POTN,shades of slow rat Giacomo?

[miff]

POTN may wind up 17th slowest going in,a la Giacomo,according to pure TG figs.History repeats?


Mike

[Uncle Buck]

Baffert factor Mike! Sheriffs has a history of conditioning slow plodding rats (at least slow plodding rats in TG perspective). Baffert does not

[jimbo66]

Miff,

I like being a broken record.  POTN is not the 17th slowest coming in.  It is indeterminant how fast he is going in.  

Giacomo was legitimately slow on everybody\'s figures, not just TG.  And his races were dirt.

POTN is kind of \"split\" amongst the fig-makers.  TG and Beyer have him slow, while Rags has him a bit faster,

Now, if POTN does \"jump up\" and win the Derby, I would like to ghost-write the Preakness analysis for TGJB.  It will go something like \"lots of horses jump up going from synthetic to dirt for the first time, but very few hold the form.  Expect a backward move from POTN, possibly a big backward move, putting him out of the superfecta in the Preakness\"  

[miff]

Jim,

Was speaking strictly about numbers on a piece of paper without regard for surface, but slower than Flying Private going in?.Ya gotta be tanked up on Kool Aid to believe that POTN has never run a race as fast as at least 10 in here that have better figs.Someone suggested deducting like 3 points synth to dirt but to me thats like playing Russian Roulette.I agree the move up of others who went synth to dirt have nothing to do with this particular horse.I think JB went into this somewhat in a post.

Hows this,POTN handles the dirt and runs his usual too slow fig and gets nothing.I know his figs are slow but unlike some of the phony wide fig\'d plodders in here, he has a smart turn of foot.I know only on synth so far but I give him a punchers chance because of that one factor. There is no substitute for gas in racing.


Mike

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- if any horse jumps 4 points synth/dirt yeah, I\'ll be tossing him the next time. Especially on 2 weeks rest.

Just saw Ragozin\'s Derby stuff for the first time. Holy smoke. Miff-- you ain\'t kidding about the differences.

[miff]

JB,

POTN looks to be sitting \"dead red\" on Rags, on yours his pattern is fine to me also but he\'s painfully synth slow.


Mike

[Ill-bred]

I don\'t see much similarity between the two. Giacomo was a pure sustained pace runner without much turn of foot. POTN has legitimate speed.

[miff]

Ill,

Half jokingly, I meant they were both like 17th slowest going on pure TG figs, totally agree that Giacomo had no gas at all compared to POTN.

Mike

[TGJB]

Right, pattern\'s fine, and a new top figures soon, if he likes the surface. But he is slow going in, and it would have to be a BIG new top.

Give me 5-1 head to head with Lukas\' horse? He\'ll be 40-1.

[miff]

\"Give me 5-1 head to head with Lukas\' horse? He\'ll be 40-1\"


JB,

You have to give me 5-1, you have the faster Lukas horse, but being a sport, I\'ll bet all you want even up and I\'ll take the slower POTN.

Mike

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

How many of these \"too slow\" horses coming from synthetic tracks have to move up before you stop considering them too slow?  I am not arguing for POTN, as I don\'t like him, but it keeps happening.  Papa Clem was a big move up, first time on a dry track, after the synthetic races, I Want Revenge we have talked about, the Dubai World Cup winner, and these are just from the \"big name\" recent horses.  Others did it in the past too.  You don\'t see a pattern yet or a reason to change your handicapping thinking (if not the figures?)

[TGJB]

Miff-- born at night, but not last night.

[miff]

\"Miff-- born at night, but not last night\"


...hee,hee, throw the line in the water, sometimes you catch a big fish.Seriously,the Lukas horse has proven dirt form/figs,POTN may not be able to stand up on dirt.I really have no doubt that IF(big if) he handles the dirt, he will outrun at least 10-15 horses that have faster TG figs than he has, going in.


Mike

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- as I pointed out at the time, a few weeks ago a bunch of horses coming synth/dirt ran without improvement (it was the weekend of the Sunland Derby). A few did improve.

The ones that prefer dirt will improve. The ones that don\'t won\'t. Some of the ones that do prefer it will explode, either because they have in effect been prepped and prepped without having a chance to run their race, or because training on synth gets horses really fit, or for some other reason.

Note-- when I talk about synth here, I\'m not talking about Cushion, which is like dirt.

There is also the issue of figure (and field) compression, which has been discussed here at length.

And finally, this-- California is by far the best at stopping drug use. Specifically, they are the only one doing blood testing for Clenbuterol. Raceday Clenbuterol-- which doesn\'t make it into the urine in time to be tested for-- is rumored to be the drug of choice for several top trainers.

By the way, anyone know what type of synthetic those horses train over in Dubai?

[big18741]

I believe it\'s Tapeta.