Covelj,
Not sure I see what you see.
She is the fastest fillie in the race. All three races as a 3 year old have been with the \"h\". We can debate whether that necessarily means she could have gone faster or not and the issue of \"even if she could have gone faster that day, it doesn\'t mean she will have the energy to use in the future\". However, she is the fastest filly and seems to have a tactical edge over Justwhistledixie in that she has positional speed to secure a nice trip. Also, average offspring of Dixie Union develop 2 points from 2 to 3, and Justwhistledixie has already developed 3 points. That could be offset by the fact that she has never moved backwards, which is a nice line. Very similar to Friesan Fire on the colt side. The issue with both Justwhistledixie and Friesan Fire is that they each have only 1 figure that would get them the win. At 10-1 or better, I don\'t mind taking \"one figure horses\", but Justwhistledie will be a solid second choice around 3-1, I would guess. FF may be closer to that 10-1, but in a 20 horse field. I will be curious to see how TGJB feels about FF and how he weighs the \"never moved backwards and has 7 weeks rest\" angle against \"he only has one figure that makes him competitive\".
Not sure I see anybody else to beat Rachel Alexandra, unless you play the \"jump up\" for Stardom Bound. Just Jenda is mildly interesting, but that back up in the last is pretty bad. Dream Play is fast, but she isnn\'t going 1 1/8 and I don\'t think she is running (although I could be wrong about that)
Last point Covelj, although it is just an opinion. I think your odds line is off here, similar to your Derby one. 2-5 seems highly unlikely. 4-5 seems much more likely. And that difference matters in the prices we get for taking the other fillies to beat her.
