Putting value in the Derby Super???

[jimbo66]

Having seen the TG special put up this week, I can see what the host saw in Regal Ransom.  Back to his 2 year old top last time out, if he can move forward two points and get a 1w/1w trip, he could win (unless IWR or QR run their tops).  However, I don\'t think this horse wants any part of 1 1/4, suspect he may not even run in the Derby, and think his figure last time out was very much enhanced by a pronounced speed bias.

That said, there does seem to be another interesting longshot.  I think West Side Bernie could be very interesting at a very good price.  I know what I am about to point out is a bit \"iffy\" from a traditional sheet handicapping view, but take a look at the 4 races this horse has run on dirt, and their progression.  A 6 in August of his 2 year old season, then following a couple poly races, he runs a 3 to finish his 2 year old season, which is a very respectable level for a Derby contender.  His first race on dirt this season he ran a 3, pairing his 2 year old top, another healthy sign.  Following a poly race, he then jumps up to a 0 in his final prep for the Derby.  A \"dirt line\" of 6-3-3-0 with just 3 points of development from 2 to 3.  The three points is average development for a son of Bernstein, but even if he just pairs up the 0, off the four weeks rest, he is a contender for the super, with a decent trip. If he moves forward, which I give him a 20 to 25% chance to do, he is very strong for the exotics and even a win contender (again assuming QA and IWR don\'t run back to their tops).

West Side Bernie could be this year\'s Tale of Ekati or Denis of Cork, injecting value into a superfecta that looks to me that will have several logical horses at the top of it.

Thoughts?

[RICH]

Jimbo

His 2yr old line is what I want to see in a derby winner. Put a thumb over that poly debacle and the line looks great, I consider him one of the most likely to move forward.

[girly]

I hope so- I\'ve got him and CC in the first Derby future-Don\'t know what to think one way or another about Smith on CC now.

[big18741]

His Wood might have been too much of a jump up.I\'d expect him to back up some,but if he draws inside I\'d consider.He did miss a little time after the Wood(colic?) I put Musket Man in the same boat-maybe too much of a jump-but an inside post helps.

Win Willy looks nice underneath.Hope they decide to run him-draw good and toss MC Berry.

[big18741]

Jimbo

TOE and DOC both backed up a couple points into the tri/super.Toe had an inside post and Borel gave a 1w1w from the 16 hole.

On pattern West Side Bernie looks good,but that was a 3.75 pt new top crossing 0.Maybe too much of an effort in his last prep?? Don\'t like Elliot to give him much help either in terms of trip.It\'s one thing to be a passenger on the fastest horse(Smarty) who was close to the front.Bernie is gonna need a good navigator with that running style.Does he want another furlong? Leaning to toss,but would consider with an inside post and one good work.

Desert Party is the odds horse I\'m having trouble tossing.He improved a lot from his two year old top and he jumped way up in his last.In general neither of those are positives,but I keep coming back to him.Sire Street Cry loved this track,and I don\'t think his son will mind another furlong.Any thoughts on him pairing up into the tri or super?

[mlnolan00]

Supposedly he had a great work yesterday at CD.  Ended up having to split two horses that worked out in front of him-Zito\'s Just a Coincidence to the inside and some other horse to his outside.  Just a Coincidence is not a bad horse, and I guess DP passed him very easily.

The horse showed some guts too winning that stakes at SAR last summer.  I know it was only like a 4 horse field but he got dirt in his face an accelerated through a spot on the rail and showed some tenacity.

He\'s obviously a nice horse, and he\'s had rest and time to acclimatize, but just keep coming back to that Dubai thing...

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

west side bernie looks very interesting to me underneath as well but I don\'t think you can dismiss Regal Ransom\'s ability to get the 1 1/4 without thinking the same thing about West Side Bernie.

West Side Bernie is by a miler with Gilded Time as the dam sire.  He also hung quite a bit in the Wood as I thought he should have been able to win given where he was in the stretch.

I think both Regal Ransom and West Side Bernie are both live underneath, as is Papa Clem and Musket Man.

If Quality Road keeps working well, he will be tough to throw out but he did bounce in the Fla Derby and is showing some of the signs of a horse who isn\'t fully recovered from the big effort (trainer said he lost a bunch of weight, etc).

I am more willing to toss IWR than Quality Road.

There is certainly great value to be had in this derby and the works and post draws between now and then will be critical

[BitPlayer]

Jimbo -

I see two issues with WSB:

How solid is the Wood figure?  I always question figures where I see multiple big jumps in the same race.

I\'d like to see some evidence that he can rally between horses instead of going wide.

[Silver Charm]

>I\'d like to see some evidence that he can rally between horses instead of going wide.

Or longer than 3/16ths of a mile. That is the problem with this one. Short burst that always flattens out. Go back and look at the tapes and do not be deceived by the ilusion of others behind him backing up as they are getting more tired.

[jimbo66]

Big,

I don\'t hate Desert party, as I may use him underneath a bit as well, but hard for me to accept your logic that the \"jump up\" from West Side Bernie is too much, when had a great 2 year old foundation, while you are OK with the jump up from Desert Party, who had a bigger jump up in his last, with much less foundation as a 2 year old, and Desert Party figures 1/2 the price of West Side Bernie.

One more point on the \"jump up\" from West Side Bernie.  I know TGAB has warned me quite a few times up at the Saratoga Seminar that \"adjusting figures\" is a slippery slope, but I am slow to learn lessons, so I am adjusting West Side Bernie\'s first race this year at GP.  I am not saying the figure is wrong, but he earned that 3 running against the grain of a severe speed bias.  I am upgrading that figure a bit in my handicapping, in which case the \"jump up\" is not 3 points.  Plus, like I said, he has ideal 2 year old foundation.

I hear your points on TOE and DOC, but I don\'t believe those that cashed the 52k superfecta had to give any of it back because those horses got good trips.  Fact is they were both overlaid odds.  I won\'t revisit that, as I posted for weeks before last year\'s derby about TOE (but still missed the super because I refused to put Eight Belles on any ticket, despite the fact she was the only contender besides Big Brown with more than one figure that made her a contender - one of the worst handicapping blunders ever, amongst many candidates for that honor.....)

[jimbo66]

Bit,

I have no issues with the Wood figure.  I will let others make the case that the figure is wrong, as I don\'t see it.  I believe IWR is a legit top contender in the derby, despite his pattern, and the fact is that IWR did burst away 2 lengths on West Side Bernie once IWR got clear, but then the last 50 yards, he didn\'t open up any further.  Some will look at that as a sign that IWR\'s Wood wasn\'t that strong, but I will look at it the other way, in that West Side Bernie is a decent horse.  

Covelj,

I didn\' say I liked the breeding on West Side Bernie, as I would agree it looks like a stretch to go 1 1/4.  However, I will take West Side Bernie\'s pattern/sheet over a horse like Regal Ransom any day of the week an twice on Sunday.  RR ran 1 good race at 2 in a 4 horse field, now ran 1 good race on an extreme speed bias at 3 where there was only 1 other legit horse in the race, so they finished 15 lengths clear of the field.  

Guys,

Sure, you can find a few knocks on WSB.  But there is no such thing as a 40-1 without knocks.  If he was 4-1, I would consider his \"flaws\" as serious and call him an underlay, but the whole idea in finding a longshot is to find a few positives that make the horse a viable contender, and great value, not to find a knock.  The whole world can find knocks on a 40-1!

[SoCalMan2]

What about Giant Oak as a value adder to the superfecta?  If you ignore his grass and synthethic racing, you all of a sudden have a horse than ran a \'2\' as a 2 year old going two turns at Churchill Downs.  Yes, he ran two bad races at the fairgrounds but he took up in one and had an off track in the other.  Comes back to chicago and pairs up his top of a \"2\" in the Illinois Derby.  Now, i will grant that a \'2\' is not good enough, but if you look at this horse, he rarely gets to run on fast dirt and he seems to be coming around. With a foundation of a \'2\' as a two year old and a reconfirmation of that number in his last race suggests to me that the horse is ready to make a forward move.  Of course, there are reasons to poo poo the horse, but he should be a hefty price and those reasons are not so serious to throw out a horse that can run behind three favorites and still make a nice super (thinking like Imawildandcrazyguy behind Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin). There is a horse coming from Dubai with a similar pattern -- he too may be worthwhile.  If you figure he did not like the phony stuff at Santa Anita, then maybe he is another coming around at the right time.