Win Willy

[APny]

I haven\'t heard anyone say anything about this horse even though he\'s one of the faster horses of all the entries.  With a zero and a bounce to a 1...couldn\'t he run a new top in the derby?  I know he\'s coming back off short rest but he did have trouble in the last race.  He also made huge closing moves at OP and if you paid any attention to that meet you know that speed was dominant and it was very tough to close a lot of ground.  He\'s sired by derby winner Monarchos and should be HUGE odds.  Not sure he\'s good enough to win but hard to ignore in the exotics.

[Leamas57]

I agree. He wasn\'t fourth by much and though it looks as if he were used,he wasn\'t losing ground to the leaders.I think he could be the Giacoma if they go too crazy on the front.

[flushedstraight]

AP,
Agreed. Everyone saw the Rebel when he circled the field going wide but he looked pretty good racing in traffic in his previous race. Only 5 other horses in the race but he was trapped pretty good between 4 of them before bursting through for the win... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nh5EtDlKkc

At the least, it means he may be able to run in a crowd in traffic and not have to go wide. Unless it\'s a 2001 or 2005 type of freak show, the chance of him cracking the tri plummet with a wide trip. Wouldn\'t mind seeing them put Borel on him either which would hurt the odds but they\'ll still be crazy. 16-1 in the last future pool was a joke, he\'ll be twice that minimum and add value to all pools.

I also admit that a decent case can be made for half the field. If Ron Anderson was \"very, very confused\" choosing between only 2 after talking to their trainers and jockey \"at length\", I\'m that confused times 10. Win Willy might just be a cop-out for me... so I can keep my sanity and not take capping the race too seriously, and still have a shot at a decent score if the chips fall the right way. I wonder that with the fave winning the last 2 years, if people have forgotten how ridiculous this race usually is, how many really good horses have finished up the track and how many forgettables have sneaked into the top 3.

[covelj70]

Flushed,

I think you make an excellent point here about how the lower priced horses winning in recent years is making people forget how random this race can be and little sense it makes to take short prices on these horses that have so many questions surrounding them.

I stupidly forgot that myself last year.

[flushedstraight]

Here\'s a bit of Derby quirkiness, although maybe it can be logically explained away one by one and considered irrelevant.

Eight of the last ten Travers winners raced in the Derby. Besides Street Sense, the other seven all finished out of the triple.

My conclusion... just because you can run a relatively fast 10 furlongs on the dirt guarantees you nothing in here.