Quality Road in
> the Stretch.  Plus, he will have to go very wide
> coming from way back and there is no longer any
> kind of speed dual scenario to set up closers like
> there might have been before Pamplemouse and Old
> Fashioned got hurt.  Don\'t like him on top, maybe
> for a piece underneath, ala Curlin.
>
> 4) Friesan Fire - anothoer one with obvious
> knocks, 7 week layoff, no prep beyond 1 1/16th and
> hasn\'t ever run a very fast number.  Also, 25 days
> between race and first work back.  Lots to dislike
> here at single digit odds.
>
> 5) Pioneer of the Nile - never been on the dirt,
> his first trainer has publicly said that he moves
> better on the poly and turf than on the dirt, he
> has never run fast enough and he his jockey seems
> like he is passing on him to get on another mount.
>  No thanks for me.  Reminds me too much of Col
> John last year.  If he works big at CD, he will be
> 5 or 6 to 1 which is terrible value.
>
> 6) Chocolate Candy - my pick for this year\'s wise
> guy horse.  Hasn\'t run fast enough to win this and
> will be coming from out of it with little pace to
> close into.  No thanks for me here either.
>
> To me, horses like Papa Clem, Regal Ransom and
> Desert Party all look just as interesting as the
> top 6 but will be much much better prices.  Each
> of these 3 has knocks against them as well but I
> should be getting at least 20 to 1 on these as
> opposed to single digits on the top 6.



You really can\'t select DP at greater than 20-1 and toss CC at less than 10-1 when they closed at 16-1 and 18-1 respectively. And you\'re tossing Pioneer at 5-1 when he closed at 9-1 with Garrett looking like the jock.


> One thing to keep in mind is that every derby
> winner since Smarty has posted a monster bullet
> work between their last prep and the Derby.  No
> big work, not on my ticket.  For the last two
> years, each of the top 2 have fit that bill.
> Given how these horses are babied into the races
> now, I think we need that big work as a baromoter
> of who is fit enough to do it.
>
> Thoughts?


How about Giant Oak? Has a decent figure over the track, and what could be a  solid pattern after last. Don\'t know about that Crafty Prospector on bottom though.

[covelj70]

thanks for the thoughts.

In terms of POTN, I said IF he works big, he would be 5-1.  Just like Col John, if people like how he breezes, his odds will come way down.

I also said Choc Candy would be the wise guy worse so I think he will be lower than where he closed in the FP #3.

Not sure where DP will go off off but I think at least 15-1 which would be good value.

Giant Oak doesn\'t do much for me as I hated the way he ran in the stretch in the Illinois Derby but I will take another look, good thought.

thanks

[Halo Fire]

Larry Jones has a one mile breeze scheduled for Saturday. Same pattern as Hard Spun.

[Michael D.]

Yeah, GO\'s stretch run wasn\'t too pretty. That\'s where the Crafty Prospector might come in.

Plenty of debate over the eventual odds of the Cal horses. Pioneer can\'t take Col John type money without Gomez though, especially after Col John\'s run last year. Don\'t know what the price on DP is going to be, since the people who know best don\'t bet (allegedly).

Papa Clem is interesting. Ridden to get the lead last, but wound up 4th three wide. How many horses wind up finishing strong after that kind of start? Is he another Gayego though?

[analizethis]

One of the skills necessary to cash tickets is understanding which of the top betting selections to leave in.

Be careful of being totally submissive of the betting publics selection based, in part, on the following recent history. Since 2001 a little more than 4 entries per year or 23.4% of the total starters have been less than 10 - 1 but never has a trifecta come home without at least one of these runners. As a matter of fact 45.8% of the top three over these 8 eight years has been a single digit on the tote board and  3 of 8 favorites (a higher than average 37.5%) have won with another (Empire Maker) second. Even 2005 with the 14th betting fav over the 20th still had the second fav 9/2 Afleet Alex rounding out the tri (for a six figure number as I recall).

Last year the seminar directed me to key DC and EB in the exotics and I cashed a decent ticket on the day because I also happened to include BB in the process.

[jett]

If my memory serves me well it was said that Thunder Gulch couldn\'t pass a claiming horse in his pre Derby work out.--Jett

[smalltimer]

Correct.  He worked Hard Spun at Kee on Apr 23 1m, and then on Apr 30 at Churchill a bullet 5f in 57.3 1/26 works.

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

A few comments:

1.  The biggest disagreement I have with what you wrote is you saying Chocolate Candy is not fast enough to win.  If there is one thing TG users should have learned in the past year or so is that translating synthetic numbers to dirt numbers does not work.  Chocolate Candy is faster than I Want Revenge was on synthetic, Chocolate Candy is faster than Papa Clem was on synthetic.  I Want Revenge is certainly fast enough to win (if he runs his race, which is a big question), and I am betting that when we see the Papa Clem number off his 3w/4w trip in the Arkansas Derby that he is also fast enough to win.  Chocolate Candy, if he handles the dirt, is plenty fast enough to win.  

2. I think your first point on Dunkirk is more important than your conclusion.  Assuming Haskin is correct when he quotes Thorograph as having DUnkirk pairing up negative 3/4s in the Florida Derby, then Dunkirk is looking awfully good on the numbers.  With 5 weeks rest and a solid test in the Florida Derby under his belt, he may be the \"dirt\" contender most likely to run a new top.  (synthetic contenders running new \"dirt tops\" aside).  I don\'t think the price will be great on Dunkirk, but he looks very solid to me.  

3. Don\'t know what numbers you are looking at that make Desert Party look interesting, but I thought I saw his sheet before the UAE derby with a bunch of 4\'s and 5\'s, but I could be mistaken.  

4.  Jerry claims Regal Ransom is interesting, I guess i will have to see his sheet.  He looked completely exhausted at the end of the UAE Derby at 1 1/8th over a track that historically plays shorter the actual distances.  E.g. Captain Steve got 1 1/4 over it, plus a few other distance challenged horses could get longer distances there.  I don\'t see Regal Ransom doing anything other than setting the pace until Johhny V. says \"go\" and Quality Road passes him.

5.  Papa Clem will be sitting on a huge \"jump up\" new top after the Arkansas Derby.  I know the price will be juicy, but hard to like him back in 3 weeks after the big top.

6.  Agree with Michael D\'s points about your odds.  I think you are off there, but only time will tell.  I don\'t care how fast Pioneer of the Nile works out, I don\'t see 5-1 on him.  Can\'t compare him to Colonel John.  Completely different class of 3 year olds.  Last year\'s class was awful.  The public had to bet on somebody besides Big Brown.  This year\'s class has some quality horses that will draw attention, especially the big 3 of I Want Revenge, Quality Road and Dunkirk.  Pioneer won\'t be shorter than any of them, which means he isn\'t going to be 5-1.

7.  I have posted a lot already on IWR and QR, and I have trouble being partial on them because I have overlaid futures odds on horses that will be pretty short in the Derby.  I agree they look like \"bounce\" lines without looking at the intangibles and \"trusting your eyes\".  I will also say that \"trusting my eyes\" was a bad idea when I watched Big Brown win the Preakness \"for fun\" and stopped betting against him in the Belmont.  We all know how that worked out.  But I will \"trust my eyes\" again and say that I would dismiss the backward move for I Want Revenge, to a degree, and upgrade the Quality Road figure as well.  IWR had no chance to run in the Wood until halfway through the stretch.  When he had an opening, he shot through and opened up 1 1/2 lengths on the field, under a hand ride.  I was struggling after the Gotham of trying to guess at what kind of race I would want for IWR in the Wood to set him up for the Derby.  A pairup would have been too fast.  A standard regression would be a bad sign.  What happened was about as perfect as one could hope for.   A regression that was mostly caused by the bad start and patient ride that Talamo gave him.  He ran hard for 1/8 of a mile or so.  Giving him more time to recover for the Derby.  Call it a backward move, I say he got some schooling on how to handle crowded spots and sit further back off the pace.  As for Quality Road, I upgrade the figure for the way he \"re-broke\" when challenged.  Not many horses can do that after pressing the pace the way he did.  I am not a pace handicapper and I certainly am glad that Class Handicapper is not to expound endlessly on pace, but I give it a little weight and some of my \"pace handicaping\" friends say that Quality Road is an absolute standout on pace figures.  His ability to press a strong pace then still kick at the end is matched by nobody in the field.  The trick will be to do it at 1 1/4, over a track that may not favor speed, the way the GP track did.  But with several key \"pace\" scratches, it looks like QR may get a nice trip stalking the longshot Regal Ransom.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

thanks for the thoughts.

1) In terms of Chocolate Candy, even if he jumps up syn to dirt, he has to circle the field into what looks to be a moderate pace.  He better jump up massively in order to make noise.  If he was good enough, he would have caught Pioneer of the Nile in the stretch of the Santa Anita Derby.  I just don\'t see him fitting and again, he seems like the wise guy play to me so his odds will be far too low given the concerns above

2) In terms of quality road, if he didn\'t have the quarter crack and he was being trained more aggressively, he would be my pick for the reasons you stated but I think there is alot of risk to him hanging in the stretch and not showing the same explosive restart that he did in the Fla Derby because it will be tough for him to be fit enough given the limited 2 turn experience and the limited works (if he really is to only have 1 more).

3) I agree with you that Dunkirk is the dirt horse most likely to run his race and could therefore be the key to the race.

4) On IWR, as I argued last year before Big Brown\'s Belmont, there was no \"good\" number for him to run in the preakness and there was no \"good\" number for IWR in the Wood.  Once you put in the huge effort and come back quickly off of the huge number, the damage is done.  No one would ever do it but the right thing to do would have been to train him up to the Derby (which we would all be criticizing) or skip the Derby all together.  Again, I recognize what I am suggesting no one would ever do but once that big effort is put in, your options become very limited.

thanks again for the thoughts. going to be a fun 17 days!