A case can be made to throw out the top 6 choices for the Derby

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

It will be interesting.  Just the huge disparity of opinion on this board, most of using TG as our main handicapping tool, will tell you interesting of a betting proposition this derby will be.

It is completely irrelevant that Chocolate Candy couldn\'t catch Pioneer of the Nile on pro-ride crap in the SA Derby.  That fact is useless as far as I am concerned.  Way too many examples of synthetic form/results being meaningless on dirt.  If CC is better bred/suited for dirt than POTN, he will beat him in kentucky. And i think he is.

As for IWR.  Synthetics skew his form as well.  Wow, huge 9 point new top in the Gotham.  Must bounce next time or at least regress the next race, then fall apart in the Derby.  Yes, if the 9 point new top was on the same surface as his old top, I would agree.  I say the 9 point new top is meaningless again.  The Gotham was his first dirt race and his synthetic tops previously don\'t matter.  Why is it so much harder for people/handicappers to get used to treating synthetics and dirt differently, when we have been doing it with turf and dirt for years.  Did anybody read Curlin dropping off 3 or 4 points first time turf as a sign he was \"falling apart\"?  Nope.  He was not a turf horse.  He returned to dirt and ran back to his dirt numbers.  If his career had started turf and he had been running 1\'s and 2\'s for a year, which was about his limit on turf, then he went to the dirt and ran negative 3, we would have all called him a \"huge jump up\" and bet against.  Nope.  Different surface.  Not saying IWR is a  Curlin, but who knows.  The negative 3.5 is as fast as most of Curlin\'s best races.

[Flighted Iron]

Covelj70,

 Interesting points and given the potential lack of value for
your 1-5,we couldn\'t hope for better.One of your also elgibles
is somewhat inspiring,although I must disagree with #6.

 Fresh horse with great spacing from 1 of only four guys in the
5,000 club.Please clarify,but hasn\'t CC run a deuce on the poly?
What are the chances this one freaks going long on the dirt
similar to Bayshore winner has freaked going short.I love the
breeding and double digit value considering the lesser breds from poly
to dirt with bigger move ups.

with respect and best of luck,
mjs

[Flighted Iron]

Jimbo66,

 Giving respect to your point with Curlin as your example I
think you\'re dead on however giving respect to the pattern
of a horse\'s effort on any surface for that matter I think
IWR is heading in the wrong direction with the wrong navigator.

respectfully,
mjs

[SoCalMan2]

Jimbo makes the good point that maybe the 9 point jump for IWR in the Gotham was not as big a jump as it would appear.  However, there are two ways to look at the jump -- first, a horse moving from one established level to new territory (this is the issue when the Gotham is characterized as a 9 point jump); Second, in absolute terms, a young 3 yo running too fast needs time to recuperate.  On this basis, it is not as important what the horse\'s established level was.  Basically, it is the idea that a horse that runs too fast early in its 3 yo career needs to recuperate from that before it can get back to it.  

The problem is that some occaisonal 3 yo\'s have handled the big number for a short period of time but most do not.  To me, the obvious ones that handled it for long enough were Big Brown and Smarty Jones.  The obvious ones that did not handle it were horses like Bellamy Road and Sinister Minister.  The study that has been exhibited on this site before has indicated that for the most part, an early three year old running a huge fig is not going to come back anywhere near it by Derby time, so the prejudice needs to be that the horse will be hindered by the effort.  

What i am trying to figure out is whether there is some reason that IWR should be considered in the exceptional category.  So far, i have not come up with it and i tend towards feeling comfortable throwing him out of my superfecta entirely.  However, my mind is still open and still exploring it all.

[miff]

\"I agree with you that Dunkirk is the dirt horse most likely to run his race and could therefore be the key to the race\"

Cov/Jim


Great game with the differing opinions. Dunkirk is THE wise guy horse around NY.My toss off his general lack of foundation,last gut wrencher (following a 9+ point forward move) and lack of tactical speed.He has no chance if he draws poorly,imo.

Lots of ink for the phony wide fig\'d CC who got waxed by the,ahem, \"slower\" POTN who raced completely out of his comfort zone.Probably CC received a comparable fig to POTN,not even close who was best, all racing things considered.Keep reading about the breeding factor re transfer of form from the garbage synths to dirt.Think it\'s still a little early for hard conclusions.


Mike

[jimbo66]

Socalman2,

Great point.  And I agree 100%.  Whether you consider the 9 point move up legitimately a 9 point move up or not (I say \"not\"), you still have the problem of having a horse running a negative 3 in April of his 3 year old season.  For this reason, I would agree that it is tough to take 4-1 on IWR and he is a good \"bet against\" (at those odds).

The number of horses that get to that level and can duplicate it in the derby are few.  The best year I can think of for exemplifying this was the year that Bellamy Road had a negative 5, Bandini had a negative 3, Afleet Alex had a negative 2 and Greeley\'s Galaxy had a negative 2.   None repeated in the Derby.

However, it isn\'t impossible, as we know that Big Brown and Smarty Jones did do it.  And Afleet came back and did it in the Preakness and Belmont.  You are basically betting and asking the question \"Is I Want Revenge\" as good as Big Brown or Smarty Jones\".  Maybe, maybe not.  What are the true odds on that question? 4-1 is probably not enough.

[Uncle Buck]

To your point about \"is IWR exceptional\" I would have to say yes based on the case evidence. He\'s proven to be very fast and he\'s also proven he can overcome traffic and hard bumps. What other questions would you have other than \"can he do it again?\" Lately, the last 5 years or so, 3YO\'s have been \"doing it again\" in the big race. War Emblem \"did it again\" in \'02, SMarty in \'06, and BB last year. That\'s a decent sample.

Talamo switched IWR off nicely down the backside in the Wood - a great sign for a young colt IMO. The effort was a backwards move but the performance was useful in proving his mettle. If he trains well over the CD strip and appears bright and healthy in his works, he\'s a must-use for me at 4-1. I\'ve taken the Derby chaulk the last two years and with the help of the TG seminar in picking exotic contenders, I have made a lot of money in the Derby. Enough to pay off all my debts!

I don\'t like betting chaulk but I will use this one aggressively if he acts healthy and happy pre race. Blend him with legit price horses and it might just work out well. It might not too. I\'m OK with either outcome.

[ronwar]

covelj70 mentioned it earlier, commenting on JB\'s comment that \"something\" always happens after young 3 year olds run that fast too soon and the sample in the archives prove it out.  As it relates to I Want Revenge, maybe the stumble is just the beginning and the weak field made his win look better than it really was.

The same goes for Quality Road.  Perhaps the quarter crack is just the beginning.  Taking into account how the track was playing and where the main contender had to come from to get into contention, perhaps made the win look better than it was.

There is a ringing in my ear saying the numbers are the numbers regardless of how good they looked earning them.  An off is an off, right?

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- regarding the surface switch thing, as pointed out here before, most of the ones that jumped up going to dirt only ran that well once.

SJ had a big figure as a 2yo (as does QR). Big Brown did not, but he went after that to a move-up guy, which may have altered the equation. One would think they will be all over Mullins at CD. If not, those guys really shouldn\'t be running a racetrack.

Having said all that, wouldn\'t mind being where you are with 55-1 in the futures. Makes it a lot easier to bet the race.

First two in Dubai were 15 clear, moved forward a lot.

Final pre-Derby package out later today.

[P-Dub]

Horses stumble at the break and get quarter cracks for reasons other than the fact they have recently run fast.

[flushedstraight]

A relative newcomer to the Derby scene in 07, Jones was criticized by many leading up to the race for his handling of Hard Spun, for the spacing of his preps with the 5 week break into the derby, for not running in the paceless Blue Grass, for his \"too fast\" last work. The end result was a bang-up race, a 2 3/4 new top at CD, a rare result (for horses whose names don\'t end with the letter o).

I\'m not too quick to assume the 7 weeks off is a negative as opposed to a positive factor here. Same thing goes for getting the 10 furlongs. Consider the 06 three year old champ was another AP Indy who had nothing over a mile heading into the Preakness, and the rest was history.

I see the burning question as whether the move forward in his last was legitimate or strictly due to the slop, as AP Indy\'s often freak on off tracks. Does he run back to his Risen Star on a fast CD strip? Another X factor in the mix for a main contender. With the possibility that the LA Derby # is legit, and given that with his style and a decent post he can maybe work out his own lucky trip, he\'s a tough toss for a trainer who\'s done a great job here the past two years with the two placings.

Another one in here with an expected price that seems to make him too short to key, yet no easy throw out.

[Michael D.]

flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A relative newcomer to the Derby scene in 07,
> Jones was criticized by many leading up to the
> race for his handling of Hard Spun, for the
> spacing of his preps with the 5 week break into
> the derby, for not running in the paceless Blue
> Grass, for his \"too fast\" last work. The end
> result was a bang-up race, a 2 3/4 new top at CD,
> a rare result (for horses whose names don\'t end
> with the letter o).
>
> I\'m not too quick to assume the 7 weeks off is a
> negative as opposed to a positive factor here.
> Same thing goes for getting the 10 furlongs.
> Consider the 06 three year old champ was another
> AP Indy who had nothing over a mile heading into
> the Preakness, and the rest was history.
>
> I see the burning question as whether the move
> forward in his last was legitimate or strictly due
> to the slop, as AP Indy\'s often freak on off
> tracks. Does he run back to his Risen Star on a
> fast CD strip? Another X factor in the mix for a
> main contender. With the possibility that the LA
> Derby # is legit, and given that with his style
> and a decent post he can maybe work out his own
> lucky trip, he\'s a tough toss for a trainer who\'s
> done a great job here the past two years with the
> two placings.
>
> Another one in here with an expected price that
> seems to make him too short to key, yet no easy
> throw out.


The best case for Friesan is Hard Spun and 8Belles coming in 2nd. Jones knows how to get them to run well on the big day. As for the odds, it\'s now looking like 7-2 or 4-1 on IWR, 5 or 6-1 on QR, 7-1 on Dunk, 8 or 9-1 on FF, 11-1 on Pioneer, 18-1 on CC, and 20-1 on PC. If you like FF, I certainly wouldn\'t let 8-1 or 9-1 stand in your way.

With Mafaaz now out, if Char Man doesn\'t go, Pletcher might have the option of running speedball Join In The Dance. If that one goes, and if Regal Ransom runs, the pace is going to be strong.