MJellish

[Beginner]

Any one know if he will be posting his thoughts this year?  He had some great analysis last year and also hit a big number on Derby day.  MJ, if you\'re reading this, I would certainly love to read about your thoughts on KD2009.  Thanks.

[mjellish]

Yep, I\'m here and have some thoughts.  Willing to exchange ideas.  Headed to Cancun tomorrow.  Still waiting for more info and will be relaxing until Monday.  Get serious after that.  Start with this:

In my opinion this is more of a normal Kentucky Derby.  What I mean by that is that no one dominates the field like BB last year.  Yes there are a few that look very good.  But that is the case most years.  Point Given looked as good or better than any of this year\'s favorites and he still didn\'t get the trip.  The Derby trip is more of a crapshoot, which is the case this year.  20 horses in the gate, first time going classic distance, plus now the synthetics, etc.  

What I\'m saying is that this is a talented field and there are a number of horses that could win no matter who you pick depending upon how the race unfolds.  So we must look for value because it is going to take some luck to get the Tri or Super home this year.

On the one hand if I could eliminate one handicapping factor it would be how will the synthetics transfer to dirt.  Can PON move forward,etc. Very, very tough to figure.  

Then again, while the synthetic factor is frustrating, it also creates unknowns and therefore opportunity.  

That being said, much money will be on IWR, QR, PON, DU.  And I think the Tri may not have 2 of these.  If it does, so be it.  But I am not going to play it that way.  Pending final workouts, my key horse is:

I loved Friesan Fire\'s workout earlier this week.  Reminds me of Affirmed\'s Triple Crown workout.  Not many horses can workout 1 mile with more or less successively faster 1/8 mile splits.  Plus he chased another horse afterwards for another 3/16 or so.  This horse is going very well.  And I think his last race is underrated because of the slop.  Now I have watched that race over, and over, and over again, as well as the other races on the card that day.  And I still can\'t tell for sure if there was some type of tire rut that seemed to be helping the horses in the 3 path or so that day like often happens at certain tracks on sloppy days (see Breeders Cup 1995).

Well, so I am leaning towards keying on FF.

Thoughts...

[chrifron]

I was thinking you have a good point--I wish the LA Derby was on a dry track, so I could judge FF more clearly--he did show tactical speed in his FG races, which makes him a strong contender in this field--but you should hope to be getting 12-1 or more on him.  As I said in a different thread, whoever hits this race is going to make serious money. I followed TG\'s recommendations to a degree last year, and keyed BB and 8 Belles on top in the tri ($1700+ for a dollar-if I remember correctly) I was having a pretty bad day up until I cashed that ticket.

[big18741]

MJ

I\'ve seen most of the head ons of these final prep stretch runs but nothing after the wire.

Anything from the gallop outs that you\'ve seen or heard-positive or negative?

[HP]

MJ - I love POTN taking money and I think Fresian Fire stands the best upsetter chance of improving enough to take it.  

I can\'t see tossing IWR...QR is another story.  Let\'s see what happens in the next week.  

HP

[miff]

Mjellish,

FF will come to the derby with spacing of 7+ weeks.Data shows that in the last 23 derbies, 18 winners have had spacing of 21 to 28 days (3 were back within 14
days).Of those 18 winners in the 21-to-28 day range, 12 posted CD bullet works prior to the race.So much for the various theories about spacing, fast works.
Recent winners BB and Barbaro had \"longer\" spacing going in.

Are you one who feels that a sharp, fit,sound horse needs a certain amount of time between starts. These derby stats reveal that when a horse is in form cycle, spacing is not important unless the prior effort/s were off the charts and the horse presents being tired afterwards.Actually,some do not present being tired but still regress.

Anyway, was just curious if you liked FF because of the very long spacing, or otherwise.My experience is that many very fresh layoff types tend to pull in the return race,a kiss of death.

Good Luck!

Mike

[magicnight]

The six weeks for Hard Spun in \'07 worked out OK. I think you leave out this guy at your peril. One of the more likely ones to move up, I\'d say.

[Beginner]

Thanks for the insights.  I agree that this year\'s KD looks more like a 6 or 7 horse stampede than last year.  That said, someone\'s got to lead the stampede to the finish line.  I was leaning toward QR as the most likely winner and trying to build some exotics around him to get the “value”.  Then the quarter crack news broke and it was shades of BB last year.  I went the wrong way and took a stand against BB last year.  This year, I\'m inclined to dismiss the qc especially since McKinlay says it\'s fine and he\'s the same specialist who worked on BB.  I was at the BC in SA in October and I got a real good look at the pro ride surface - very strange looking stuff.  Anyone here ever touched the surface? – I’m curious to know what it feels like.  It looks like the old style insulation they blow into attics.  Either way, it doesn’t appear to me (granted, I’m likely the most inexperienced person on this board) that there’s any consistent data to indicate whether a horse will jump up from pro-ride to dirt (or synth to dirt). So as you say, that’s where the value may lie.  Personally, I will play POTN as a relatively slow horse and might throw him in the bottom of the super.  His former trainer’s comments keep ringing in my ear.  I played sports in college and when you read the scouting report and it said #10 can’t go to his left and doesn’t tend to score goals and his coach was quoted in the paper saying the same thing – you never thought the guy would become a goal scorer just because we happened to play the game on fieldturf that day.  It may be a poor analogy, but sometimes I have to rationalize with my own experiences.

[number5858]

While a lot has been said about Friesan Fire\'s performance in the LD, you shouldn\'t overlook his performance in the Lecomte. The track had a pretty strong speed bias that day, and FF closed against the bias making his performance even better than it looked. You have to love the AP Indy breeding for getting the Derby distance. His tactical speed should put him in position for a nice trip as long as he has a decent post position. FF looks like a definite contender to me.

While I like IWR, you have to downgrade his Gotham performance because it was also a a speed favoring track that day.

I have to upgrade Dunkirk\'s performance in the FD because he closed nicely against a strong speed bias. You also have to love his breeding to get the distance and the bullet works.